yoda

USA in the World Cup even though they lost 2-0 to Costa Rica tonight Finish 3rd behind Mexico and Canada in the table

5/5/15 is my guess on what the new Day 1 OTLK from SPC will show for our region tomorrow

That escalated quickly @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1035 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of low pressure will move from the Mississippi River Valley to the Great Lakes through Thursday. A warm front associated with the low will lift northward through early Thursday, then a strong cold front will cross the region from west to east Thursday night. High pressure is expected to return Friday into Saturday before another area of low pressure moves up and off the coast Sunday. High pressure likely makes a return to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Current surface analysis shows an area of low pressure centered over IL. This area of low pressure will rapidly deepen as it lifts northward into the Great Lakes overnight. As it lifts to the north, it will move a surface warm front northward through the area overnight. This will keep temperatures mild overnight, with temperatures falling off briefly this evening, before rising through the 50s to near 60 by daybreak. Winds will increase out of the south and become quite gusty. Skies will remain cloudy, with lower clouds moving in throughout the night. However, most locations should remain dry through much of the overnight. Low pressure will continue to lift northward through southern Quebec into western Ontario tomorrow. Showers will start to break out across the area tomorrow morning as forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching upper trough starts to overspread the area. These showers will be focused primarily across western portions of the forecast area during the morning hours before gradually spreading eastward during the afternoon hours. Skies should stay mostly cloudy, but a few filtered breaks of sunshine may occur between the showers. By afternoon, most locations should make it into the 70s (primarily due to advection), with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to around 60. This will lead to the development of limited surface based instability (on the order of 200-500 J/kg). Gentle height falls downstream of the trough, coupled with the instability present will lead to the development of thunderstorms across the area, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Some CAMs (notably the 00z HRRR and 00z FV3) have hinted at a relatively cellular convective mode, which seems plausible given the relatively gentle height falls and lack of a stronger shortwave to encourage rapid upscale growth. Given the very strong shear in place (70-90 knots of flow at mid-levels), any isolated cells would become supercellular in nature. All hazards (tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds) appear possible, especially if the storm mode is primarily supercellular. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, given the very strong low- level jet that will be in place (50-70 knots at 1 km). Winds will be very gusty, even outside of storms, with southerly winds in clear air potentially approaching Wind Advisory criteria. There may also be a threat for localized flash flooding. If the convective mode does turn out more linear, there is a large component of the flow aloft parallel to any initiating boundaries, so there could be some localized training of storms (in spite of the very fast storm motions). Any storms should progress eastward throughout the evening hours. We`ll continue to monitor the threat for severe storms through the night and into the day tomorrow.

70/50 tor probs... >95/50 wind probs https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0080.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 80 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Middle Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of storms will continue quickly east-northeastward this evening into Middle TN and northern/central Alabama. Very strong low-level/deep-layer winds will support the potential for tornadoes and widespread damaging winds as additional moistening occurs into the region.

Well that escalated quickly Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast States. All severe hazards are possible, including significant gusts over 75 mph and strong (EF2+) tornadoes. ...SEVERE-WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA... ...Synopsis... A strong southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from central KS through the TX Hill Country early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward throughout the day, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this through, with 100+ kt at 500 mb stretching from southeast TX northeastward through the Mid-South Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, very strong low-level flow will precede this feature, with a large area of 60+ kt at 850 mb expected across the MS Valley Wednesday afternoon. Low-level moisture advection will also precede this shortwave trough, bringing at least low 60s dewpoints through the Mid-South/TN Valley. Upper 50s dewpoints will likely reach into the Lower/Middle OH Valley. These dewpoints will help foster at least modest buoyancy and thunderstorms are anticipated as the shortwave ejects northeastward over this moist and buoyant airmass. Given the strength of the wind fields, severe thunderstorms are likely, particularly across portions of the Lower MS Valley and Southeast where a regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is anticipated. ...Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the Ozark Plateau southwestward into East TX early Wednesday. Expectation is for this line of storms to quickly move eastward, outpacing a cold front moving southeastward into the MS Valley. Widespread clouds will limit diurnal heating downstream of this line of storms, but strong moisture advection will still result in at least modest buoyancy and airmass destabilization. At the same time, wind fields will strengthen considerably. This combination of buoyancy and very strong wind shear is forecast to result in a strengthening of the line as it moves into eastern AR and LA during the early afternoon, before then continuing quickly eastward across MS and AL during the evening and overnight. The kinematic fields, especially in the low-levels around 850 to 700 mb, are forecast to be very intense. Mean wind speeds from the HREF show a corridor of 70 kt at 850 mb from central LA into southeast AR at 18Z. Deep-layer mean winds are forecast to be 65+ kt across much of LA, MS, and AL as the line moves through. Expectation is that these robust wind fields will result in an intense convective line capable of widespread wind damage. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes are also likely within this environment, including the potential for strong tornadoes (EF2+). Fast storm motion could result in longer-track QLCS tornadoes than are typically observed. In addition to the strong wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes, discrete supercells ahead of and/or south of the primary convective line are also possible. Any discrete storm that is able to mature and deepen would likely become an intense supercell capable of producing severe wind gusts and strong tornadoes. However, the forcing for ascent and fast-moving character of the shortwave (as well as the convective line) do not favor a discrete convective mode, and the current expectation is for the linear mode to dominate.

