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Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC021-043-VAC107-WVC037-272015- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0169.230727T1936Z-230727T2015Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... North central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 336 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ranson, or near Shepherdstown, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Charles Town, Ballenger Creek, Brunswick, Ranson, Braddock Heights, Harpers Ferry, Kearneysville, Point Of Rocks, Corporation Of Ranson, Adamstown, Jefferson, Lovettsville, Bolivar, Buckeystown, Shenandoah Junction, Rosemont, Rohrersville, Burkittsville and Gapland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3927 7796 3936 7794 3941 7789 3946 7744 3924 7745 TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 266DEG 22KT 3935 7783 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Hmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 246 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A Bermuda high will remain in place offshore through Saturday. A surface trough will remain overhead through Saturday before a cold front passes through the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will likely return early next week while an upper-level trough builds overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-level clouds have dissipated for the most part, and this has allowed for hot and humid conditions. The Heat Advisory for near/east of Interstate 81 to the Bay remains in effect for heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees. The heat and humidity has led to plenty of instability. Latest mesoanalysis shows around 1 to 3 KJ/KG of MLCAPE, but there is inhibition as of early this afternoon. Current feeling is that a surface trough axis over southwest PA will merge into a weak trough over north-central MD into northern VA as the upper-level trough axis to our north moves eastward. This added lift should be enough for some storms to develop late this afternoon. If storms do develop, then more storms will likely develop due to the boundaries produced by the convection. Shear is marginal, but higher CAPE and DCAPE suggest that damaging winds are a threat, along with the possibility of large hail. There is the possibility that coverage of severe storms can be numerous around northern VA into the DC and Baltimore Metro areas for reasons mentioned above.

I think we did

Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Southeast New York Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a cold front and spread eastward across the watch area. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest cells through the afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles west northwest of Augusta ME to 30 miles south of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

You Severe Thunderstorm Watch

12pm temps BWI 89 IAD 87 DCA 86

1630z OTLK from SPC keeps the SLGT risk for wind

ENH just went up for MN/WI on 1630z OTLK... 30 percent hatched hail and wind

1630z OTLK remains same

Updated AFD from LWX thinks so

Watch coming later this afternoon for parts of the LWX CWA per MCD

Mesoscale Discussion 1736 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023 Areas affected...NY Hudson Valley into parts of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271505Z - 271700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a tornado or two will increase later today. Watch issuance is likely by late morning or early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across northern NY this morning, and will approach northern New England by early afternoon. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak surface low will move across northern NY/VT, as rich low-level moisture streams northeastward into a larger portion of New England. The 13 UTC sounding from SUNY-Albany depicts a favorable wind profile for organized convection, with rather strong midlevel flow and deep-layer shear, but also very weak midlevel lapse rates. Despite the weak lapse rates and rather widespread cloudiness, modest boundary-layer heating/moistening and ascent attendant to the shortwave trough will likely support deepening convection by early afternoon across the region. With weak instability, it may take some time for storms to mature, but a few supercells and organized clusters may evolve with time. Rather strong low-level flow will support a damaging-wind threat, especially where somewhat stronger heating can occur. Also, while the strongest low-level shear/SRH will tend to be somewhat displaced from the more favorable instability, a tornado or two will also be possible, given the potential for supercells within a very moist and favorably shear environment. Watch issuance is likely by late morning or early afternoon in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

That's pretty much going to be our severe potential for the next few days -- wind. Maybe a slight chance of a large hail report or weak spin-up

No change in the 1300z SPC OTLK

SLGT risk remains for today on the 1300z SPC OTLK

Dang does 00z NAM sim radar look TASTY for Saturday night lol ETA -- Haven't seen a PDS TOR sounding in a while either... 00z NAM tossing those out at hour 72 near the WV/VA border into E WV just west of the i81 corridor

Also, 18z NAM has some nice soundings and parameters for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night

That's some explosive development of severe storms tomorrow afternoon on the 18z NAM NEST 18z HRRR is pretty good IMO

I'm thinking 100 on Friday at DCA... didn't Ian have a chart or something that had like temperatures that we needed to be at or hit in the morning to reach 100? Like 90 by 10am?

