yoda

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/difference/ Really cool link - h/t @CoastalWx

Thanks... hadn't seen that before either

May the Force be with us... or maybe, may the odds be ever in your favor?

Well LWX in their afternoon AFD have taken notice .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A low pressure system is expected to move up the East Coast and bring moderate to heavy rain to our region Sunday and Sunday night. Rain amounts could average an inch or two with isolated higher amounts. Temperatures will reach the middle to upper 40s west of the Blue Ridge with 50s to the east of Blue Ridge. As the primary low moves north along the East Coast Monday and Monday night, a secondary low could develop and follow the first low pressure system. This particular low pressure could bring a chance for snow showers to much of our region Monday night into Tuesday. Highs Monday mainly in the lower to middle 50s with highs Tuesday in the lower 40s with mainly 30s in the mountains. High pressure will bring a period of drier and colder air to the region Wednesday. Highs again on Wednesday could stay in the 40s across the region with 30s in the mountains.

I'm out on this threat

It's great to see you back and posting

DCA - 0.1"

I only see a T on the PNS above... but yeah I see

BWI is T

NOUS41 KLWX 111421 PNSLWX DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>508-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050>057-501>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-120221- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 921 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 The following are preliminary observations taken during the past 6 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to cooperative and CoCoRaHS observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/lwx. ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL MEASURED (inches) DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ...District of Columbia... Dalecarlia Reservoir 0.5 800 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer MARYLAND ...Allegany County... Potomac Park 2 NW 0.8 902 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Frostburg 0.6 856 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer ...Anne Arundel County... Pasadena 1 SE 0.7 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Crownsville 3 SSW 0.5 630 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Laurel 4 E 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Birdsville WSW 0.4 800 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Severn 2 W 0.4 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Bwi Airport T 700 AM 12/11 Official NWS Obs ...Baltimore County... Glyndon 1 WSW 1.5 415 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Long Green 2 NW 1.0 500 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Bentley Springs 1 E 1.0 545 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Catonsville 1 SSE 0.5 715 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Glyndon 1 SW 0.5 824 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Long Green 1 SW 0.4 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Baltimore City... Pikesville 3 SE 0.3 608 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Calvert County... Prince Frederick 1 W 0.8 800 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS North Beach 2 WNW 0.6 725 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Drum Point 2 N 0.5 700 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Prince Frederick 1 S 0.5 730 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Dunkirk 3.2NNE 0.3 800 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Chesapeake Beach 4 S 0.2 800 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Carroll County... Manchester 1 SSW 3.5 600 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Millers 2.3 416 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Mount Airy SE 2.0 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Westminster 3 SSW 2.0 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Gamber 1 W 1.6 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Westminster 1 W 1.3 600 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Watersville 1 N 1.3 423 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Eldersburg 1 SE 1.0 506 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Eldersburg 1 E 1.0 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Marston 2 N 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Charles County... Waldorf 3 S 1.8 800 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Charlotte Hall 2 NW 1.3 600 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Bryantown 2 NNE 1.1 700 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Bryantown 2 NE 1.1 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS La Plata 3 ENE 0.8 643 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Waldorf 8 ESE 0.8 730 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Indian Head T 659 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Green Valley 1 WNW 0.8 530 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter New Market 2 NW 0.1 800 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Garrett County... Oakland 4.0 412 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Accident 3 NNE 3.5 412 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Grantsville 5 W 3.0 412 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Accident 4 E 2.5 800 AM 12/11 Public Mountain Lake Park 1 2.0 452 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Grantsville 4 E 2.0 450 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Barton 1.0 914 AM 12/11 Public ...Harford County... Fallston 3 N 0.9 730 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Norrisville 1 WSW 0.7 650 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Churchville 1 N 0.1 506 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Howard County... Glenwood 1 SSW 1.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Sykesville 2 SSE 1.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Sykesville 3 SE 1.3 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Elkridge 2 W 0.7 550 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Historic Ellicott Ci 0.7 730 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Columbia 3 SSE 0.6 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Simpsonville 1 SSE 0.6 421 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Laurel 1 NNE 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Columbia 2 N 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS North Laurel 2 ESE 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Clarksville 2 N 0.4 545 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Historic Ellicott Ci 0.3 745 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Montgomery County... Damascus 3 SSW 2.5 413 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer Montgomery Village 1 1.8 630 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Montgomery Village 3 1.8 359 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Damascus 1 S 1.8 521 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Germantown 5 NNE 1.7 600 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Laytonsville 5 NNW 1.6 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Damascus 1 