yoda

Oh (NW Prince William County)

Some quite large hail markers on the SARS as well on the 12z NAM soundings on COD

Tornado Watch up for Central and Eastern Iowa https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0370.html

All I see from TBWI is out of service until further notice

Afternoon AFD from LWX Confidence continues to increase for severe weather Monday especially for areas near/east of the Interstate 81 corridor. 12z deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show continuity in the timing and strength of the deepening/digging trough over the Great Lakes region and it`s associated cold front set to cross the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Both the deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show a bit of a negative tilt to the trough as it sinks south into central Appalachians region. This will shift the best height falls and forcing along and ahead of the cold front as it pushes across the area Monday afternoon. Instability will be ample ahead of the boundary with ensemble mean CAPE around 1500-2500 j/kg per the latest 12z guidance. Bulk effective 0-6km shear values will also be on the order of 25-40 kts with mid- level lapse rates around 7-8 c/km during the peak heating period. This will further updraft growth along with organized and fairly linear activity compared to singular storms or complexes ahead of the boundary as it passes through. For that reason, the Storm Prediction Center currently highlights all areas east of the Alleghenies in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Flooding concerns will remain limited, but non-zero even with D1 and D2 drought antecedent conditions. The high precipitable water airmass (>1.25-1.50 inches) coupled with strongly forced convection should yield some opportunity for flooding, especially in urbanized areas. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center has painted a Slight risk for flooding over this area.

00z GFS still has a pretty impressive sim radar at 00z for the region

Some impressive soundings from the 00z NAM tonight across the region... some big hail markers too for Monday's threat on the SARS

Piotrowski just tweeted there was a tornado crossing Highway 92

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 NEC123-157-165-240200- /O.CON.KCYS.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-230624T0200Z/ Scotts Bluff NE-Morrill NE-Sioux NE- 746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR Gering and Scottsbluff!... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR EASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF...NORTHWESTERN MORRILL AND SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTIES... At 745 PM MDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located 7 miles south of Gering, or near Scottsbluff, moving northeast at 25 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Gering and Scottsbluff!. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Minatare around 750 PM MDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Lake Minatare Campground and Lake Minatare. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous weather. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4174 10366 4192 10378 4201 10359 4200 10342 4190 10336 4181 10337 TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 245DEG 28KT 4188 10359 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080723

Still pretty impressive on the 18z... few hours later though

Pouring here now

Pretty cool

Pretty decent soundings from 12z NAM at range - 78 hours till the end at 84

30-40kts of deep layer shear should be enough, though it would be nicer to see 40-50kts IMO

Quick heavy rain showers here right now

ML Lapse Rates are nice too... some 8C/KM showing up

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Bret threw some interesting data at us during the couple of hours after the release of the previous advisory. On the last pass of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through Bret's center, the plane measured SFMR winds as high as 69 kt and a dropsonde surface pressure of 996 mb with 31 kt of wind. Significant mid-level westerly shear is still affecting the system, and a 0539 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed a well-defined mid-level eye feature displaced about a degree to the east of Bret's low-level center. It appears that the strong SFMR winds were measured beneath the strong convection in the western mid-level eyewall feature, so it's possible that they were transient and convectively driven. That said, Bret's initial intensity was raised to 60 kt on the 2 am intermediate advisory out of an abundance of caution, and that remains the current estimate. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bret in a few hours and will hopefully confirm whether or not the storm is still producing winds that strong. Vertical shear is expected to gradually increase over the next couple of days as Bret approaches an upper-level trough located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The storm could maintain its intensity or fluctuate in intensity through much of today, but it is expected to begin weakening by tonight once it crosses the Lesser Antilles and moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Global model fields indicate that Bret should degenerate into a trough over the central Caribbean Sea by day 3, which is shown in the official forecast. There are no changes in the track forecast reasoning. Bret is moving toward the west, or 280/13 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. An accelerated westward motion is expected during the next few days as Bret weakens, and the NHC track forecast is a little faster than the consensus aids, hedging toward the faster GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and there is risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the island chain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles today and then move across those islands this evening and tonight as a strong tropical storm. 2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional watches or warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 13.7N 56.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 13.9N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 14.1N 61.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 14.6N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Satellite images and earlier satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the central Atlantic now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The depression has a partially exposed low-level center with a small area of deep convection to its west. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving just north of west or 280/9 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and accelerate on the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next few days. After that time, the depression is forecast to turn northwestward towards a weakness in the ridge east of the Leeward Islands. The model guidance is fairly well-clustered, and the NHC official forecast lies near the model consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening over the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so. Beyond 72 h, global models agree the vertical wind shear should increase significantly and weaken the cyclone. The NHC intensity prediction starts out conservatively and is near lower end of the guidance envelope, most similar to the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 11.3N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 12.0N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.1N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.6N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 20.9N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 23.3N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 41.1W ABOUT 1395 MI...2240 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 41.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to increase with a turn toward the northwest during the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to remain east of the northern Leeward Islands through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Morning's AFD from LWX regarding Monday sounds tasty By Monday, a trough digging across the Great Lakes and Midwest will pivot toward the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Height falls and DCVA ahead of the trough, modest diffluence aloft in the right entrance region of a neutral to slight negative tilt upper trough, and low- level convergence along and ahead of an associated surface cold front will likely trigger showers and at least scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The 00Z GFS/CMC/UKMET all show mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km (though note the 00z ECMWF is weaker around 6.5.7 C/km) attendant to a remnant EML plume. These values are noteworthy for this part of the country in late June, perhaps an indication of heightened potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Additionally, 850-500 hPa winds of 30-40 kts with some low-level veering may lend to both low and deep layer shear, which would aid thunderstorm organization. Timing and strength differences remain, especially beyond Monday night regarding just how quickly the upper trough and surface cold front exit the region. Kept PoPs in the forecast during the favorable afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday with the front nearby.

Finally some talk of severe starting this weekend into next week from both SPC and LWX

Guess I beat @snowman19 to this lol