yoda

I just hope the northern stream vort doesn't pull a visit to the Pacific like it did on the 6z and gobble up an h5 low that was out there

So... see you at 18z?

You will get a few hours of light snow and like it good sir (thats what it shows)

06z EURO at 90 would appear to be a bit further north than its 00z run would be... esp with the cold press in the OV

Besides 06z GFS being boring as hell, I do find it kind of funny that h5 at 150 a strong s/w is cruising into the West and then is like, oh wait, that little h5 cutoff low way SW of me looks tasteh... let me go SW for a bite... and proceeds to absorb that h5 and become some giant h5 low that has 5 closed contours (see 180) and finally kicks itself out at 204 like nothing happened...

Morning AFD from LWX about the threat: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At the start of the long term period, a broad, positively tilted longwave trough will reside across central and western portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a strong subtropical ridge will be centered over the western Atlantic. This will result in a broad fetch of southwesterly flow aloft across the eastern half of the CONUS. At the surface, very strong Canadian high pressure (well over 1040 hPa) will descend from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest. At the same time, a broad area of high pressure will be situated over the eastern Atlantic. A very strong baroclinic zone will develop along the interface between the cold, dry northerlies ahead of the Canadian high and the warm, moist southerlies on the backside of the oceanic high. On Wednesday this boundary will be oriented from Texas toward the Great Lakes. This boundary will gradually sag southeastward through the remainder of the week as the strong area of Canadian high pressure builds into the Northern Plains. At upper levels, a strong southwest to northeast oriented jet will develop in response to the strong temperature gradient along the frontal boundary. There is a broad consensus among deterministic and ensemble solutions that these larger scale features will be in place come Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, but a fair amount of uncertainty remains with respect to the exact positioning of these features over time, and the resultant finer scale details of the weather forecast locally (especially as we move into Thursday night and Friday). We'll reside on the warm side of the aforementioned boundary on Wednesday. Southerly flow will transport warmer temperatures into the area, with forecast highs expected to reach well into the 40s, and possible even the lower 50s. While it will be cloudy, not much in the way of precipitation is expected during the daylight hours. Chances for precipitation will increase Wednesday night into Thursday as the frontal zone approaches from the northwest. One or more disturbances may traverse through the southwesterly flow aloft and act to enhance precipitation within the broader zone of ascent ahead of the approaching trough, but there is considerable spread with respect to these finer scale details. However, models are in agreement that days worth of flow around the oceanic high will act to transport highly anomalous values (around 2-4 sigma, absolute values around 1-1.5 inches) of precipitable water out of the tropics and focus them along/ahead of this frontal boundary. As a result, heavy rainfall may be possible. As rains occur atop snow pack in western portions of the forecast area, localized instances of flooding may be possible. Wintry precipitation may also be possible by Thursday night into Friday as colder air starts to work into the area. However, spread in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance remains high. Very small changes in how relatively minor disturbances work through the strong southwesterly flow aloft could have major impacts on how the forecast evolves, especially with such a strong temperature gradient nearby. By Friday night into Saturday, the longwave trough initially located off to our west will push offshore, driving a strong cold front through the area. Colder and drier conditions are expected in its wake.

00z EPS mean is not enthused as the 18z was for our area

Would be snow until 138 or so... thats when precip exits the area

it unfroze

I have 4 different sites open to see if one went past that hour... none lol

Congrats CHO

I like the h5 bomb off the SW coast at 180 lol

I like the two closed h5 forts lol... one just off the OR coast and the other in AZ

Move that SE another 50 miles

Nice hit from the 00z GGEM

Stop looking at globals. Its over for them See you for the Euro

Ggem looks to also be 2-4 region wide

It is just after 22 years to the day... maybe...

There was no 6-10...it was zero I see my mistake. My fault. Got run times mixed up

GFS would be 3 inches in DC...so GFS and RGEM and NAM all suggest that

I was reading how disappointed people were with the 18z run for next weekend

18z wasn't too bad. 6 to 10 was good lol

2 to 4 for most on 00z RGEM

I will take that lol

Go on...