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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure sliding to our south will bring widespread light to
moderate snow to the region. The low pressure system will slide off
the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning with arctic high pressure
building in. Dry and cold conditions are expected midweek before
another wave of low pressure and front approach Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Snow will continue to pick up in intensity while overspreading the
area from the south and west this afternoon. This is in response to
a strong wave of low pressure ejecting out of the Tennessee River
Valley and into the central Appalachians later this evening and
into the overnight hours. The strongest lift with this system
looks to arrive between 6pm-2am. This is when most of the area
could see a period of moderate snow. Current 12z HREF guidance
continues to hold on a general 3 to 5 inches of snow across much
of northern/central MD and northern VA with even a few members
hinting at amounts of 6"+ across northern portions of Frederick,
Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, and Cecil counties (in the favored
climo/Parrs Ridge zone). Elsewhere, a general 2-4 inches of
snow is likely across much of the Shenandoah Valley, central VA,
and southern MD. Some freezing rain may mix in on the tail end
of the system across central VA and southern MD with warmer air
trying to work in as it departs Tuesday. Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect for the aforementioned threats
above. These advisories may need to be re- evaluated especially
with forecast snow to liquid ratios running as high as 20:1
during the period of strongest upward motion this evening into
the front half of the overnight hours. Mountain locations will
see a touch more snow with accumulations ranging between 4 to 8
inches along and west of the Allegheny Front. This is due to the
added lift from the terrain plus upslope component that looks
to keep snow going through early Tuesday afternoon. Highest snow
amounts look to be from Keysers Ridge south along Backbone
Mountain and down toward Spruce Knob, WV where Winter Storm
Warnings remain in effect.
High temperatures will range from the teens over the mountains to
upper 20s across most of the region. Lows will be quite similar
overnight in the mid to upper 20s areawide outside the mountains.
Low pressure will continue to lift north and east of the
Delmarva coast Tuesday morning. Some light snow may linger over
northern MD through mid-morning with upslope snow showers set
to continue in northwest flow over the mountains through Tuesday
afternoon. Highs Tuesday will range between the teens over the
mountains to mid to upper 30s south/east of I-95.