yoda

Report of 1.8 inches in Round Hill

Yay snow lol URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 932 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 MDZ001-501-VAZ503-507-508-WVZ501-503-505-190000- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0025.220418T0900Z-220419T0000Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- 932 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Garrett and extreme western Allegany counties in Maryland, western portions of Grant, Mineral and Pendleton counties in West Virginia, western Highland County and the northern and central Blue Ridge in Virginia. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most snow accumulation will be above 2000 feet and will be mostly confined to unpaved surfaces, though some slush on roads is likely.

The new MCD I think explains why -- at least down in MS and LA https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0482.html Mesoscale Discussion 0482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Areas affected...portions of central/northern LA into southern/central MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 123... Valid 132036Z - 132200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 123 continues. SUMMARY...Convection is slowly increasing in coverage and intensity. Should semi-discrete cells ahead of the cold front become better organized, the tornado threat will increase over the next 1-3 hours. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase across northern/central LA this afternoon. An additional band of convection is also noted along a weak low-level confluence band from near HEZ in MS to BTR in LA. Moderate instability resides across the region where upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints are in place. Convection has still been struggling to organized, despite effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt and sufficient large-scale ascent. Of note in visible satellite loops is that while storm motion is toward the northeast, the anvils attached to stronger storms have been spreading east or even southeast. This is consistent with forecast hodographs showing backed midlevel winds, and as a result, some cooling within (from anvil shadow), and precipitation into storm inflow, may be occurring, ultimately causing issues for storm organization. With time, RAP forecast hodographs across parts of northern LA into central MS improve and would allow convection to become better organized and updrafts to remain sustained over a longer time period within the favorable thermodynamic environment. If this occurs, any discrete convection would see an increase in tornado potential, with perhaps a strong tornado or two occurring over the next 1-3 hours. Otherwise, convection further west should consolidate near the cold front into early evening with an attendant risk for damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes. ..Leitman.. 04/13/2022

@nj2va is the most pleased

Afternoon extended AFD from LWX is... lovely Conditions may potentially turn active again on Monday as a complex storm system approaches the area. A weak disturbance in the southern stream, may potentially phase with a much more potent trough approaching within northwesterly flow in the northern stream and form a coastal low. There`s a fair amount of spread with with respect to how this interaction will occur, and what our ultimate forecast will look like, but at this point it`s safe to say that there will be at least some chance for rain across the area late Sunday night through Monday. Precipitation may even linger into Tuesday, depending on how things unfold. Temperatures should run well below normal, and some snow may even be able to mix in with the rain in the mountains. We`ll continue to monitor the forecast for this system as we move closer in time.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas The Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of storms in Arkansas will continue to spread eastward toward northern Mississippi and western Tennessee through the afternoon/evening, with isolated supercell development possible ahead of the ongoing Arkansas storms. A mix of clusters/line segments and supercells support all severe hazards, including the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, corridors of damaging winds to 75 mph, and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Dyersburg TN to 50 miles southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

5 to 6 foot drifts as well

I have that bookmarked Doesn't LWX though only count the 5 min obs? Or something like that... at least I thought that's how it went

Developing storm out towards W MD near the Cumberland area

Says it was 83 at 2pm per the hourly weather obs 87 at CHO though 85 at RIC

Slight taste of summer today... now if we could only get an evening storm to go with it

Tornado Watch coming shortly Mesoscale Discussion 0476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131732Z - 131930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Rapid destabilization is expected across portions of the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley DISCUSSION...A stable airmass is currently in place across the lower Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley in the wake of a morning MCV. However, low-level moisture is expected to improve significantly over the next several hours. The leading edge of richer Gulf moisture can now be seen on visible satellite where the cu field is expanding north across Mississippi and western Alabama. Extrapolating northward movement of this better moisture and northeastward movement of ongoing thunderstorm activities, it appears better low-level moisture will arrive prior to the convective line east of the Mississippi River and possibly slightly west. Expect this better moisture to reach the Missouri bootheel around 19-20Z, southern Illinois 20-21Z and southern Indiana around 22Z. MLCAPE is expected to increase to the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range ahead of these storms which should be sufficiently unstable to not only support a significant severe weather threat with the squall line, but also potentially allow for some more discrete convection to develop ahead of the line. In addition, surface winds are expected to back across the warm sector as the upper-level trough advances northeastward. Therefore, significant elongation of the low-level hodographs is anticipated. Therefore, all severe weather hazards are expected this afternoon/evening including the potential for 75+ mph wind gusts and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LZK...

BWI was 82 at 1pm obs

For a few severe wind gusts

Tornado Watch up for S IL into SE MO

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours.

Sounds like SPC was tossing the HIGH risk around reading the 1300z SPC OTLK Guyer/Smith co-wrote the 1300z SPC OTLK FWIW

Nice morning for a long doggie walk

ENH risk now just in TX including DFW metro... SLGT risk in OK

Per 1300z OTLK from SPC: Mod risk added to N IA... 45% hatched hail added and 45% hatched wind added to W into N IA 15% tor probs added as well in IA

Maybe sneaky severe storm on Wednesday too? Morning AFD from LWX A warm front will return back north on Wednesday. Therefore, WAA will increase once again. If the warm front moves north of the region as indicated by most guidance, sun could aid in bringing temperatures towards the 80 degree mark east of I-81, with a few locations a degree or two higher. Rain chances on Wednesday are highest along the Mason-Dixon line closer to where a shortwave trough will pass through. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm across the far northwest given the forecast instability, though uncertainty remains if the instability will be surface based or elevated. Should greater instability be realized, some rotating updrafts aren`t out of the question given what appears to be supportive deep layer shear, but even then, am not sure that there would be enough CAPE for severe storms. Conditions should stabilize as diurnal heating is lost Wednesday evening into the overnight, with many locations drying out. Thursday will feature a potent cold front passing through the area into the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures Thursday will be highly sensitive to the timing of the cold front passage. Current guidance suggests a later cold front passage, resulting in warm southerly flow ahead of the cold front bringing temperatures to near 80 degrees again east of the mountains. The dynamics associated with the cold front will yield the next opportunity for rain showers and thunderstorms. This is another HSLC set up, with 50-60 kt bulk shear and mean CAPE less than 300 J/kg. A few ensemble members continue to bring CAPE values significantly higher near the metros late Thursday, but confidence is low at this time if the instability would be rooted within the boundary layer. Will maintain the potential for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening, some of which could be strong or even severe.

Thread soon?

MRGL for Thursday from SPC