yoda

2000 SPC OTLK states that threat for severe hail and wind should increase as diurnal heating continues and references the MCD Eskimo Joe posted above

Looks like the sun is trying hard to come back out here

LWX afternoon AFD seems to think 2 more rounds to go... one this evening and one overnight

Hmmm... new Day 1 is 15 hail and 15 wind... all of LWX CWA is in SLGT... hatched hail is off in the Ohio Valley... but disco seems to imply it could get moved eastward some later today... also seems to imply a 1-2 punch for us - afternoon risk and then nocturnal threat

Which will likely be quite a while unfortunately... I miss thunderstorms

Trying again north of Richmond

Looks like CI trying hard NE of Farmville... but got smushed lol

Figured we should bump this thread since we are discussing drought conditions again already in the main thread lol

Um okay... that escalated quickly in the evening AFD

00z NAM still has some decent looking soundings at 21z tomorrow around the region

DCA sounding at 21z tomorrow per 18z NAM

@high risk Pretty decent sounding from the 18z NAM for 21z tomorrow at KIAD, no?

Afternoon AFD from LWX:

1730 SPC OTLK from day 2 has all of us in 2/5/5... mentions supercells with all hazards possible but conditional threat... here is the disco for our region:

Looks like our first chance in a while of some thunderstorms, maybe even an isolated severe threat is on Sunday afternoon

Tornado Watch coming shortly - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0169.html Mesoscale Discussion 0169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Areas affected...Southwest MO/MO Bootheel...Southern IL...Western KY...Northwest/Middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 121613Z - 121815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms as well as the potential for more storms this afternoon and evening will likely necessitate Tornado Watch issuance within the next hour. DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorm currently ongoing across the MO Bootheel eastward into far northwest TN/far western KY has shown a general strengthening trend over the past hour or so. This cluster appears to have been initiated by the low/mid jet streak extending from eastern OK into northern AR/southern MO. This jet streak is expected to continue eastward throughout the day, providing both mesoscale forcing for ascent as well as enhanced low-level vertical shear. The ongoing cluster is evidence that the ascent is enough to lift parcels to their LFCs and the rotation noted in these cells, particularly those over the MO Bootheel and far northwest TN, is evidence of the enhanced vertical shear. Expectation is for this cluster to continue northeastward/eastward. More eastward moving storms will maintain a closer proximity to the warm front extending across the region, resulting in access to greater low-level moisture and higher surface-based potential. Current surface analysis places the warm front from just south of the MO Bootheel east-northeastward to BNA. Primary threat with the elevated/more northeastward-progressing storms will be hail, but the more surface-based/eastward-progressing storms will also have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. These threats will likely prompt watch issuance within the next hour. ..Mosier/Hart.. 03/12/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

SPC has us mentioned in the 1730 DAY 2 OTLK for maybe some gusty winds tomorrow afternoon... no MRGL, just general FWIW

I like Bob's WDI better lol

Maybe something to look forward to next week? From the Day 4-8 SPC OTLK:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1054 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1048 PM TSTM WND GST HAGERSTOWN RGNL ARPT 39.71N 77.73W 03/03/2020 M68 MPH WASHINGTON MD ASOS && EVENT NUMBER LWX2000782

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1054 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... East central Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 1130 PM EST. * At 1054 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Carroll Valley to 6 miles west of Charles Town, moving east at 70 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Westminster, Damascus, Thurmont, Charles Town, Poolesville, Emmitsburg, Shepherdstown, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Mount Airy, Robinwood, Taneytown, Brunswick, Walkersville, Manchester, Ranson, Boonsboro, Smithsburg and Braddock Heights.

Southern part of the line just had the warning cancelled by LWX

Doesn't look like HRRR really had this "line" looking back at the 01z/02z run... kinda intriguing though