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000 WTNT45 KNHC 270244 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Images from the Mexico meteorological service's radar in Cancun show that the depression has a small but well-defined circulation with spiral banding extending no more than about 60 n mi from the center. This feature is embedded within a larger circulation with scattered deep convection covering the northwestern Caribbean Sea, extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS. The depression appears to be drifting toward the southwest with an initial motion of 230/2 kt, with low- to mid-level ridging located to its north and northwest. The system is expected to continue meandering over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36 hours. After that time, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging over the western Atlantic is expected to begin lifting the system toward the north and north-northeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, and then near the southeastern coast of the U.S. The updated NHC track forecast lies on top of or very near the previous prediction and closely follows the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids. Assuming the depression's center does not move over the Yucatan Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear should support gradual strengthening during the next few days. The NHC intensity prediction is a little below the consensus aids during the first 36 hours of the forecast but then converges with those aids thereafter, showing the system reaching hurricane strength by 60 hours. The system is expected to remain a hurricane, and potentially continue strengthening, up until it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Users are reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida. Land interaction and increasing shear should lead to fast weakening after the system moves over land, but it could still produce tropical-storm-force winds near and offshore the southeastern coast of the U.S. even if the center is inland. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 86.4W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.4 West. The depression is drifting toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Commanders finish 3-0 in the preseason with their win tonight. Hopefully that will turn into a good regular season

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/08/felix-bautista-placed-on-injured-list-with-some-degree-of-ucl-injury.html

Euro keeps 93L around in the same general area from Day 6 on... then slowly moves S/SSW by Day 9 into 10 Makes landfall in the Big Bend of FL around 108 with low to mid 990s SLP

18z GFS still gets some of 93L moisture into the region but it disappates

Loudoun cell looks interesting, looks like an outflow boundary attached to it Just got warned

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 657 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Indiana Northern and Central Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 950 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over southern Lower Michigan will track southeastward across the watch area tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern, with a risk of significant wind damage at times. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Fort Wayne IN to 25 miles north of Franklin PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 655...WW 656... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Hart

but now its back to a regular warning Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 945 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 MIC093-250215- /O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230825T0215Z/ Livingston MI- 945 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY... At 945 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Fowlerville, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Howell and Oak Grove around 955 PM EDT. Brighton around 1010 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Parkers Corners.

Confirmed large and dangerous tornado per radar

They already did

Now this is pretty cool

12z NAM and NAM NEST didn't look too bad for tonight

So anything interesting for tonight or nah?

This was 12 years ago? Dang... time flies

There is a MRGL risk on Friday from SPC

Emily done... Gert will be done by this evening

Well we have a 36 hour TD... so yay?

Time sensitive

WTPZ44 KNHC 182046 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Hilary remains a large and powerful major hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the northern portion of Hilary and found a higher minimum pressure than expected of 948 mb, 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt, and peak SFMR surface winds of 93 kt. However, the aircraft did not sample the southern half of the circulation, which currently has some of the deepest convection. Blending the available aircraft data and latest satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 115 kt. Hilary continues to slowly bend to the right, and the initial motion is northwestward or 315/10 kt. A general north-northwest to north motion with a steady increase in forward speed is expected tonight and through the weekend as the system is steered by pronounced steering flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. The models have trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has followed suit. Based on the latest forecast, the core of Hilary is expected to be very near the central portion of Baja California Saturday night and move inland over southern California by Sunday night. It should be noted that strong winds and heavy rains will occur well ahead of the center. Fluctuations in the hurricane's strength are expected through tonight, but Hilary is expected to begin weakening on Saturday as it moves over progressively cooler SSTs and into an environment of increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, partially due to the lower initial intensity, and a little higher than the HCCA and IVCN models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary will begin well in advance of the center, from the Baja California Peninsula into the Southwestern United States. Preparations for the impacts of flooding from rainfall should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rain will increase ahead of the center on Saturday. In the Southwestern United States, flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is expected, with the potential for dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula Saturday night and are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible by late Sunday in portions of southern California where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and south California over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 112.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi