yoda

I don't see the reason for it... but it's @Deck Pic thread then

Above quoted is hr 42 at DCA sounding. Below is hr 48 sounding at DCA

I mean that's DCA at 06z. Sounding is firmly below freezing at every level and 32 at surface... so I have no idea why rain is considered the best guess precip type. It has freezing rain at 48 hours as it's best guess precip type too. Very odd

Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain?

Huh?

I edited it in just before you posted

Very odd 12z UKIE run... I think we can safely toss

Borrowing this from @RIC Airport

Beer blows. I hate carbonation, well, more the way it tastes, so I don't drink any soda or beer whatsoever. If I'm having an alcoholic drink, it better be something like on the rocks espresso martini or some Grey goose

I feel for the Orioles fans this morning https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/orioles-kyle-bradish-ucl-sprain-elbow-injured-list.html

I don't drink beer at all

Tastes like iced caramel macchiatto with extra caramel

42 looks tasty

I see Wes

Equates to a bit less snowfall though compared to the 06z run

12z ICON has the two banding idea... one across M/D line other across i66 corridor... can see this on the qpf map

LWX in their updated morning AFD disagrees (10am update) SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to the south and brings snow to the region. Most of the guidance has the surface low tracking near the I-64 corridor toward the lower Chesapeake Bay, though there is still some ensemble members that take a more northern track. The latest 06Z guidance, and the early 12Z guidance is indicating an uptick of QPF, particularly from Pendleton/Highland east toward the Blue Ridge. Even though surface temps will be marginal, around 29F-32F during the peak of the event, snow rates will be high and there is a good signal for banding somewhere in the area. As a result, have increased snow totals this morning to 4-6" in the Alleghenies, 3-5" in the Shenandoah Valley from Rockingham County northward, 2-4" north of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge, and 1-2"south of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Alleghenies and portions of the Potomac Highlands. Additional Watches, Warnings, and Advisories are likely to be issued later this afternoon. Stay tuned for additional updates on snow totals as the latest guidance comes in.

DC metro jackpot though of 3"

12z RGEM seems slower then the 12z NAM twins

Oh... yes the favored areas to get the most and the such... but a bit of a surprise to see URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 MDZ001-501-VAZ503-504-507-WVZ050-055-501>506-152300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible with localized amounts up to 8 inches possible along the higher western facing slopes of the Allegheny Front. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

My bar is 2". But yeah... 1-3 sounds good and let the chips fall where they may on anything more

You aren't just staying up Friday night?