yoda

SPC debated adding ENH and 30 wind for us on 1730z OTLK, but decided against it per discussion Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over southern New England into the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday. Damaging gusts are the primary hazard. Widely scattered severe storms are also possible over the north-central Great Plains late Saturday into Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge centered over the Divide will amplify on Saturday. Some amplification of the cyclonic flow aloft over the Northeast is also expected. At the surface, a frontal boundary will continue to sag southward within the Plains into the Northeast. This front will likely become more diffuse with time, however. Farther west, modest moist upslope flow will occur in the central/northern High Plains behind the boundary. ...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop by afternoon either along the front or along a surface trough near the Blue Ridge. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, strong surface heating and a very moist boundary layer will support moderate to strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The greatest values will likely occur within central/eastern Virginia into perhaps the Delmarva. Farther north, more limited heating and weaker mid-level lapse rates will limit overall destabilization. With the amplifying upper-level pattern, moderate mid-level winds will exist as far south as the northern Mid-Atlantic and decrease fairly rapidly to the south. That being said, the overlap of the most buoyant air and the greater deep-layer shear will not be spatially broad. Given the degree of buoyancy, damaging downburst winds are the expected primary threat with isolated large hail possible with initial storm development. A complicating factor in the forecast will be the timing and location of an MCV moving out of the Great Lakes region. Depending on where this feature is located, an area of greater mesoscale shear and storm coverage could develop within a zone from central Virginia into the Delmarva. Confidence remains too low for an increase in wind probabilities.

Wind was from the north at the 12pm obs FWIW

100 incoming imo

Its coming... the storms in Loudoun are moving SE

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 539 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0514 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NE Winchester 39.18N 78.16W 07/27/2023 Frederick VA 911 Call Center Several trees blew down in the City of Winchester. && Event Number LWX2301511

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0511 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 SSW Dickerson 39.21N 77.44W 07/27/2023 Montgomery MD County Emergy Mg Several trees and wires blew down near Dickerson, including near the intersection of MD-28 Dickerson Road and Martinsburg Road. && Event Number LWX2301509

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 526 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 526 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Purcellville, or 8 miles west of Leesburg, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Leesburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Bluemont, Oatlands, Hamilton, Paeonian Springs, Gleedsville, Philomont, Lincoln and Hughesville.

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 522 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0517 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Winchester Rgnl Arpt 39.14N 78.14W 07/27/2023 M69 mph Frederick VA AWOS A wind gust of 60 knots (69 MPH) was measured by the AWOS at Winchester Regional Airport (KOKV). && Event Number LWX2301510

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 512 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 512 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Boyds, or near Poolesville, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Olney, Poolesville, Aspen Hill, Potomac, North Bethesda, Montgomery Village, North Potomac, Redland, Boyds, Clarksburg, Darnestown, Derwood, Washington Grove, Laytonsville, Barnesville, Dickerson and Beallsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

You now have a STW!

Will it be a miss for @EastCoast NPZ? BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 502 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... West central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 502 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winchester, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Stephens City, Boyce, Millwood, Greenwood, Briggs and Stringtown

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 457 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Western Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 457 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of Davis, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Petersburg, Streby, Maysville, Welton, Cabins, Arthur, Kline Gap, Seymourville and Lahmansville.

Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Areas affected...Parts of PA into northern MD/VA...eastern WV...DC...Northern DE...NJ Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555... Valid 272046Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may gradually increase into early evening. DISCUSSION...Late this afternoon, convection is gradually deepening along two corridors across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. The southernmost corridor is a broadly confluent zone from southwest PA into northern MD, within a region of somewhat greater low/midlevel moisture. Storms have been gradually intensifying along this corridor, where deep-layer shear is rather weak, but sufficient for a modestly organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind in the presence of moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates. An uptick in the damaging-wind threat is possible along this corridor as storm coverage gradually increases into early evening. Farther north, increasing cumulus is noted along a diffuse surface boundary from western into northeast PA, with storms gradually developing from northeast to southwest. Deep-layer shear is generally rather weak in this area as well, though low/midlevel flow gradually increases with eastward extent, in closer proximity to a departing mid/upper-level shortwave trough across New England. Isolated storms may develop as far west as west-central PA, but somewhat greater coverage is expected across eastern PA into this evening. Steepened low-level lapse rates will support at least a localized damaging-wind threat with any stronger storms across this area. ..Dean.. 07/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

Probably some flood warnings will be coming soon as well BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 422 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 422 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Brunswick to near Charles Town, moving east at 5 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Charles Town, Poolesville, Brunswick, Ranson, Point Of Rocks, Corporation Of Ranson, Adamstown, Lovettsville, Barnesville, Hillsboro, Waterford, Neersville, Doubs, Park Mills, Lucketts, Dickerson, Beallsville, Tuscarora, Millville and Taylorstown.

I guess we are also watching the stuff back in Garrett County? Warning says its moving SE

Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC021-043-VAC107-WVC037-272015- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0169.230727T1936Z-230727T2015Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... North central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 336 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ranson, or near Shepherdstown, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Charles Town, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Ranson, Braddock Heights, Harpers Ferry, Kearneysville, Point Of Rocks, Corporation Of Ranson, Adamstown, Jefferson, Lovettsville, Bolivar, Buckeystown, Shenandoah Junction, Rosemont, Rohrersville, Burkittsville and Gapland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3927 7796 3936 7794 3941 7789 3946 7744 3924 7745 TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 266DEG 22KT 3935 7783 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Hmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 246 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A Bermuda high will remain in place offshore through Saturday. A surface trough will remain overhead through Saturday before a cold front passes through the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will likely return early next week while an upper-level trough builds overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-level clouds have dissipated for the most part, and this has allowed for hot and humid conditions. The Heat Advisory for near/east of Interstate 81 to the Bay remains in effect for heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees. The heat and humidity has led to plenty of instability. Latest mesoanalysis shows around 1 to 3 KJ/KG of MLCAPE, but there is inhibition as of early this afternoon. Current feeling is that a surface trough axis over southwest PA will merge into a weak trough over north-central MD into northern VA as the upper-level trough axis to our north moves eastward. This added lift should be enough for some storms to develop late this afternoon. If storms do develop, then more storms will likely develop due to the boundaries produced by the convection. Shear is marginal, but higher CAPE and DCAPE suggest that damaging winds are a threat, along with the possibility of large hail. There is the possibility that coverage of severe storms can be numerous around northern VA into the DC and Baltimore Metro areas for reasons mentioned above.

I think we did

Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Southeast New York Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a cold front and spread eastward across the watch area. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest cells through the afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles west northwest of Augusta ME to 30 miles south of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

You Severe Thunderstorm Watch

12pm temps BWI 89 IAD 87 DCA 86

1630z OTLK from SPC keeps the SLGT risk for wind

ENH just went up for MN/WI on 1630z OTLK... 30 percent hatched hail and wind