yoda

FWIW, 12z NAM Nest is going to go just west of DC at the end of its run looks like with the SLP track

Both 12z NAM runs are very wet across the region... 2 to 4 inches with some isolated 5" on the NAM

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 A broad non-tropical area of low pressure has formed well east of the east coast of Florida this morning. Although this system is forecast to remain non-tropical during the next 12-24 hours, the dynamical model guidance indicates that it will likely acquire tropical characteristics late Friday and early Saturday as it approaches the coast of North Carolina. Although it is unclear as to whether the cyclone detaches from a front that is forecast to extend northeastward from the center, the guidance suggests a tropical-cyclone like core and structure when it nears the coast. As a result, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen to issue Tropical Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Watches for portions of the coasts of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland. Winds associated with the front farther north are being covered by non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices and the Ocean Prediction Center. Additional tropical watches and warnings could be issued for other portions of the Chesapeake Bay later today. Since the low is still in its formative stage, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 360/8 kt. The model guidance suggests that center reformations are likely to occur during the next day or so, but the overall motion of the system is expected to be a little east of due north. As the system interacts with a mid-latitude trough that it becomes embedded within, a bend toward the north-northwest is forecast. That motion should bring the center over eastern North Carolina within the warning area Saturday morning. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the various global models that are in good agreement. The system is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next 24 hours. After that time, the guidance suggests it is likely to form a smaller inner core with additional strengthening expected until the center reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast follows the ECMWF and GFS models trends. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the southeastern U.S. coast later today and will bring tropical-storm-force winds, storm surge, heavy rain, and high surf to large portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic United States coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend. 2. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge inundation from Surf City, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday. 4. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 28.7N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 22/0000Z 30.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 75.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 23/0000Z 33.2N 75.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 23/1200Z 35.1N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 24/0000Z 37.3N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 24/1200Z 38.8N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/1200Z 40.4N 71.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Warnings go up to the LWX/AKQ border on the waters

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 75.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape Fear, North Carolina, northward to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Surf City, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, and the for the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

50kt tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours per NHC

Going to have to do some checking... and I know it's very unlikely, but when was the last time LWX issued tropical products aka HLS?

Lol UKIE... what a huge shift west 00z CMC and UKIE crush i95 corridor

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 67.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

Watches could be coming later today per NHC 8am update Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 800 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW... ...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 67.2W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. Watches may be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 800 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW... ...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 67.2W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. Watches may be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1206 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CITY OF BALTIMORE ... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... * Until 315 AM EDT. * At 1206 AM EDT, Emergency Management reported numerous water rescues are ongoing in the City of Baltimore. Between 2.5 and 4.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for City of Baltimore . This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management reported. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Baltimore... This includes the following Flood Prone Roads... Smith Avenue at Jones Falls and Clipper Mill Road near the Falls Road Overpass. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. && LAT...LON 3924 7662 3928 7671 3937 7671 3937 7653 3927 7653 3926 7654 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023 GOES-16 satellite and radar images from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicate that Lee is trying to consolidate into one large eyewall, but the eye remains obscured with fragments of the old eyewall structures. Peak 700-mb flight-level winds were about 110 kt, 0.5 km radar estimates were near 121 kt and surface SFMR estimates were about 90 kt, which could be under sampled with such a large radius of maximum winds. The initial wind speed is held at 100 kt as a compromise of the aircraft estimates. Lee is still moving slowly west-northwestward (300/5 kt), with mid-level ridging established to the north and east of the hurricane. This steering pattern is expected to change during the next couple of days as a deep-layer trough moves across the eastern United States and produces a weakness in this ridge. As a result, Lee is forecast to turn northward and gradually accelerate during the middle and latter parts of this week. The track guidance envelope shows little cross-track spread during the first 3 days of the forecast period, and this portion of the NHC forecast is fairly similar to the previous one. While the core of the hurricane is forecast to pass west of Bermuda, the large wind field of the storm is likely to bring wind impacts to the island on Thursday, prompting the Bermuda Weather Service to issue a Tropical Storm Watch. The latest NHC track was a compromise between the 6z GEFS and ECMWF ensembles in the days 4/5 time frame, as it is still too early to know if any leftward bend will occur as Lee approaches North America. No significant change in strength is expected in the near-term with Lee due to its current structure and large wind field. Going forward, the large hurricane appears likely to begin upwelling cooler waters along its path, and in a few days it will encounter the cool wake left behind by recent western Atlantic hurricanes. Thus, gradual weakening is forecast through midweek. Later, the aforementioned trough is expected to produce stronger deep-layer shear over Lee, and the hurricane is forecast to move over significantly cooler waters as it passes north of the Gulf Stream. As a result, more significant weakening is shown at days 4-5, along with completion of its extratropical transition. Despite the forecast weakening, it is important to note that the expanding wind field of Lee will produce impacts well away from the storm center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week. 2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to Bermuda later this week, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee might have along the northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late this week and this weekend. However, since wind and rainfall hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size, users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 24.3N 65.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 24.8N 66.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 25.9N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 27.4N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 29.4N 68.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 31.6N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 34.3N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 40.7N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 45.3N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake/Gallina