Probably... but was thinking EHW just because first time it's really hot (temperatures near 100 and HI nearing 110)

Recurve and barely gets us anything

Maybe some EHWs? LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the middle to latter portions of the week, an anomalous upper ridge maintains its stranglehold over the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, troughing across eastern Canada gradually retreats northward as a western Atlantic ridge expands back to the Eastern Seaboard. In between the pair of ridges will be a weakness in the flow extending from the Gulf Coast up toward the Tennessee Valley. Overall, ensembles agree on above average 500-mb heights extending across a vast majority of the country. This results in a notable warming trend across the Mid-Atlantic region, likely resulting in the hottest stretch of the year. Multi-ensemble temperature plots show highs soaring well into the 90s during the period, particularly on Thursday and Friday. During these days, models are in agreement in carrying high temperatures to the upper 90s. Low-level moisture should be abundant owing to a multi-day period of warm/moist advection. Expectations are dew points will rise into the low 70s which allows heat indices to surge into the 105 to 110 degree range. As this stands, heat-related headlines would be needed both days if the forecast holds up. As is common in these regimes, little relief is expected at night with most seeing low temperatures in the 70s. While the region is well into the "Dog Days of Summer", the hottest stretch of the year will certainly require added public response. This would include limiting outdoor exposure during the afternoon hours, staying hydrated, wearing light-colored clothes, and finding air-conditioned indoor spaces. Despite all the heat and humidity in the atmosphere, daily convective chances are quite limited. The upper ridging should squash many of the developing updrafts. The best chance for any relief from such storms would be across the Alleghenies. Thunderstorm chances increase into next weekend as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and west. A gradual reduction in mid/upper heights is forecast to slowly bring temperatures back to the low/mid 90s next weekend.

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Don Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 Don's structure on satellite imagery remains well organized for a tropical cyclone at such a high latitude in late July. A small but distinct eye has persisted, surrounded by moderately cold cloud tops. However, the coldest cloud tops are beginning to erode on the north edge of the eye, and the upper-level outflow has also become more restricted in that direction. These factors likely indicate that Don is starting to feel the effects of nearby cooler waters and increased vertical wind shear that will ultimately lead to a swift decline in intensity. For now, the latest subjective Dvorak estimates were T4.0 (65 kt) from both SAB and TAFB, and objective intensity estimates currently range from 53 kt to 69 kt. It is worth noting that UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have been much lower, apparently due to that objective technique failing to pick up on the eye pattern seen on satellite today. Discounting that outlier, a blend of other subjective and objective data supports an initial intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Don's wind radii have also been adjusted some due to a helpful ASCAT-B pass at 2348 UTC. Now that Don is moving north of a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, the cyclone should soon encounter much colder sea-surface temperatures along its track. Thus, steady weakening is expected to begin shortly. As Don quickly loses its deep convection, the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 h, with the circulation expected to open up into a trough axis after 48 h. This forecast is in good agreement with the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Don is now moving to the north-northeast a bit faster than before at 015/12 kt. A continued turn to the northeast with a bit more acceleration is anticipated overnight into tomorrow as Don is embedded within southwesterly steering flow between a subtropical ridge to its southeast and a deep-layer trough located over eastern Canada. This pattern should persist until Don dissipates, with the system continuing to recurve eastward over the next 48 h. The track guidance has shifted a bit faster than the prior cycle but still remains along a similar trajectory. Thus the NHC track forecast remains very close to the prior track, but just a little faster. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 41.4N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 43.3N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 45.5N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 47.2N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/0000Z 48.1N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN Hurricane Don Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 ...DON STILL A HURRICANE BUT BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.4N 49.6W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Don was located near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 49.6 West. Don is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn northeastward is expected tomorrow, with a northeastward to east-northeastward motion expected to continue until the system dissipates Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected to begin shortly, and Don is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin