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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 Lee seems to be recovering from the effects of the strong southwesterly shear. The central dense overcast has expanded, with periodic bursts of deep convection and increased lightning activity near the center. The most recent geostationary satellite infrared images even seem to be hinting a return of Lee's eye. Overnight, there were multiple reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft of mesovorticies orbiting the closed, elliptical eyewall. Due to safety considerations, the aircraft were unable, at times, to penetrate the eyewall and thus, we have no new in-situ information about the intensity or minimum central pressure. The initial intensity is held at a somewhat uncertain 100 kt and NOAA and Air Force Reserve missions are scheduled to investigate Lee later this morning. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low. Global models suggest that Lee could be affected by strong-to-moderate southwesterly shear for at least the next day, though the European global model shows strong upper-level winds near the hurricane for the entire forecast period. The statistical and consensus intensity aids predict Lee could briefly weaken in the short-term, before restrengthening in about 12-24 hours. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which generally lies between the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids. Regardless of the details, it is likely that Lee will continue to be a dangerous hurricane through the entire forecast period. Lee is moving west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The hurricane is situated to the south of a mid-level ridge that is predicted to build westward and southwestward during the next few days. This steering pattern is expected to keep Lee on a west-northwestward trajectory with a slower forward speed. By next Wednesday, the hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest and north-northwest in the flow between a trough over the eastern United States and the southwestern edge of the ridge. While the model guidance is in good agreement about the general synoptic setup, there remain differences in how far west Lee will move before it makes the turn. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous predictions and lies just to the south of the various track consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 19.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.4N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 22.8N 63.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.2N 64.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 23.9N 66.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 25.7N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Tons of reports of trees down in Albemarle County east of CHO

Another outflow boundary being thrown up near Culpeper from the storms down by CHO

Woah BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 639 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 637 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dulles International Airport, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Numerous reports of significant wind driven hail, of at least ping pong ball size, is ongoing with storms across eastern Loudoun and Northeast Prince William Counties. Hail up to two inches is possible. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Chantilly, Great Falls, Countryside, Haymarket, Arcola, Gainesville, Belmont, Catharpin, Woolsey, and Sterling Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3907 7742 3906 7734 3905 7730 3879 7758 3881 7769 3888 7769 3899 7759 3908 7746 TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 226DEG 7KT 3897 7749 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 624 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0615 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Arcola 38.97N 77.53W 09/08/2023 M71 mph Loudoun VA Mesonet Wind gusts of up to 62 knots (71 MPH) were measured by a Tempest station (23370) between Arcola and Brambleton. && Corrected event...remarks Event Number LWX2302455

Wow, 15 minutes of hail up to half dollar size at the LWX FO that covered the ground Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 622 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0600 PM Hail 3 NW Dulles Internation 38.98N 77.49W 09/08/2023 M1.25 inch Loudoun VA NWS Office Hail of up to half dollar size was observed for about 15 minutes from 6:00 to 6:15 PM at the NWS Office in Sterling. Hail covered the ground. && Event Number LWX2302457

Make that outflow boundary do something lol

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 609 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 VAC059-107-153-082245- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0333.000000T0000Z-230908T2245Z/ Loudoun VA-Fairfax VA-Prince William VA- 609 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN FAIRFAX AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES... At 608 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Brambleton, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Numerous reports of wind driven hail have been reported across southern and eastern Loudoun County, mainly up to half dollar size hail. Hail up to golf ball size is possible. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Chantilly, Countryside, Arcola, Belmont, and Sterling Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3905 7736 3899 7738 3892 7742 3887 7750 3887 7757 3888 7767 3890 7767 3894 7765 3903 7761 3908 7752 3906 7742 TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 205DEG 7KT 3898 7750 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Huh... Euro seems to be insinuating that Lee and Margot will be dancing at 216 Lee is already moving NE on its recurve but Margot is matching by moving NW towards Lee

Margot and Lee just a tad closer at 192 compared to last nights 216

Looking at the 00z EURO, I am beginning to wonder if Margot is closer to Lee, will that have any effect on the h5 level? If you compare last nights 00z run at 168 to tonights at 144... Margot is much closer to Lee and the h5 becomes different up top

Just to do the quick math... 170 to 180 kts is 195 to 205 mph

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has skyrocketed to category 5 strength. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum pressure has plummeted to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane has a clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C. Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement. In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in 12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air. The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next 5 days. For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively blocking Lee's progress. The NHC track forecast remains of high confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were required from the previous forecast. Although there are some indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model scenarios that far out into the future. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further strengthening is forecast overnight. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Margot is also here

Guess we wait until tomorrow... another SLGT risk day as well

Pretty cool looking outflow boundary on Radarscope

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 339 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 339 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Haymarket, or 7 miles southwest of South Riding, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Leesburg, South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Countryside, Haymarket, Arcola, Oatlands, Gainesville, Belmont, Catharpin, and Gleedsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3905 7735 3877 7756 3881 7772 3911 7766 TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 194DEG 21KT 3887 7763 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Quarter size hail observed at the LWX FO

Numerous reports of trees down

@EastCoast NPZ looks like you got hit nicely

That cell west of MRB... woof Radarscope max hail size 3"

Watch up until 9pm

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 VAC069-WVC003-065-071730- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-230907T1730Z/ Frederick VA-Morgan WV-Berkeley WV- 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MORGAN AND NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... At 108 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Greenwood, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Martinsburg, Greenwood, Berkeley, Hedgesville, Johnsons Mill, Cherry Run, Tomahawk, Glengary, Johnsontown, Omps, Shanghai, Spohrs Crossroads, Oakland, Spruce Pine Hollow, Stotlers Crossroads, Highland Ridge, Jones Springs, Valley High, Unger, and New Hope. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3968 7810 3963 7803 3960 7801 3960 7799 3952 7788 3935 7822 3946 7833 TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 227DEG 22KT 3950 7819 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$

That was a pretty impressive hail core a few scans ago in E WV

RTPLWX Max/Min Temperature and Precipitation Table for the Mid-Atlantic National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 811 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Values represent highs and lows since 1 AM LST (06 UTC), and precipitation over the last 24 hours (since 7 PM LST yesterday). .BR LWX 0906 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ : : Max Min :ID Location Temp Temp Pcpn : : First-order and climate sites BWI : Balt-Wash Marshall : 100 / 73 / 0.00 CHO : Charlottesville AP : 99 / 71 / 0.00 DCA : Reagan National AP : 98 / 75 / 0.00 DMH : Baltimore Inner Hrb.: 99 / 81 / 0.00 HGR : Hagerstown Rgnl AP : 96 / 69 / 0.00 IAD : Dulles Intl Airport : 100 / 69 / 0.00 MRB : Eastern WV Rgnl AP : 95 / 63 / 0.00 NAK : Annapolis Naval Acad: 90 / 75 / 0.00 :