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... ...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 65.9W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023 Lee has been holding steady in strength this morning. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Lee and found that the minimum pressure was around 948 mb while a combination of the measured flight-level and SFMR winds support holding the initial intensity at 105 kt. The aircraft data have also shown a clear indication of concentric eyewalls, which will likely cause fluctuations, both up and down, in Lee's intensity over the next day or two. The major hurricane is moving slowly toward the northwest at about 7 kt. A continued slow motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected during the next couple of days as Lee continues to be steered by a mid-level high to its north-northeast. Around the middle of the week, the ridge is expected to shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. This pattern change should cause Lee to turn northward with an increase in forward speed. The models have generally changed little this cycle, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. Lee is likely to pass near, but to the west of Bermuda, late Thursday and Friday and be situated offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and New England by the end of the forecast period. As mentioned above, fluctuations in strength are likely in the short term due to eyewall replacement cycles, but there is an opportunity for some strengthening during that time since the system is expected to remain over very warm waters and in relatively low wind shear conditions. Beyond a couple of days, however, progressively cooler waters and a notable increase in shear should cause Lee to gradually weaken. Although the weakening is forecast later in the week, Lee is expected to significantly increase in size and hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week. 2. Lee could bring strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to Bermuda later this week. Interests there should monitor the latest forecasts. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee might have along the Northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late this week and this weekend, however, wind and rainfall hazards will likely extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 23.5N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 23.9N 64.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 24.4N 65.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.9N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 28.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 33.1N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 38.9N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT LEE REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 63.5W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Lee.

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 While the geostationary satellite appearance of Lee has not changed appreciably since the prior advisory, data from a NOAA P-3 reconnaissance mission in the storm, in addition to earlier GPM and SSMIS microwave imagery, indicate that Lee is in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The aircraft has been reporting both an inner and outer eyewall, with the outer eyewall gradually contracting in size. However, this outer eyewall continues to exhibit some asymmetry, consistent with modest vertical wind shear still affecting the storm. In addition, the aircraft has reported that the inner-core wind field is becoming weaker, but broader, with a more muted wind profile outside of the radius of maximum wind. This observation is also evident comparing TDR data between the morning and evening NOAA-P3 missions. The peak 700 mb flight level winds were down to 94 kt, with SFMR only in the 75-85 kt range. The initial intensity has been adjusted to a somewhat generous 90 kt for this advisory. Lee continues to move west-northwestward this evening at 300/9 kt. As discussed previously, the mid-level ridge axis currently north of Lee is soon expected to shift to its west-southwest, resulting in Lee slowing its forward motion, and perhaps making a slight westward bend over the next 24-36 hours. Afterwards, an eastward-moving mid-latitude trough is expected to erode this ridge and allow Lee to turn northward by the end of the forecast period. There remains a significant amount of spread in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance on when this turn occurs, and then how quickly Lee accelerates northward. For now the NHC track forecast remains closest to the consensus aids, which have slowed a bit from the prior cycle, and the latest track forecast is a bit slower but near the same trajectory as the prior advisory. While vertical wind shear over Lee appears to be gradual decreasing over the system, the ongoing ERC seems to be resulting in the wind field broadening versus allowing Lee to re-intensify so far. However, once this cycle is complete, reintensification is still anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast still takes Lee back to a category 4 hurricane in 36-48 hours, in good agreement with the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts, which both explicitly show the ongoing ERC. However, Lee's growing wind field, in combination with its slowing forward motion, could make the hurricane susceptible to feeling the effects of its own cold wake, which the atmospheric-ocean coupled HAFS and HWRF models suggest could begin to occur beyond 36 hours. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening beginning by that time, with more pronounced weakening by the end of the forecast period as the hurricane traverses already cooled sea-surface temperatures from Franklin and Idalia last week along its forecast track. This intensity forecast is in good agreement with the simple consensus aids, but is a little lower than the HFIP corrected consensus early on. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions are spreading westward and northward and will affect Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next several days. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning tomorrow and continuing into next week as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 21.0N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.6N 60.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 23.0N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 23.3N 64.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 23.6N 65.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 24.0N 66.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 25.6N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 28.8N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Cat 2 at 11pm... 105 mph BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 ...LEE EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 59.9W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

LWX issuing rapid fire STWs the past 10 minutes