yoda

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 339 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 339 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Haymarket, or 7 miles southwest of South Riding, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Leesburg, South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Countryside, Haymarket, Arcola, Oatlands, Gainesville, Belmont, Catharpin, and Gleedsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3905 7735 3877 7756 3881 7772 3911 7766 TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 194DEG 21KT 3887 7763 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Quarter size hail observed at the LWX FO

Numerous reports of trees down

@EastCoast NPZ looks like you got hit nicely

That cell west of MRB... woof Radarscope max hail size 3"

Watch up until 9pm

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 VAC069-WVC003-065-071730- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-230907T1730Z/ Frederick VA-Morgan WV-Berkeley WV- 108 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MORGAN AND NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... At 108 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Greenwood, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Martinsburg, Greenwood, Berkeley, Hedgesville, Johnsons Mill, Cherry Run, Tomahawk, Glengary, Johnsontown, Omps, Shanghai, Spohrs Crossroads, Oakland, Spruce Pine Hollow, Stotlers Crossroads, Highland Ridge, Jones Springs, Valley High, Unger, and New Hope. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3968 7810 3963 7803 3960 7801 3960 7799 3952 7788 3935 7822 3946 7833 TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 227DEG 22KT 3950 7819 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$

That was a pretty impressive hail core a few scans ago in E WV

RTPLWX Max/Min Temperature and Precipitation Table for the Mid-Atlantic National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 811 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 Values represent highs and lows since 1 AM LST (06 UTC), and precipitation over the last 24 hours (since 7 PM LST yesterday). .BR LWX 0906 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ : : Max Min :ID Location Temp Temp Pcpn : : First-order and climate sites BWI : Balt-Wash Marshall : 100 / 73 / 0.00 CHO : Charlottesville AP : 99 / 71 / 0.00 DCA : Reagan National AP : 98 / 75 / 0.00 DMH : Baltimore Inner Hrb.: 99 / 81 / 0.00 HGR : Hagerstown Rgnl AP : 96 / 69 / 0.00 IAD : Dulles Intl Airport : 100 / 69 / 0.00 MRB : Eastern WV Rgnl AP : 95 / 63 / 0.00 NAK : Annapolis Naval Acad: 90 / 75 / 0.00 :

What is FourCastNet? Never heard of it before until you tweeted it above

Why does the LWX radar show a line of showers but Radarscope shows nothing at 750am?

@MN Transplant morning AFD from LWX mentioned dewpoint mixing I believe in the short term discussion part .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Well above average temperatures continue into this morning. Normal morning lows should be in the upper 50s to low 60s this time of year, depending on your exact location, and many areas are still around 70! More of the same is expected today as we saw on Sunday. High pressure to the south and a strong upper ridge will set the stage for a very hot air mass over the region. Winds out of the WNW could again result in significant warming in downslope flow, especially for areas up next to the ridges. Could see many spots make a run at 100 today, but most will see mid-upper 90s. In fact, some spots may even reach record highs today (see climate section below for more details). Humidity will again be manageable, through it will still feel plenty hot. Dew points in the 60s should keep us out of and advisory criteria, but it will certainly be close, and anyone outdoors today should still remember to keep hydrated and take plenty of breaks in the shade/air conditioning. Going into tonight, temperatures may even be a touch warmer overnight than we saw this morning. Some spots could see record warm overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The hottest days of the week look to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. The pattern remains similar, with the ridge aloft strengthening ever so slightly. Temperatures at 850mb warm a degree or so each day Tuesday and Wednesday when compared to Monday, with values anywhere between 20-24 deg C. This, paired with downsloping winds, should yield afternoon high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Maintaining thoughts on humidity, as the downsloping winds will crash the dew points (perhaps even more than currently forecast). Think we remain below advisory criteria once again on Tuesday, but Wednesday could come very close. Either way, that doesn`t take away the fact that it will be extremely hot during this time period, and you should be taking proper precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Overnight lows remain very warm both nights, with record warmth during the overnight possible once again.

76/67 at 3am

I believe that you have done well with this call

TOASTY!

Moving NW at 240... preparing to recurve at 972mb

989 at 216. 00z was 986 and 12z yesterday was 969

1004mb at 168 passing north of all the islands

Until it weakens at 144

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Heading out of the Labor Day holiday weekend, conditions remain seasonably hot with legitimate opportunities to break daily temperature records. An expansive ridge encompasses the entire eastern U.S. with little downstream movement as an upper low remains parked south of Nova Scotia. This particular upper low will contain the post-tropical remains of Idalia. Looking toward the middle to latter portions of next week, an upstream trough should eventually erode the persistent ridge across the northeastern U.S. This ultimately favors a pattern change and a return of shower and thunderstorm chances. For Tuesday and Wednesday, 850-mb temperatures are forecast to rise into the 22 to 24C range. Given deep mixing, dry adiabatic profiles within this layer would support highs well into the 90s, locally approaching 100 degrees. The 00Z GEFS and 18Z EPS ensemble probabilities show around a 50 percent chance at a triple digit reading somewhere between the Blue Ridge and I-95. Skies should generally remain devoid of clouds given the ridge. One wild card in this pattern is the humidity which will dictate how high heat indices become. For now, modest rises in dew points should hoist heat index values into the 97 to 102 degree range. While this would fall short of local Heat Advisory criteria, those outdoors should take the necessary precautions to mitigate any heat-related illnesses. This would include taking shade breaks, wearing light clothing, and staying hydrated with plenty of water. Of course, do not leave anyone, including pets, inside a locked vehicle.

Do not want - from this afternoons LWX AFD There continues to be some spread in how hot temperatures may get next week, with upper 90s to even triple digits not completely out of the question looking at some of the ensemble guidance (ECMWF/GEFS). For now, the general consensus is a warming trend but staying below hazards (Heat Advisory etc..) for now. We will continue to monitor the trends leading up to next week.

No thanks. I want more of today and tomorrow please

Yay another tropical cyclone that will be gone in 72 hours

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 The satellite presentation of the storm has improved this morning with the center more deeply embedded within the deep convection and colder cloud tops. However, recent reconnaissance aircraft data from both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA indicate that the improved satellite presentation has not yet resulted in an increase in wind speed. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 68 kt, and a minimum pressure around 990 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt this advisory. The Air Force aircraft will be in the storm environment through early afternoon and that data should continue to provide information Idalia's structure and intensity. Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Idalia is moving northward or 360/8 kt. A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles should cause Idalia to move northward at a faster forward speed during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, an even faster north-northeast motion is expected an another mid-level trough moves across the central and eastern portions of the United States. The latest NHC track forecast is again quite similar to the previous forecast. Although the track forecast has been quite consistent, there is still some spread in the guidance by 48 hours, and it cannot be emphasized enough that only a small deviation in the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast of the state. Although there is still some moderate northwesterly over the storm, intensification seems likely during the next 12-18 hours, and Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. By Tuesday, the environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to become more conducive for strengthening. Steady to rapid intensification is predicted beginning Tuesday while Idalia traverses the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and the upper-level environment becomes more favorable. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Idalia to reach major hurricane strength before landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida. This forecast has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings for portions of the west coast of Florida and Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Atlantic coasts of Florida and Georgia. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of Florida. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia. 3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. 4. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far western Cuba later today. Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 22.0N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 23.9N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 26.4N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.2N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 31.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1200Z 34.6N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown