yoda

True... just with the 50% of 2 or more tor probs on the watch I was thinking maybe. Granted watch probs don't translate to SPC OTLK probs, but would be interesting to see

Rare 10% tor probs on 13z SPC OTLK?

I know this is nothing like April 27 2011 at all.... but I was intrigued in seeing what the tor probs were on our tornado watches that day... the first was 40/20, second was 40/20... the third one was 40/20... and the final one was also 40/20. So... i don't think we have seen a 50 prob for 2 or more tornadoes in our region... unless someone says otherwise?

Nice call

50/20 tor probs are pretty beefy for a early morning tornado watch...

Already TW up down by Martinsville, storm moving NE... should be entering LWX CWA in about an hour

Tornado Watch issued till 2pm

@Eskimo Joe discussed this last night briefly @Kmlwx are you mehing now?

Making itself known... LWX describing the QLCS lol in their morning disco re threats today .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... Surface low pressure is churning just west of the Ohio Valley early this morning, showing up nicely on IR/WV satellite imagery. Extending eastward from the low is a cold front sliding south southwest into the lower Mississippi Valley with a warm front bisecting West Virginia and Virginia from west to east. This synoptic setup allows for the Gulf to be open for business in terms of moisture transport northward across the Southeast and the Mid- Atlantic. Surface dewpoints locally are in the low to middle 60s this morning, right on pace with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Skies are cloudy with a light southeast wind across much of the CWA. Precipitation so far this morning has been relegated west of the spine of the Blue Ridge Mountains, with scattered showers tracking northward. The remainder of the morning will feature increasing rain chances from west to east as the aforementioned warm front lifts northward and the surface low/front pushes eastward from the Ohio Valley. With the plentiful moisture in place thanks to the increasing southerly flow and low level jet, allowing precipitation to overspread the area. With the ample cloud cover in place and limited instability this morning, heavy rainfall appears to the primary concern the first half of the day as this activity pushes across the area. PWATs will range in the 1.5-1.75 range per latest model guidance this morning and early afternoon, pooling along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Given the anomalously moist airmass in place, the approaching cutoff upper low and PVA, as well as favorable MBE velocities, do see the potential for flash flooding this morning and early afternoon with the first round of convective showers/thunderstorms. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches, locally higher, will be possible in a short amount of time within the strongest activity, yielding flooding concerns. As such, we have issued a Flash Flood Watch for a good portion of our CWA, starting this morning across our southwestern zones, extending north and eastward including the metro areas closer to midday and lingering into this evening. With the increasing low level jet this morning, strong to severe storms will be possible, even if instability is a bit limited with cloud cover and prior shower activity. Increasing wind shear and low LCL's also provide a favorable environment to produce a tornado threat as well, particularly in any discrete cell structures that are able to form. Damaging wind gust do appear to be the primary threat given the wind field aloft, with the potential for isolated large hail as well. In the wake of this first round of showers/storms through mid afternoon, a secondary line of activity is expected to be focused along the front, making itself known during the late afternoon and evening hours as it crosses the region. A more organized QLCS structure is favored along the front, and is highlighted by the most recent hi-res guidance filtering in this morning. Damaging wind gusts again will be the primary threat with this feature, but an embedded spin-up cannot be ruled out. With the multi-threats on the table today, be sure to closely monitor the latest trends in the forecast, as well as having a way to receive warnings throughout the day and evening hours as the Memorial Day weekend travel kicks off.

5/5/15 on new Day 1 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for wind damage and possibly a couple tornadoes are expected to develop today from the Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the northern High Plains. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/New York/New England... An upper-level low will move east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the system, flow will be southwesterly at mid-levels across much to the Eastern U.S. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop to the east of the Appalachian crest today, as moisture advection takes place to the east of the trough. Surface dewpoints should be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F from the eastern Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Elevated storms or bands of rain may be ongoing at the start of the period along some sections of the Eastern Seaboard. Areas that remain somewhat clear of morning convection, should be able to heat up sufficiently for moderate destabilization. The latest model forecasts develop two corridors of moderate instability by midday. The first is forecast in eastern Virginia and Maryland, with the second located from southeast Georgia to central North Carolina. These two corridors will likely be favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts associated with multicell line segments. Supercells will also be possible, mainly from north-central North Carolina northward into southeastern Pennsylvania, where strong deep-layer shear will be present. A low-level jet of approximately 35 to 45 knots is forecast to move across Virginia during the day. This should increase low-level shear enough for a tornado threat with any supercells that can develop. The tornado threat could extend north-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic near the axis of the stronger low-level flow.

From the 00z NAM NEST at 19z just SW of DCA

00z HRRR seems a bit more ominous IMO, though it has numerous rounds of storms... one around 17z, another at 23z, then finally one flnal sweep at 01z/02z. The 23z ones look supercells that come up from the south 00z NAM NEST leans in the direction of the HRRR IMO

00z NAM has two rounds (both severe?)... one around 19z and another around 03z

Anyone else psyched to watch the new Star Wars series Obi-Wan?

Are we talking about like in 3 to 6 hours or like after sunrise but before noon? Anyway, MCD said they should weaken soon with loss of diurnal heating

Good disco by LWX this afternoon re the severe and flooding threat .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday will be an active day -- but not without caveats -- as a cold/occluded front and upper level low approach from the west. Expect two main foci (but not necessarily limited to) for shower/storm development: the first will be along the slowly eastward advancing low level jet/lead wave, and the second closer to the actual front and forcing from the main trough axis. Low level clouds may have difficulty clearing ahead of wave one, but models indicate the moisture rich airmass and diurnal heating could result in moderate instability near and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains by afternoon (this being a potential question mark). Ongoing convection will likely see some increase in intensity as it moves eastward. Even though instability and lapse rates may be lacking, sufficient deep layer shear ahead of the trough will be sufficient to result in storm organization. Damaging winds will be the primary threat due to the wind fields and potential for congealing into clusters, but some hail is also possible. Low level shear magnitude and low LCLs will also be sufficient for a tornado threat, although the mesoscale environment could potentially be messy. Forecast soundings are also indicative of a heavy rain threat with saturated profiles, precipitable water greater than 1.5 inches, deep warm cloud layers, and low MBE velocities with storm mergers and relatively slow eastward propagation possible. Compounding the threat will be the potential for multiple waves of storms. If the storm mode is too disorganized and widespread, it`s possible heavy rain and flash flooding will be the greater threat compared to severe storms. It`s a bit uncertain how much instability the second round of storms will have to work with, as it is not expected until late afternoon in the mountains and evening (should it hold together) east I-81. These storms have a conditional threat to be severe if the atmosphere can recover as shear will still be in place.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... Although mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain generally poor, rich low-level moisture characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of the cold front. Even modest diurnal heating should contribute to MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, with somewhat greater instability forecast from parts of MD/VA southward into the Carolinas. Enhanced low/mid-level south-southwesterly flow associated with the upper low is expected to be in place from the Carolinas northward over much of the eastern Mid-Atlantic states ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear of 35-50+ kt will easily support thunderstorm organization, with a mix of multicells and supercells possible. Thunderstorms that will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning should gradually increase in coverage and intensity along/ahead of the front from late Friday morning through the afternoon. With a large southerly component to the low/mid-level winds, convection should tend to grow upscale with time into small bowing clusters as individual updrafts interact with each other. It appears that scattered damaging winds will probably be the main threat as thunderstorms spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and early evening given the messy and mainly multicellular mode. But, enough low-level shear should also be present in association with a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet to support a risk for a few tornadoes with any embedded supercells, particularly from central NC into VA/MD/DE, southeastern PA, and NJ Friday afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. The northern extent of the appreciable severe in NY and the Northeast will be heavily dependent on diurnal heating, the degree of which remains highly uncertain.

5% tor definitely was moved westward some on the 1730z SPC day 2 update... with DC metro now more in the middle

5/5/15 on day 2 morning OTLK from SPC

Haven't seen the phrase "violent thunderstorms" in an AFD from LWX in a while SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The stalled front to our south will begin creeping north as a warm front on Thursday. Early morning low clouds and drizzle may also slide north across southern Maryland and Tidal Potomac and farther into parts of the metro areas Thursday morning. As the day progresses, we should less and less of low clouds and drizzle as daytime heating should mix this out. The warm front will continue to march north during the day Thursday. Winds will become more southerly and increase both at the surface and a few thousand feet above the ground Thursday afternoon. With this increase in southerly winds comes an increase in low level moisture; thus, PWATs could rise quickly from 1.25 to near 2 inches from early Thursday morning through late Thursday evening. This moisture and increase in wind could set the stage for an increased threat for violent thunderstorms and possible flooding Friday into Friday night. The instability will increase through the day on Thursday with the added sunshine and warmth. Temperatures on Thursday will trend upwards with highs expected to reach the middle to upper 70s. A leeside trough of low pressure nearly in sync with a warm front pushing north of our region could be the zone in which showers and a rumble of thunder form Thursday night and mainly across the western zones. Showers and thunderstorms, some on the strong to severe side, could develop over the western zones Friday mid-morning and carrying eastward Friday afternoon with addition development into Friday evening. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding, while the more intense thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening could produce damaging winds and large hail. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday with dewpoint temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 60s.

Anyone else catch the error in that discussion? Didn't know EF-10 was weak lol

12z GFS was

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 439 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 VAZ025-036>038-508-240445- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0004.220524T0300Z-220524T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Wintergreen, Staunton, Stanardsville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Waynesboro, and Stuarts Draft 439 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia and western Virginia, including the following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In western Virginia, Augusta. * WHEN...From 11 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Moderate to heavy rain is expected to overspread the Central Shenandoah Valley late this evening through midday Tuesday. One to three inches of rain are likely with locally higher amounts possible. This could potentially lead to instances of flooding of small streams and creeks. - Please visit http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood for safety information.