yoda

Wednesday evening maybe?

If only the 00z NAM sounding at 21z SAT would come true lol... would be good enough for damaging winds... maybe some hail and isolated weak spinup. 06z NAM continues it... but decreases the low level shear and suggests more of a damaging wind threat

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models continue to depict likelihood for a multi-day -- and potentially widespread -- severe weather episode across the south-central and southeastern U.S. through the first part of next week. Deterministic global models, as well as both GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means, are in good agreement with pattern evolution through Day 6 and into Day 7, lending confidence to the evolving scenario. Day 4/Sunday, a digging upper trough will shift across the western U.S., with a closed low expected to evolve over New Mexico vicinity overnight. Low-level moisture will be returning into the southern Plains at this point, but in an incomplete manner, and thus any risk for severe weather late Sunday night/Monday morning should remain rather low, and likely confined primarily to hail with elevated overnight storms. By Day 5/Monday, as the upper low moves northeastward across New Mexico toward the High Plains, a surface low is forecast to evolve over western Texas, and move toward western Oklahoma. As this occurs, continued advection of high theta-e Gulf air into roughly the eastern half of Texas will occur ahead of an advancing cold front. As the airmass diurnally destabilizes, an increase in storm coverage an intensity is expected. With very strong southwesterly/south-southwesterly flow aloft, atop south-southeasterlies at low levels, deep-layer shear will favor supercells, along with sufficient low-level shear to support potential for tornadoes -- a few possibly strong. Large hail and damaging winds are also expected. As the upper system makes only slow eastward progress Day 6/Tuesday, another day of severe weather is expected, displaced somewhat to the east as the surface front progresses. Continued influx of Gulf moisture into the warm sector will permit ample CAPE to develop, while strong low-level and deep-layer shear will again be present across the warm sector. This will again favor an all-hazards severe event, including tornado potential, that will continue through the evening and into the overnight period.

BDCF's ftw

@mappy That map is

As in 850s or the column lol

Luckily this is happening tomorrow... if it was Sunday that extra hour of daylight would screw us

Probably going to wait for the rest of the 12z suite

Could see them push it towards HGR

06z GFS still nice.. 2-4/3-5

Snow may be heavy at times has been put in the zones... including DC metro

Morning AFD from LWX says WWA's may be coming soon for metros .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper-level trough and its associated strong cold front will approach the Appalachians through this evening. The southern stream system will begin to phase with the northern stream system, causing the trough to become more neutrally tilted while surface low pressure develops and strengthens along the front. Much of this evening may turn out dry, but rain will quickly overspread late tonight into early Saturday morning in response the cold front and its associated low pressure approaching the area. The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon (teens and single digits along the ridge tops). The potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is expected to end as a period of snow for most areas. Latest guidance has shifted slightly east with the track of the surface low, hence allowing the cold air to spill in quicker. With this scenario, confidence increases for accumulating snow across most locations Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Confidence is still highest over the Mountains and west of Interstate 95, but having that been said there is increasing confidence for snow accumulation along and east of Interstate 95 as well. Typically, it is difficult to get a rain changing to snow setup east of the mountains on a northwest flow in the low-levels, especially for this time of year. However, reasons for increasing confidence in this occurring are that there is Arctic air being drawn into this system behind the cold front. Also, there is stronger Fgen forcing in the 850-700mb layer behind the cold front, and there are coupling jet streaks in the upper-levels (right entrance of northern stream and left exit of southern stream). The strong dynamics suggest that a period of moderate to perhaps heavy precipitation will add to the cooling from a dynamical standpoint while the Artic air is rushing in. For these reasons, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning in the Allegheny Highlands and northern VA Blue Ridge Mountains with advisories elsewhere late Friday night into Saturday. For locations farther east (the Washington/Baltimore Metro areas), they certainly may need to be added to the advisory. However, with a slightly later start time, thinking was to re-assess with the latest information later this morning or afternoon. For along/west of the Allegheny Front, there may be a break when the synoptic snow ends around midday Saturday, but additional snow showers are expected, and some may be heavy due to an unstable atmosphere, deep boundary layer that has moisture, and temps in the DGZ. Near blizzard conditions are possible. Confidence was too low for a Blizzard Warning at this time, since it may be more localized. Strong winds are expected behind the cold front Saturday morning through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are likely across much of the area during this time. Wind headlines will likely be needed during this time. Dangerously low wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees are possible along the ridges later Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero are most likely west of the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits and teens elsewhere.

WSW and WWA's coming from LWX shortly

06z HRRR smokes the region (4-8 for most)... WSW criteria even into the snow depth maps 13z SAT to 17z SAT is the money time period... at 15z SAT tries for 0.2" QPF at DCA in one hour lol KDCA sounding at 12z SAT is heavy wet snow... QPF ends by around 19z. 06z HRRR shows around 0.6" QPF in the 6 hour time period between 12z and 18z for DCA

2mT would disagree for all of us and no fresh cold air

You dare incur the wrath of @mappy? Good luck sir

00z Ukie wasn't as great as 12z... but still 1-3/2-4 for most

Lol 00z GEFS mean is 3 to 4 inches in DC Snow depth is 1 to 3 on the mean

I'm not expecting much... but it would be nice to end the season seeing a few hours of snow TV. Coveting the grass would be nice, but I know thats not likely

Morning AFD from LWX on the threat on Saturday The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday afternoon (teens and single digits along the ridge tops). The potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is likely to end as a period of snow for most areas. There is still some uncertainty as to how much precipitation will be left by the time the cold air arrives, but it does appear increasingly likely that there will be accumulating snow in the farther northern and western suburbs of Washington/Baltimore toward the Allegheny Highlands. The farther west you go, the higher the confidence is and that`s because the cold air will arrive sooner, and those areas are in a more favorable location given the synoptics (left exit of upper-level jet and just northwest of the 850mb lows track). A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, where several inches of snow are possible. Additional advisories may be needed farther east. For Washington/Baltimore, there is still a chance for accumulating snow, but confidence decreases a bit. Will continue to monitor closely, because any slight change in the track of the low or timing of the cold air will have a significant impact on the potential for wintry precipitation. Another element to the snow for locations along/west of the Allegheny Front will be upslope Saturday afternoon and evening. With very cold air along with the potent upper-level trough, there is a deep saturated mixing layer with temperatures in the DGZ layer. This combined with some instability suggests that heavier burst of snow showers are likely behind the low Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Given the strong winds, very cold air, and potential for heavier bursts of snow, blizzard conditions are possible along the ridge tops. Strong winds are expected behind the cold front later Saturday morning/afternoon through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are likely across much of the area during this time. Some higher gusts around 60 mph cannot be ruled out, especially in the ridges. Wind headlines will likely be needed during this time. Dangerously low wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees are possible along the ridges later Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero are most likely west of the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits and teens elsewhere.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 336 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-101645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.220312T0800Z-220313T0600Z/ Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 336 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible. Northwest winds around 40 to 55 mph are most likely, with the strongest winds Saturday afternoon and evenining. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From late Friday night through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The combination of snow and blowing snow may reduce visibility to around a quarter mile or less at times, especially Saturday afternoon and evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this

Early morning tornado looks to have gone right through Mobile, AL... PDS warnings were out for a large tornado OTG and had a TDS for a few scans