yoda

Oh... well @mappy can delete my thread then lol Oh, never-ending, i can do thar if we are keeping stuff in here

Yeah 12z NAM Nest goes to town across the region

My post was the main NAM, not the NAM Nest. 03z has more severe stuff crossing the DC metro

12z NAM sim radar smokes N VA/DC/MD

Should be an interesting morning AFD update from LWX shortly

9am obs out towards the i81 corridor .SHENANDOAH VALLEY... CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS MARTINSBURG MOSUNNY 74 69 85 SW10G17 29.86S HAGERSTOWN APT MOSUNNY 75 69 81 S9 29.87S STAUNTON* SUNNY 74 70 85 S7 29.94F WINCHESTER* MOSUNNY 73 68 83 SW9 29.87S LURAY* SUNNY 73 68 83 SW6 29.89F NEW MARKET* SUNNY 76 73 91 SW8 29.90S WAYNESBORO* SUNNY 74 69 86 CALM 29.94F ...APPALACHIANS... CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PETERSBURG WV* SUNNY 82 72 69 S8 29.87F CUMBERLAND* MOSUNNY 76 71 87 S3 29.90F OAKLAND* PTSUNNY 68 68 100 SW8G16 29.95F HOT SPRINGS* CLOUDY 70 70 100 SW13 30.06F ELKINS MOSUNNY 73 69 87 CALM 29.92F BEDFORD PA* PTSUNNY 72 72 98 CALM 29.87S JOHNSTOWN PTSUNNY 72 70 94 SW8 29.91R ALTOONA MOSUNNY 73 70 90 S7 29.88S

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 071302 DCZ000-DEZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-PAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-071800- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the eastern U.S. today... * LOCATIONS... Virginia Central and southern West Virginia Maryland Eastern Tennessee Eastern Kentucky Southeast Pennsylvania Western and central North Carolina District of Columbia Western South Carolina Northern Georgia Delaware * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread damaging winds, locally destructive, and isolated tornadoes as the greatest threats from the southern and central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic States. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 08/07/2023

12z HRRR has large squall line or bow echo moving into the region around 20z...

SPC AC 071244 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN KY/NORTHEAST TN/NORTHWEST NC...WESTERN AND NORTHERN VA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WV...CENTRAL MD...AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL PA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible across parts of the eastern U.S. today with widespread damaging winds, locally destructive, and isolated tornadoes as the greatest threats from the southern and central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Southeast to the Upper OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough over the Lower OH Valley will advance across the northern Appalachians by this evening. A pair of 500-mb speed maxima from 55-65 kts are expected to be centered by late afternoon across eastern KY/TN and southern WV into western VA/NC, and separately over the Mid-South. Peak flow within an expansive 700-mb jet should be centered between the 500-mb maxima across the TN Valley. A plume of large potential buoyancy supported by high PW and steep mid-level lapse rates, and centered over the Mid-South/TN Valley will expand east-northeast towards the central/southern Appalachians with an expansive swath of MLCAPE from 2000-3500 J/kg expected by peak heating. The 12Z BNA sounding well-sampled this potentially volatile environment. To the north of the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume, minimal inhibition will result in scattered thunderstorms forming by midday centered on far southern OH across eastern KY ahead of the aforementioned trough. This activity will progress into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream, yielding many supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Upscale growth into several linear clusters with embedded supercells is anticipated during the afternoon as convective coverage becomes widespread from PA/MD south-southwest across the southern Appalachian states. Forecast soundings suggest the greatest tornado threat will probably exist across eastern KY/TN northeast across southern/eastern WV, western VA, central MD and into southeast PA. Given the supercell wind profiles, significant severe wind gusts will also be possible on a localized basis. Across the Southeast, the separate mid-level speed max approaching the Mid-South, aiding in the low-level warm-advection regime of elevated thunderstorms over OK/AR this morning, will likely support scattered surface-based thunderstorms forming across the TN Valley by early afternoon. With large buoyancy downstream within the gradient of the strong low to mid-level flow, an extensive linear MCS will likely develop and spread east-southeast across the Carolinas and GA. Widespread damaging winds will be possible here as well, with convection likely weakening towards/after sunset as it approaches the south Atlantic coast.