SE 1.6 700 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter North Potomac 4 N 1.6 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Germantown 1.5 400 AM 12/11 Public Gaithersburg 1.5 415 AM 12/11 NWS Employee Gaithersburg 3 NE 1.4 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Gaithersburg 1 SW 1.3 511 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Potomac 1 NNW 1.1 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Aspen Hill 1 SW 1.0 730 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Colesville 2 W 1.0 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Silver Spring 6 NNE 0.8 450 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Olney 1 ENE 0.8 542 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Norbeck 1 ESE 0.8 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Takoma Park 1 NNW 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Rossmoor 1 ESE 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Colesville 1 SE 0.1 620 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Prince Georges County... Beltsville 1 SW 0.5 800 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer Bowie 4 S 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Fort Washington 1 SS 0.2 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...St. Marys County... Charlotte Hall 4 ENE 1.0 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Mechanicsville 5 NE 1.0 700 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer Leonardtown 1 NE 1.0 600 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Ridge 1 N 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Great Mills 4 S 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Washington County... Sabillasville 2 NNW 3.5 629 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Pecktonville 3 NNW 0.5 330 AM 12/11 NWS Employee Boonsboro 3 NNE 0.4 600 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Hagerstown 1 ENE 0.2 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Hagerstown 4 NNW 0.2 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Williamsport 3 ENE 0.1 600 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS VIRGINIA ...Arlington County... Barcroft 1 WNW 0.3 640 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Falls Church 1 E 0.2 430 AM 12/11 NWS Employee Reagan National Apt 0.1 700 AM 12/11 Official NWS Obs ...Augusta County... Fort Defiance 4 SE 2.3 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...City of Alexandria... Alexandria 1 W 0.1 530 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Alexandria 1 ENE T 800 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...City of Fairfax... Fairfax 1 N 0.9 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...City of Staunton... Staunton Water Plant 2.7 800 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer Staunton 1 WSW 1.1 630 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Staunton 1 WNW 1.0 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Clarke County... Berryville 1 NNW 0.5 800 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Culpeper County... Culpeper 1 W 0.2 700 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Fairfax County... Mount Vernon NW 1.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Vienna 3 N 1.4 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Burke 1 S 1.4 902 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Chantilly 2 ENE 1.3 442 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Herndon 3 S 1.2 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Vienna 1 WNW 1.2 425 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Oakton E 1.0 800 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Fairfax 3 W 1.0 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Vienna 1.0 700 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer Herndon 2 ENE 0.9 506 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Herndon 1 NNE 0.9 700 AM 12/11 NWS Employee Falls Church 2 W 0.7 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Springfield 2 SW 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Falls Church 1 NNW 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Reston 1 SSW 0.2 647 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Alexandria 6 SSW 0.2 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Franconia 1 SSE 0.2 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Fauquier County... Broad Run 3 SSW 0.4 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Highland County... Monterey 1 SW 2.1 600 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Mill Gap 1 SW 0.6 600 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer ...Loudoun County... Bloomery 3 ESE 1.5 530 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Round Hill 3 WSW 1.0 525 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Arcola 3 S 1.0 422 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Dulles International 0.5 700 AM 12/11 Official NWS Obs Ashburn N 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Dulles International 0.5 414 AM 12/11 NWS Office Arcola 1 WNW 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Ashburn 1 SSW 0.4 820 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Ashburn 1 W 0.3 800 AM 12/11 NWS Employee ...Nelson County... Wintergreen 4 WNW 6.5 900 AM 12/11 Broadcast Media ...Page County... Panorama 2 WSW 2.0 745 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Honeyville 1 ESE 0.5 523 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Prince William County... Manassas 5 SE 1.2 600 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Independent Hill 3 N 1.2 433 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Manassas 6 SE 1.0 530 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Dale City 1 W 1.0 700 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Manassas 3 NNW 0.4 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Rockingham County... Massanutten 1 WSW 2.2 800 AM 12/11 Public Harrisonburg 9 NE 1.1 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Massanutten 1 SE 1.0 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Shenandoah County... Basye 1 NNE 2.0 830 AM 12/11 Public ...Spotsylvania County... Fredericksburg 5 SSW 1.0 600 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Spotsylvania 9 NW 0.3 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Stafford County... Glendie 1 N 1.3 505 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Ramoth 1 W 1.0 737 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Holly Corner 2 E 0.8 532 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Fredericksburg 8 ESE 0.5 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Warren County... Buckton 2 E 0.3 330 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter WEST VIRGINIA ...Berkeley County... Falling Waters 2 NW 0.1 700 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS ...Grant County... Bayard 2.0 700 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer ...Hampshire County... Lehew 2 WNW 5.0 345 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Jefferson County... Harpers Ferry 13 SSW 0.9 718 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Millville 1 ESE 0.2 512 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Pendleton County... Franklin 1 W 1.0 830 AM 12/11 County Emergy Mgmt Fort Seybert 3 NE 0.3 600 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS

