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yoda

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  1. yoda
    20/5 tor probs, 90/20 wind probs on the watch
  2. yoda
    Watch info includes "widespread damaging wind gusts to 70mph likely" URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 87 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Western and Central Maryland Southern New York Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and spread across the watch area. The strongest cells and lines will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two.
  3. yoda
    Latest SWS from AKQ says radar indicated rotation still
  4. yoda
    Two TWs just issued by RAH
  5. yoda
    STW on it now
  6. yoda
    I'm on my lunch break at work and instead of eating lunch I'm refreshing kamala waiting for my MCD lol
  7. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today from parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and Hudson Valley. ...VA into NY... Broad and strong southwesterly flow aloft is present today across much of the eastern US, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper OH Valley. Breaks in the clouds are resulting in pockets of heating across this area, which should yield at least marginal afternoon CAPE values. Storms have begun to strengthen along a pre-frontal axis over western PA. Model consensus shows multiple corridors of strengthening low-level winds through the day, which will help to enhance convergence and lead to more widespread intensifying thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. These fast-moving storms will pose a risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Have added an ENH risk area for this threat.
  8. yoda
  9. yoda
    30% wind contour added in ENH risk region
  10. yoda
  11. yoda
    SPC has gone ENH from N VA into PA on 1630z OTLK
  12. yoda
    Plus with PBZ issuing it's 3rd TW in the past 20 minutes... I'm just guessing they would go TOR... but who knows
  13. yoda
    True... I was going by last paragraph Mesoscale Discussion 0376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Areas affected...Western/central Pennsylvania into western Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311607Z - 311730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible early this afternoon as storm develop in western Pennsylvania/Maryland. Storm intensity is expected to increase later this afternoon into central/eastern Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of Maryland. Trends will continue to be monitored for a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has continued to clear across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania as mid-level dry air overspreads the area. Though MLCAPE values remain below 300 J/kg, surface heating has brought temperatures in southwestern Pennsylvania into the upper 60s F. Low-level lapse rates are likely steepened enough to support a risk for damaging wind gusts given 50-60 kts of wind within the lowest 2 km on regional VAD winds. Into central Pennsylvania, more time will be require to destabilize as cloud cover has kept temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F. However, with the decreasing cloud cover expected, an increasing severe risk will probably occur by mid-afternoon. Southerly winds should advect increasing moisture into the area as well. Limited buoyancy and veered surface winds in western Pennsylvania will limit the tornado risk with early activity. Surface winds will remain more backed in central/eastern Pennsylvania along with greater 850 mb wind speeds. The greater tornado threat is likely to exist farther east and later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 03/31/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
  14. yoda
    Sounds like maybe a tornado watch coming later for N MD into C PA per MCD
  15. yoda
    Can see some breaks of sunshine here
  16. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1157 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Jefferson County in west central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Clarion County in west central Pennsylvania... * Until 1245 PM EDT. * At 1156 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles north of New Bethlehem to 12 miles west of Punxsutawney to 8 miles west of Indiana, moving northeast at 70 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Trees snapped and uprooted. Power outages. * Locations impacted include... Punxsutawney, Brookville, Reynoldsville, Brockway, New Bethlehem, Sykesville, Falls Creek, Rural Valley, West Lebanon, Big Run, Dayton, and Summerville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms likely are producing very strong wind gusts. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4120 7877 4113 7880 4081 7881 4054 7940 4087 7928 4115 7936 4138 7897 4136 7896 4126 7874 4123 7874 4123 7871 4120 7871 TIME...MOT...LOC 1556Z 236DEG 60KT 4112 7927 4091 7922 4065 7931 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  17. yoda
    I'd imagine we will see an MCD for our region in the next hour or so from SPC
  18. yoda
    Storm moving NE at 60 mph ETA: now east motion
  19. yoda
    Wait there's a blizzard on the GFS again? Lol
  20. yoda
    AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1020 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make another brief return early next week before unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The focus of the near term will be on the potential for severe thunderstorms with the primary threat being damaging winds and the potential for an isolated tornado and large hail. The main uncertainty for this event will be how much instability is realized, and if it is rooted within the boundary layer. 12Z CAMs continue to show an upward trend in potential instability this afternoon/evening along and east of I-81. If this instability comes to fruition, given the ample shear in place and height falls along the trough/cold front, strong to severe thunderstorms could be more widespread in nature. The LLJ will be pumping Gulf Moisture into the area at 55-70 kts at 850 mb and 40-60 kts at 925 mb. There is the potential for cellular storms ahead/along the cold front before they congeal into a linear feature that may include the potential for mesovorticies along the leading edge. Again, this all depends on if modeled instability is realized. Previous discussion follows...
  21. yoda
    Ah okay, makes sense... though probably means the US will be making it out of the group as the runners up IMO
  22. yoda
    LCLs were basically in the 500s... so yes lol
  23. yoda
    Agreed. Not exactly sure what is meant by pots as described here... but US and Mexico are in Pot 2 and Canada is in Pot 4. Groups will be announced tomorrow at noon https://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup/story/4628652/world-cup-finals-draw-pots-and-seedings-confirmed-for-fridays-ceremony
  24. yoda
    Interesting re bolded .Southeastern CONUS to Hudson Valley region... The earliest threat area is ongoing -- across portions of the FL Panhandle, southern GA and northwestern FL. See SPC tornado watch 85 and related mesoscale discussions for details on the near-term threats with this activity. A broad plume of low-level theta-e advection will combine with muted diurnal heating to at least marginally destabilize the boundary layer today, in a broad swath from the Carolinas into the northern Mid-Atlantic. This will support additional bands of scattered to numerous showers, and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms, expected to develop from the southern Piedmont to the central Appalachians and move quickly northeastward across the outlook area today. A mixed mode of QLCS (bows, LEWPs and embedded mesovortices) and a few supercells are possible, supporting a threat for damaging gusts (a few severe at 50+ kt intensity) and a few tornadoes. With weakly unstable lapse rates, preconvective dewpoints reaching the mid 50s north to mid 50s south will be counterbalanced by somewhat colder air aloft in the mid-Atlantic, warmer over the Carolinas to Delmarva. The 12Z IAD sounding sampled a likely narrow ribbon of a remnant of the southern Plains EML, within a broader area of weak 600-800-mb lapse rates. Peak warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 100-500 J/kg range over the Mid-Atlantic and 500-1000 J/kg over the Carolinas, and 1000-1500 J/kg in southeastern GA and northern FL. As noted above, the strongest mid/upper winds will be over the middle parts of the outlook area today, while a 60-75-kt LLJ takes shape from the Carolinas into the eastern Mid-Atlantic. This will foster effective-shear magnitudes peaking around 60-75 kt in the NC/VA/MD region, decreasing but still strong northward and southward. Meanwhile, lengthy hodographs will support effective SRH in the 200-400 J/kg range over much of the corridor. Strongest forcing for ascent should be ahead of the front in the northern parts of the area where buoyancy is weakest, in a strong-shear/ low-CAPE scenario. Uncertainty remains as to coverage of severe gusts reaching the surface given some constraints on low-level lapse rates, but even subsevere winds will be capable of minor structural damage and trees down. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/31/2022
  25. yoda
    5% tor added on 1300z OTLK
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