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yoda

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  1. yoda
    70/30 wind probs are decent
  2. yoda
    Comes out on kamala usually 5-10 minutes before SPC puts it up https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/
  3. yoda
    Watch up till 10pm
  4. yoda
    I'd watch the cell entering Culpepper county... looks like its increasing VIL and could have a small hail core soon
  5. yoda
    Watch coming soon... 95% per SPC MCD https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1401.html Mesoscale Discussion 1401 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 031742Z - 031945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop in a hot, moist environment. Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible. One or more severe thunderstorm watches are likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Early-afternoon satellite imagery shows developing cumulus along the Appalachians. Some stable billow clouds remain in central/northern Virginia, but they have shown a dissipating trend over the last hour. Farther south, a weak MCV is slowly moving east in central North Carolina. Some convection has recently developed along the northeastern flank of this feature where temperatures are in the low 90s F. Due to modest rising mid-level heights, it seems that convection may still take some time to mature, with the MCV-related storms potentially being an exception. Modest mid-level winds remaining across the region (diminishing with southward extent) will lead to 30-35 kts of effective shear. Strong surface heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (greater with southward extent). Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the next few hours with the potential for strong/severe wind gusts. Large hail is possible with supercell structures, but will be more isolated in nature. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic region in the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
  6. yoda
    Oh I see SPC... 30 wind and 15 hail (which was made much smaller)
  7. yoda
  8. yoda
    Impressive... most Impressive lol Some clearing here... can see some blue sky off to my west
  9. yoda
    Updated morning portion of the LWX AFD... rest of it after this is the same as the early morning disco NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... In response to the remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), light radar returns are noted across the region. Based on their appearance, these should not amount to much in terms of precipitation amounts. Like yesterday, cloud cover is fairly extensive, although there are some breaks seen on the visible satellite imagery. Considering the thermodynamic environment as shown on the 12Z IAD sounding, mid-level lapse rates are somewhat marginal, averaging around 6 C/km. Low-level lapse rates should quickly steepen given daytime heating which would yield higher downdraft CAPE (DCAPE). Capping also appears to be less of an issue, accompanied by plenty of 0-6 km shear which runs around 35 knots. But overall, much will depend on scouring some of this early/mid morning cloud cover.
  10. yoda
    Lol at the impressive UD Helicity swath just north of the DC metro this afternoon on the 06z NAM NEST
  11. yoda
    We try again today lol... 2/15/15 from SPC with talk of a few supercells possible Morning AFD from LWX below: For the rest of today through tonight, an upper-level trough will slide through the Ohio Valley into New England while high pressure remains offshore. A south to southwest flow will continue to usher in very warm and humid conditions to the area. There should be enough breaks of sunshine this morning, and also behind the aforementioned MCV this afternoon for the atmosphere to destabilize. Latest guidance shows around 1.5-3 KJ/KG of MLCAPE developing ahead of a weak cold front/surface trough that will most likely move into the area later this afternoon into this evening from the west (associated with upper-level trough axis to our north). The moderate CAPE will combine with stronger shear profiles, increasing the threat for some severe storms with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary threats. However, the low-level flow may be backed somewhat, increasing low-level shear, so an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The best chance for severe storms and an isolated tornado will be around mid afternoon through this evening near and east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains (where instability will be highest east of the weak cold front/surface trough). When comparing the atmosphere to yesterday thermodynamically, it is similar. There was a small stable layer along with mid- level clouds at times that caused convection to be more sporadic. There is a similar setup today, but it does appear that the low-level forcing will be a bit stronger with the weak boundary moving in. Therefore, we went areal with the pops with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (highest pops near/east of Blue Ridge and Catoctins). Convection should wane later tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Warm and humid conditions will persist with patchy fog possible, especially in areas that do receive rainfall
  12. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued till 11pm for the NE third of the region including the DC and BWI metros
  13. yoda
    00z NAM NEST also has two rounds between 18z and 02z
  14. yoda
    00z HRRR looks decent for two rounds tomorrow between 18z and 01z And around 18z to 22z MON as well
  15. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1371.html Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Areas affected...northern/central Virginia into portions of Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011737Z - 011930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce locally strong gusts and hail through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along a surface trough near the higher terrain of west-central VA. Low to mid 70s surface dewpoints are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid modest midlevel lapse rates. Continued heating will result in steepening low-level lapse rates the next few hours. Vertical shear is expected to remain weak, at or below 20 kt 0-6 km effective bulk shear. This will limit longevity/organization of strong updrafts. Nevertheless, high PW values and boundary-layer mixing to around 1 km could support sporadic downbursts. While midlevel lapse rates and 3-6 km flow will remain weak, large instability from 700-300 mb and somewhat elongated hodographs could support a few instances of near-1 inch hail. The overall threat is expected to remain marginal, and a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
  16. yoda
    1730z SPC OTLK for tomorrow... still SLGT risk ...Mid Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into Ark-La-Tex... Along and just south of the weak frontal zone, the boundary-layer may be initially impacted by a considerable amount of remnant convective outflow. How the associated outflow boundaries evolve through midday Sunday remains unclear, but insolation along and to their south likely will contribute to steepening low-level lapse and moderate to large CAPE in the presence of seasonably high moisture content. This appears likely to occur beneath a belt of 30-40+ kt (perhaps stronger where augmented by prior convection) west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, which may prove conducive to renewed strong and organizing convective development Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated supercell structures are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, before potentially damaging wind gusts with evolving clusters becomes the more prominent hazard.
  17. yoda
    Day 2 0/15/15 SLGT risk for all of LWX CWA... but discussion is kinda surprisingly meh Day 1 is MRGL for all (0/5/5)... SLGT risk for C and SW portions of LWX CWA for wind (15)
  18. yoda
    Its the HRRR
  19. yoda
    Should be an intriguing Day 1 and Day 2 SPC OTLK... maybe even Day 3 lol
  20. yoda
    Looks like a supercell into a bow echo for DC metro Sun afternoon? Hours 42-45 on sim radar
  21. yoda
    00z NAM NEST looks good for tomorrow afternoon into the evening from around 20z on
  22. yoda
    STW with TOR poss tag for C MD BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 441 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Northwestern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Eastern Howard County in central Maryland... Southwestern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 441 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Ellicott City to near Elkridge to Laurel, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Baltimore, Columbia, Severn, Pikesville, Elkridge, Riviera Beach, Baltimore-Washington Airport, Historic Ellicott City, Fort Smallwood State Park, Glen Burnie, Ellicott City, Dundalk, Towson, Catonsville, Woodlawn, Milford Mill, Lochearn, Pasadena, Arbutus and Ferndale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3927 7651 3920 7649 3920 7650 3919 7650 3916 7648 3910 7684 3917 7688 3926 7687 3938 7673 3938 7659 TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 251DEG 14KT 3928 7684 3920 7680 3909 7683 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  23. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 MDC027-302045- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230630T2045Z/ Howard MD- 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY... At 435 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Columbia, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Historic Ellicott City, Ellicott City and Catonsville around 445 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Simpsonville and Ilchester. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3928 7679 3927 7679 3923 7673 3922 7675 3918 7689 3921 7692 3929 7680 TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 240DEG 15KT 3921 7687 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
  24. yoda
    Someone added the hail marker to it See the 429 warning and then the updated 430 one
  25. yoda
    Storm blew up just west of me... pouring here now
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