Unfortunate EPS look on 00z, but we knew it would be probably until end of the month at the earliest for a pattern change

000 NOUS41 KLWX 111213 PNSLWX DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>508-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050>057-501>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-120013- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 713 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 The following are preliminary observations taken during the past 5 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to cooperative and CoCoRaHS observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/lwx. ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL MEASURED (inches) MARYLAND ...Allegany County... Potomac Park 2 NW 0.8 416 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways ...Anne Arundel County... Bwi Airport T 700 AM 12/11 Official NWS Obs ...Baltimore County... Glyndon 1 WSW 1.5 415 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Long Green 2 NW 1.0 500 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Bentley Springs 1 E 1.0 545 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Baltimore City... Pikesville 3 SE 0.3 608 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Carroll County... Manchester 1 SSW 3.5 600 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Millers 2.3 416 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Watersville 1 N 1.3 423 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Eldersburg 1 SE 1.0 506 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Charles County... Indian Head T 659 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Green Valley 1 WNW 0.8 530 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Garrett County... Oakland 4.0 412 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Accident 3 NNE 3.5 412 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Grantsville 5 W 3.0 412 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Mountain Lake Park 1 2.0 452 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways Grantsville 4 E 2.0 450 AM 12/11 Dept of Highways ...Harford County... Churchville 1 N 0.1 506 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Howard County... Sykesville 2 SSE 1.5 600 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Elkridge 2 W 0.7 550 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Simpsonville 1 SSE 0.6 421 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Clarksville 2 N 0.4 545 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Montgomery County... Damascus 3 SSW 2.5 413 AM 12/11 Co-Op Observer Damascus 1 S 1.8 521 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Montgomery Village 3 1.8 359 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Germantown 1.5 400 AM 12/11 Public Gaithersburg 1.5 415 AM 12/11 NWS Employee ...St. Marys County... Oakley 4 SW 3.5 600 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Washington County... Sabillasville 2 NNW 3.5 629 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS Pecktonville 3 NNW 0.5 330 AM 12/11 NWS Employee VIRGINIA ...Arlington County... Falls Church 1 E 0.2 430 AM 12/11 NWS Employee Reagan National Apt 0.1 700 AM 12/11 Official NWS Obs ...Culpeper County... Culpeper 1 W 0.2 700 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Fairfax County... Chantilly 2 ENE 1.3 442 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Vienna 1 WNW 1.2 425 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Herndon 2 ENE 0.9 506 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Herndon 1 NNE 0.4 250 AM 12/11 NWS Employee ...Loudoun County... Bloomery 3 ESE 1.5 530 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Arcola 3 S 1.0 422 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Dulles International 0.5 414 AM 12/11 NWS Office Dulles International 0.5 700 AM 12/11 Official NWS Obs ...Page County... Honeyville 1 ESE 0.5 523 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Stafford County... Glendie 1 N 1.3 505 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter Holly Corner 2 E 0.8 532 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter WEST VIRGINIA ...Hampshire County... Lehew 2 WNW 5.0 345 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter ...Jefferson County... Millville 1 ESE 0.2 512 AM 12/11 Trained Spotter

huzzah... i guess Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 711 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0700 AM Snow 1 WSW Reagan National A 38.85N 77.04W 12/11/2023 M0.1 inch Arlington VA Official NWS Obs && Event Number LWX2302842

Did someone make a mistake in St. Mary's county? NWUS51 KLWX 111138 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 638 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0600 AM Snow 4 SW Oakley 38.23N 76.78W 12/11/2023 M3.5 inch St. Marys MD Trained Spotter && Event Number LWX2302827

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ050-051-053>057- 502-527-111200- District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Southern Fauquier- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Aberdeen, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Turnbull, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 310 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023 ...WET SNOW ACCUMULATING EARLY THIS MORNING... Rain has changed over to snow along and west of Interstate 95 early this morning, and will transition to all snow east of Interstate 95 in the next 1 to 2 hours. Precipitation is expected to end from west to east between 4 AM and 7 AM. A slushy coating of snow is expected on grassy and elevated surfaces, with localized amounts around one inch possible. Even though road temperatures are above freezing, the moderate snow rates are leading to some accumulation on area roadways. Drivers should be alert for changing road conditions where it is snowing. Slow down and allow for extra travel time this morning. $$ Rodriguez

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Nashville TN 409 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Davidson County in Middle Tennessee... East central Dickson County in Middle Tennessee... Central Cheatham County in Middle Tennessee... South central Robertson County in Middle Tennessee... * Until 445 PM CST. * At 409 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near White Bluff, or 8 miles southwest of Ashland City, moving east at 40 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Ashland City around 415 PM CST. Joelton around 430 PM CST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Beaman Park, Whites Creek, and Bells Bend. This includes the following highways... Interstate 40 between mile markers 201 and 211. Interstate 65 between mile markers 85 and 97. Interstate 24 between mile markers 30 and 49. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3638 8673 3634 8672 3633 8670 3632 8670 3632 8668 3617 8662 3608 8724 3621 8727 3644 8678 TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 249DEG 35KT 3619 8716 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

18z NAM still looks nice to me

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Paducah KY 159 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Todd County in south central Kentucky... * Until 230 PM CST. * At 159 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 4 miles west of Guthrie, or 8 miles northeast of Clarksville, moving northeast at 40 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Guthrie around 205 PM CST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3675 8706 3664 8706 3664 8731 3670 8732 3682 8706 3677 8705 TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 245DEG 36KT 3666 8725 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 158 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 KYC219-092015- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-231209T2015Z/ Todd KY- 158 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN TODD COUNTY... At 158 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located just west of Guthrie, or 8 miles northeast of Clarksville, moving northeast at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Guthrie around 205 PM CST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3665 8710 3664 8710 3664 8734 3669 8733 3682 8706 TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 247DEG 39KT 3665 8725 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