Ah yes, a nice cold and crisp 23 degrees at 525am on March 29th lol

So you need to continue going during the playoffs then

Afternoon LWX AFD seems to like the threat LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very dynamic system associated with a strong nearly negatively tilted upper level trough will impact our region on Thursday. A strong cold front associated with the trough axis is forecast to pass through our region Thursday afternoon and into the evening periods. Ahead of the frontal passage, strong warm air advection will lead to temps in the mid 70s with models forecasting CAPE values potentially over 800 J/KG. Most model guidance is also indicating a strong wind field especially with nearly 70s knots between the 850 and 700 mb layer. Strong speed shear along with CAPE around 1000 J/Kg will likely lead to an increased risk for strong to severe storms on Thursday. SPC has been highlighting areas east of the Blue Ridge Mtns for the past two days with a 15% slight risk in their day 4/5 outlook which they only reserve for enhanced threats. Looking at model precipitation, it seems there will be two threats for storms on Thursday, one associated with the strong low level jet ahead of the front and then also when the boundary moves through our region. We will need to monitor model trends to determine timing and magnitude of the SVR threat for Thursday.

06z GFS soundings are quite decent... ML lapse rates are 6.5C/KM to 7.0C/KM at 21z THUR

@Kmlwx Early Step 4 alert?

SPC has outlooked the majority of the region for severe on Thursday (Day 5)

Uh oh Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes. On Wednesday, an increasingly moist air mass is expected across the region ahead of an upper-level trough that will take on an increasingly negative tilt, with very strong deep-layer/low-level winds coincident with a modestly unstable air mass. The potential for extensive early day precipitation/cloud cover ahead of the cold front casts some uncertainty in terms of destabilization details, particularly with northward extent into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Regardless, the extremely strong wind fields are concerning for the potential for long-lived supercells/fast-moving bowing segments where modest destabilization does occur. The most-concerning severe-favorable ingredients currently appear most probable across sizable portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

00z GFS soundings for 18z THUR to 00z FRI look decent

LWX AFD from this afternoon mentioned the threat By late Thursday, a strong cold front will approach the area and may introduce some heavy showers and even thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday. 40-50 knot bulk shear coupled with 200-300 MUCAPE values are being observed for this system in some of the guidance. This, coupled with >60 meter 500 hPa 12 hour height falls have triggered a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday. Main hazard for the event looks to be damaging winds along with isolated large hail. Main locations of interest where instability parameters look more favorable would be south of I-66 in central VA. SPC has a D6 15% outlook for severe weather, the first of its kind across portions of the area. Behind the cold front Friday morning, colder/dry airmass will build in for a brief period.

Graupel and rain and snow shower here now

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Southwest into the southern Plains on D4/Tuesday, before then trending towards a more negative tilt while moving through the Lower/Mid MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley on D5/Wednesday. This shortwave is then forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will support updraft organization and the potential for all severe hazards. The severe weather threat will continue into the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday. Buoyancy will be weaker here than farther west on D4/Tuesday, but both low- and mid-level flow will be very strong. Current guidance suggests mid-level flow within the now negatively tilted trough will exceed 100 kt at 500 mb. A large area of 60-65 kt 850 mb winds is expected. This will result in large, looping hodographs that support organized severe thunderstorms. Convective mode will have a large influence on the dominant severe type, but a discrete mode would result in the potential for long-lived supercells. Even if the mode is more linear (which appears most likely at this point), the strong wind fields support the potential for numerous severe gusts as well as embedded QLCS circulations. The shortwave will likely lose some definition by D6/Thursday but remain strong enough to support thunderstorms as it interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant environment across the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields are expected to support organized severe thunderstorms across portions of central VA and central NC. Variability (both run to run and between models) increases after D6/Thursday, limiting forecast confidence and predictability on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. ..Mosier.. 03/26/2022

Southern part of LWX CWA down by EZF outlooked by SPC for Day 6 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Southwest into the southern Plains on D4/Tuesday, before then trending towards a more negative tilt while moving through the Lower/Mid MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley on D5/Wednesday. This shortwave is then forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will support updraft organization and the potential for all severe hazards. The severe weather threat will continue into the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday. Buoyancy will be weaker here than farther west on D4/Tuesday, but both low- and mid-level flow will be very strong. Current guidance suggests mid-level flow within the now negatively tilted trough will exceed 100 kt at 500 mb. A large area of 60-65 kt 850 mb winds is expected. This will result in large, looping hodographs that support organized severe thunderstorms. Convective mode will have a large influence on the dominant severe type, but a discrete mode would result in the potential for long-lived supercells. Even if the mode is more linear (which appears most likely at this point), the strong wind fields support the potential for numerous severe gusts as well as embedded QLCS circulations. The shortwave will likely lose some definition by D6/Thursday but remain strong enough to support thunderstorms as it interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant environment across the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields are expected to support organized severe thunderstorms across portions of central VA and central NC. Variability (both run to run and between models) increases after D6/Thursday, limiting forecast confidence and predictability on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. ..Mosier.. 03/26/2022

Decent storm here at work... had to close the yard due to lightning rules XD

@high risk Any chance for some severe tonight into tomorrow? I see MRGL risk nearby... maybe some WF fun late tonight?

00z GFS early April blizzard FTW

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 655 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Williamson County in south central Texas... Northwestern Lee County in south central Texas... * Until 715 PM CDT. * At 655 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles east of Coupland, or 8 miles northeast of Elgin, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Tanglewood, Knobb Springs and Blue.

18z GFS is ugly temp wise for the weekend... heavy upslope snow out west in the Allegheny Front and highs around 50 on Saturday for most and 40s for highs on Sunday across the region Don't know if growing season has started yet, but frost/freeze concerns Monday morning... highs in the 45-50 too... yuck

70/50 tor probs https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0054.html