Large 45 percent hatched wind

Um, that's a large 10% tor probs on the 1300z SPC OTLK... was not really expecting that

45% hatched I would guess

Very detailed and well written AFD this morning about all threats even into tonight re tornado potential re-emergeing after the QLCS threat NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This morning, low stratus is becoming more widespread east of the Blue Ridge, and should cover most of that area by sunrise. To the west, a combination of low stratus and patchy fog is expected. The upper level clouds have mostly cleared, so once daytime heating begins the stratus should burn off by late morning. Daytime heating brings temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s. Combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s, expect peak heat indices between 100- 105 east of the Blue Ridge, and 95-99 west. One feature that bears watching is a decaying MCS, with an apparent MCV, that is moving into southern OH as of 3AM. This complex has a high chance of bringing some light rain and cloud cover to our area at some point this morning. That could disrupt some of the severe potential for this afternoon, though the remnant MCV could also act to enhance severe potential - IF it tracks through at the right time. This something to closely follow this morning. Looking ahead at this afternoon and evening, given that we destabilize, all signs point to a likely widespread severe wind event across our area, though all modes of severe weather are possible. A large mid-level trough over the western OH Valley this morning will move eastward toward the Central Appalachians, with two surface lows noted early this morning - one over southern ON and the other along the IN/IL border. These surface lows deepen through the afternoon, with models indicating pressure in the low 1000mb range, which is quite impressive for early August (for a non-tropical low). Storms are expected to develop in a favorable environment today where surface dew points in the low 70s and impressive mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km yield around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE (SBCAPE up to 2500+ J/kg possible). Storms should easily become organized with deep-layer shear of 35-50KT. Multiple rounds of storms are likely to impact the area today. The moist airmass, approaching PVA max, and remnant MCV could initiate late morning to early afternoon activity west of I-81 into north- central MD. There is some potential for a storm or two to become severe, with damaging winds and hail as the main threats. The main surge is expected to develop by mid afternoon as the strong synoptic forcing arrives, and is enhanced by the existing terrain circulation and lee-side pressure trough. Models are rather good agreement on timing, indicating numerous storms developing west of the Blue Ridge between 2PM-3PM. These initial semi-discrete/cluster storms could pose a large hail threat, in addition to damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. These storms move east of the Blue Ridge between 4PM-5PM, and likely congeal into a solid/quasi-solid line that reaches the I-95 corridor between 6PM-7PM. This QLCS will be capable of producing widespread damaging wind gusts, in addition to the possibility of embedded QLCS tornadoes. Tornadoes that develop within these squall lines typically have little lead time due to their rapid genesis. It is important to take immediate action if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area. The hail threat should diminish as the line of storms pushes eastward. Finally, as the main mid-level trough moves over our area it could initiate an additional broken line of showers and thunderstorms later this evening. A low-level jet will have developed by that time, and model soundings respond to the increasing low-level shear with very wide hodographs, especially east of the Blue Ridge. There will be a conditional tornado threat that lasts past sunset, and given the strong shear, it won`t take much instability for these storms to intensify. Be sure you have multiple ways of receiving severe weather alerts today, and take immediate action if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued for your location.

Is it clear out west along the i81 corridor right now?

If @Ellinwood is posting about chasing, does that mean we are at Level 4?

45 percent wind and 5 percent tornado both increased in size on new Day 1

Should be raining right now for you per Radarscope

True, but I believe LWX mentioned in their AFD from this morning that we don't necessarily need a lot of sunshine to destabilize tomorrow due to the extreme shear ETA - yup, it was this morning Let me preface the further detailed environmental analysis that uncertainty remains regarding how morning cldcvr or convective debris may impact the SVR potential in the afternoon. Latest guidance moves clouds out by mid-late morning and quickly destabilizes the region. Given the dynamics and kinematics at play, a long period of heating may not be necessary for the potential of this event to be realized

Not saying it's the same at all, but didn't one of our June derechos have this type of potential scenario happen?

Should move into the DC metro within the hour Starting to thunder here There's more down SW of EZF moving NE... wonder if that makes it up here later this evening

Kinda of odd to say, but the best team in the AL right now is the Orioles with 70 wins

Some real impressive soundings coming out from both the 18z NAM and 18z NAM NEST tomorrow evening across the region, particularly approaching the i95 corridor as get closer to 00z

Afternoon AFD from LWX about tomorrow .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Given the persistent low-level warm advection overnight, low clouds and patchy fog will likely blanket portions of the area. How quickly the mid-summer solar angle can erode these stratus clouds will dictate the timing and intensity of Monday`s convective weather event. All severe parameters are coming into alignment, accompanied by rather extreme shear profiles for early August. A robust shortwave tracking from the Upper Great Lakes will arrive during the peak in the diurnal heating cycle. Further, between 18Z Monday and 06Z Tuesday, 12-hour height falls are likely to run between 5-7 dm which is impressive for the time of year. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the entire area in an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms. While the main threat is damaging to locally destructive winds, a few tornadoes and large hail reports are also possible. If convection is able to thrive into the mid/late evening, an increasing low-level jet will lead to enlarged 0-1 km hodographs. This would support some degree of tornado risk if the event persists. An additional issue will be the risk for flash flooding given the threat for 1-2 inches of rainfall, locally up to 3-5 inches. The HREF signal really jumps off the charts with some of the Day 2 totals noted in a few of its ensemble members. Depending on how this evening`s convection pans out, this will dictate areas which would be vulnerable to additional heavy rainfall.