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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX seems to suggest we have 3 days of chances, Sat-Mon is complicates the forecast and lowers uncertainty wrt how much recovery there could be before the aforementioned wave moves through. Overall chances for showers and thunderstorms appear to be higher west of the Blue Ridge. The environment looks seasonably moist with MLCAPE values near ~1500 J/kg and 20-25 kts of shear. Cannot rule out some strong to severe storms. There is varying flow with height, so storms may not initially move a lot resulting in a low end flood/flash flood threat. Will also have to monitor upstream convective activity for potential local impacts as some guidance has an MCS in the Ohio Valley Saturday night or early Sunday morning. This in turn complicates Sunday`s forecast. Come Sunday, a potent trough will move through the Ohio Valley with flow increasing ahead of this feature along with ample moisture return. There is a notable overlap in CAPE and shear Sunday, which could result in severe thunderstorms areawide. Clear skies Sunday morning will result in a volatile environment. Also possible convective debris Sunday morning limits the convective potential locally. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sunday night, all attention will turn to a very potent shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. A strong MCS associated with this system will make its way eastward across the Ohio Valley into Sunday evening, before approaching the Allegheny Front Sunday night. The biggest uncertainty lies with what it does after that. Decaying MCS`s are one of the most difficult weather phenomena to predict, and this is no exception. Guidance is still all over the place with available instability east of the mountains overnight Sunday into Monday. The most likely scenario is that the MCS decays as it crosses the mountains, and areas see some residual showers and clouds into Monday morning. However, should the higher end of guidance hold true, we could see re-formation east of the Shenandoah Valley somewhere. All in all, this is a very complex forecast, and the Storm Prediction has our area highlighted with a Slight Risk as a result, so it is something that is being closely monitored. Beyond that, the primary upper trough should move through on Monday, bringing another chance for afternoon showers and storms. The level of severity is going to depend greatly on the events that occur Sunday evening, and what amount of cloud debris is left over our area. Best chance would be during the late afternoon/evening hours.
  2. yoda
    It actually rained there?
  3. yoda
    True, but still has really nice shear and CAPE values
  4. yoda
    12z NAM still has some pretty impressive soundings for Sunday into Monday... and has an MCS rolling through Saturday evening
  5. yoda
    Back offline and then back online... guess they're testing some stuff
  6. yoda
    Pretty impressive at range and especially overnight too Hr 81 just south of DC is lol
  7. yoda
    Was this posted earlier? If so, my apologies... but this is pretty neat -- https://fire.airnow.gov/
  8. yoda
    Can someone explain to me or point me in the direction of where I can read up and learn about what @Kmlwx bolded above in this morning's AFD from LWX? I understand the 0-6km as deep layer shear... so would 0-3km be low level shear?
  9. yoda
    So far so good on our radar returning shortly NOUS61 KLWX 281817 FTMLWX MESSAGE DATE: JUN 28 2023 18:14:00 THE KLWX WSR-88D REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE AS IT UNDERGOES AN IMPORTANT UPGRADE TO REFURBISH AND REPLACE THE PEDESTAL. ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE IS JUNE 30TH, BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED ISSUES. DURING THE DOWNTIME, ADJACENT RADARS WILL BE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING: WAKEFIELD, VA (KAKQ), ROANOKE, VA (KFCX), DOVER, DE (KDOX), CHARLESTON, WV (KRLX), PITTSBURGH, PA (KPBZ), STATE COLLEGE, PA (KCTP), AND FORT DIX, NJ (KDIX)...ALSO FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER RADARS FOR DULLES (TIAD), REAGAN NATIONAL (TDCA), THURGOOD MARSHALL BWI (TBWI), AND JOINT BASE ANDREWS (TADW). FOR DIRECT ACCESS TO ANY OF THESE SURROUNDING RADAR SITES, VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV/ $$ KR
  10. yoda
    Most likely... I just saw the MRGL risk on day 3 into our region. Would like a decent MCS to come rolling through the region... we haven't had one of those in awhile
  11. yoda
    Guess we'll be on MCS watch late Friday?
  12. yoda
    Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0225 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Tysons Corner 38.92N 77.23W 06/27/2023 Fairfax VA Broadcast Media The ramp from eastbound VA-7 Leesburg Pike to northbound VA-123 Chain Bridge Road was blocked by downed trees. && Event Number LWX2301183
  13. yoda
    Mod risk coming for S KS and N OK in 1630z OTLK for wind - which means it's 45 and sig
  14. yoda
    Happy Birthday @mappy! I hope it is awesomesauce!
  15. yoda
    I'll put this here
  16. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/23062618_OBS/
  17. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 236 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Southeastern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 236 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brandywine, or near Franklin, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Franklin, Broadway, Brandywine, Tunis, Yankeetown, Cherry Grove, Fulks Run, Singers Glen, Deer Run, Rawley Springs, Linville, Bergton, Oak Flat, Moyers, Sugar Grove, Criders and Sparkling Springs. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
  18. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 239 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northwestern Augusta County in western Virginia... Southeastern Highland County in western Virginia... * Until 330 PM EDT. * At 239 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles east of Monterey, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bridgewater, Verona, Dayton, Mount Sidney, Head Waters, Moscow, West Augusta, Palo Alto, Montezuma, Clover Hill, Mount Solon, Sangerville, Fort Defiance and Hinton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
  19. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Warnings coming out quickly for the storms firing out west
  20. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... North central Allegany County in western Maryland... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 229 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Cumberland, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Cumberland, La Vale, Ridgeley, Ellerslie, Corriganville, Flintstone, Wolfe Mill and Pleasant Valley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
  21. yoda
    Correct for MD/VA/DC Basically all LWX CWA except for extreme S MD (Calvert and St. Mary's)
  22. yoda
    ENH risk nudged westward a tad on 1630z OTLK towards i81 corridor
  23. yoda
    02z HRRR has some explosive development in the i81 corridor at teh end of its run that looks like it matches the 00z NAM Nest a bit
  24. yoda
    00z NAM Nest has a large UD Helicity Swath just north of DC metro around 19z-21z (basically IAD to BWI)
  25. yoda
    Bye Cindy Remnants Of Cindy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023 Satellite imagery this evening shows that the low-cloud swirl associated with Cindy has again become void of deep convection. In addition, imagery animation and scatterometer data indicates that the system no longer has a closed circulation. Thus, the cyclone has degenerated to a tropical wave or trough and this will be the last advisory. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and it is anticipated that the maximum winds will drop below tropical-storm force during the next several hours. The initial motion is 315/12. The remnants of Cindy should continue a general northwestward motion for the next couple of days, and then turn northward on the eastern side of a deep-layer baroclinic trough over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic. In the short term, there is little chance of any regeneration due to continued southwesterly vertical shear. However, after 48 h or so, the shear should diminish, and there is a chance that Cindy could regenerate after that time near or north of Bermuda. However, the model support for this has decreased over the last 24 h, and currently there is not enough confidence in regeneration to explicitly show it in the forecast. This is the last advisory on Cindy by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 22.8N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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