18z HRRR would suggest around 5 hours of snow in DC metro

Looks like DC metro changes over to snow around 07z MON on 18z HRRR

Excellent afternoon AFD from LWX about all the hazards (225pm issuance) .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A potent upper-level trough with northern and southern stream energy will continue to push east from the Great Lakes and Tennessee River Valley Sunday. At the surface, a strong cold front will slowly approach from the west Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon before working east of the area early Monday morning. 12z guidance continues to illustrate a fairly progressive system with limited phasing between the northern and southern stream. Even with that said, a strong meridional component remains to the upper level trough axis with ample warm/moist advection ahead of the cold frontal boundary. 12z upper level guidance from the CAMS and global solutions even show a negative tilt to the trough as the low level jet strengthen overhead. The strong thermal gradient combined with ample moisture advection will lead to widespread heavy rain and gusty winds across the region. Thunderstorms are also a possibility as the region resides in the warm sector with some elevated instability (i.e MLCAPE values less than 150 j/kg) Sunday morning into Sunday evening. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will also accompany the frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening given the latest 12z CAM guidance. Given the strong winds aloft (0-6km shear 60-80kts), this has the potential to mix down leading to a locally damaging wind threat. One mitigating factor for the thunderstorm threat will be the lack of instability that is progged to be rooted within the boundary layer. Therefore, certainty for damaging wind gusts is low at this time (with the best chance for strong to damaging wind gusts across south-central MD and the central VA Piedmont). Any thunderstorm activity that we do see will enhance the heavy rainfall threat across the region given the anomalously high PWATS and given dynamic. Rainfall amounts will range between 1-2 inches west of I-81 with 2-3 inches further east. Much of this rain may fall within a 3 to 6 hour period Sunday afternoon into late Sunday evening. This will lead to instances of urban flooding where relatively low FFG guidance overlaps. For that reason, a Flood Watch has been hoisted for the Baltimore/Washington DC metros as well as portions of northern VA. Now for winter - this is a complex anafrontal system with multiple waves of low pressure progged to move along the front. The colder air will first move into the Allegheny front Sunday evening, and spread southeast through the area overnight Sunday. Given the anafrontal nature of the cold front, moderate precipitation is likely to persist behind the front before cooler & drier air works into the region. Guidance continues to bring in more cold air which does result in more snow across the region. The best chance for accumulating snow is in areas of higher terrain (generally above 1750`). Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the Allegheny Front given the strong signal for advisory level snow on the backside of the system coupled with the potential for snow squalls and showers lingering into Monday morning. Model soundings have a favorable overlap in moisture and lift through the DGZ through mid-morning Monday. Now the second area of winter headline is the northern Virginia Blue Ridge zone. Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for this area given the overwhelming signal for several inches of snow. There is uncertainty with respect to how quickly the dry air moves in and snow ends, but given some of the more robust scenarios, felt a watch was prudent for this area. There is a non-zero chance for accumulating snow further east, even near the DC and Baltimore metros. If the precipitation rates on the cold side of the boundary can be heavy enough well into the overnight this would take place. However, the most likely scenario is for the boundary layer to remain above freezing while precipitation rates decrease as low-level drier air moves in toward morning. Will continue to monitor. The cold front will move off to the east Monday and a northwest flow will usher chilly conditions. There will be a snow showers to start along/west of the Allegheny Front (flurries may spill east) before drier air works its way into the area during the afternoon. The main story for Monday will be the blustery and gusty northwest winds due to low pressure rapidly intensifying to our northeast (system phases during this time). Frequent gusts around 30 to 45 mph are possible for most areas. Even stronger winds are possible over the ridges and an a Wind Advisory may be warranted. High pressure will build toward the area Monday night. Winds will gradually diminish, but it will be cold with lows in the 20s for most areas (teens in the mountains and portions of the Shenandoah Valley).

Um, I know it's the BR... but I wasn't expecting a WSWatch... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 VAZ507-100300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.231211T0000Z-231211T1200Z/ Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 5 inches are possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow Sunday evening and continue through the overnight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ BELAK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 MDZ001-WVZ501-505-100300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0024.231211T0000Z-231211T1500Z/ Garrett-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts upwards of 5 inches on the higher ridges. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow Sunday evening with temperatures rapidly falling below freezing. Snow showers will continue overnight into Monday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 1148 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 TNC053-079-131-183-091830- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0076.000000T0000Z-231209T1830Z/ Weakley TN-Gibson TN-Obion TN-Henry TN- 1148 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST FOR WEAKLEY...NORTHEASTERN GIBSON...SOUTHEASTERN OBION AND WESTERN HENRY COUNTIES... At 1148 AM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Sharon, or 8 miles south of Martin, moving northeast at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Martin, Paris, McKenzie, Dresden, Dyer, Greenfield, Gleason, Kenton, Rutherford, Bradford, Sharon, Cottage Grove, Routon, Palmersville, Puryear, Henry, Sandhill, Jones Mill, Good Luck, and Crossland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3626 8816 3602 8898 3624 8908 3650 8844 3650 8838 TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 245DEG 45KT 3621 8884 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN