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yoda

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  1. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... North central Culpeper County in northern Virginia... * Until 330 PM EDT. * At 247 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of Sperryville, or 14 miles north of Culpeper, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Warrenton, Bealeton, New Baltimore, Opal, Washington, Viewtown, Hackleys Crossroads, Amissville, Jeffersonton, Orlean, Turnbull, Five Forks, Rock Mills and Airlie.
  2. yoda
    Small, but decent hail core near Stauton that just got STW
  3. yoda
    Cellular activity going up pretty fast last 15 mins around i81 corridor
  4. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Southern and Central New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and further increase, initially near/just east of the mountains through mid/late afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward and eventually reach near-coastal areas by evening. Damaging winds are likely to be the most common hazard with some hail possible as well.
  5. yoda
    Severe Tstorm Watch till 9pm for all in LWX CWA (except Alleghany and Garrett counties in W MD)
  6. yoda
    Can someone clarify for me regarding this part in the MCD? " The 12Z IAD RAOB showed 0-6km shear around 37 knots with at least some increasing mid-level flow forecast this afternoon. Therefore, shear should be sufficient for storm organization including the potential for some rotating updrafts. However, scattered to numerous storms are anticipated in the uncapped atmosphere this afternoon which could lead to colliding storms and a more clustered storm mode. " Now when they state rotating updrafts, that means cellular activity with potential for severe hail, correct? Especially since they state in the next sentence about colliding storms?
  7. yoda
    Well played good sir
  8. yoda
    Kinda wondering where our MCD is lol
  9. yoda
    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 500 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0129 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 N CROWNSVILLE 39.03N 76.59W 06/02/2022 ANNE ARUNDEL MD 911 CALL CENTER TWO TREES BLEW DOWN INTO HOUSES. NUMEROUS OTHER TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN BETWEEN CROWNSVILLE AND HAROLD HARBOR. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2203648
  10. yoda
    Morning AFD from LWX has an intriguing statement Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will cross the area tonight and bring some severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. High pressure returns shortly thereafter heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cdfnt extends southwest from a low pressure center over northeast Ohio. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area from late this morning through mid evening. Given strong instability and moderately strong mid- level flow, thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds. Main severe threat looks to be from 11 AM until 8 PM. Could see a SVR TSTM Watch issued as early as 10AM. Given mid- level flow perpendicular to sfc front, storms should be fairly progressive with storm motions around 30kt. Despite the fast flow, very localized flooding can`t be completely ruled out over the highly urbanized areas of DC to Baltimore given possibility of intense, but brief, rainfall rates. Convection should start winding down around 8PM and exit the entire area by midnight tonight.
  11. yoda
    00z NAM and 00z NAM NEST look pretty good to me sim radar wise
  12. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX suggests maybe some late night storms north of DC metro as well As we head into the overnight hours, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over western and central PA will try to push southeastward into western and central Maryland and parts of northern West Virginia. This activity, despite being in the middle of the night, could be on the strong side. Gusty winds and hail possible with this activity. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A strong cold front dropping southeastward out of the Lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley will slide across our region on Thursday and pass through the region Thursday night. Morning showers and thunderstorms may fizzle some and become more isolated and weaker. However, as daytime heating evolves and the front comes closer to the mid-Atlantic region, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of and along the cold front. The more persistent and heaviest thunderstorm activity should be from mid-afternoon through mid- evening, such as 2pm to 8pm. There could be two rounds of intense showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. One would be near or east of US 15 to the Chesapeake Bay and the second would be over the western mountains that would eventually propagate eastward during the course of the early evening hours. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. A close second in terms of threats would be flooding rains due to training thunderstorms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out later Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should exit the area by midnight Thursday night with high pressure building in Friday and Friday night. The high pressure will lead to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures just in time for the weekend.
  13. yoda
    DCA: 102 IAD: 100 BWI: 101 RIC: 102
  14. yoda
    Afternoon discussion from LWX about our next chance of severe on Thursday LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong cold front will dive southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes, across the eastern Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic region Thursday into Thursday night. A large amount of instability expected ahead of the front. Mid and upper level energy will be joined by a strong jet aloft to set the stage for potential strong or damaging thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. SPC currently has the eastern three-quarters of our region in a 15% threat for severe weather. There are timing issues once again as to when the strongest thunderstorms develop and move through the region. The GFS is 12 to 18 hours faster than both the NAM and EURO deterministic models. The GFS has the main event from mid-morning through late afternoon Thursday. The NAM and EURO have it mid- afternoon through about midnight. Nonetheless, whichever model you believe, the instability ahead of the front and the lift from the surface front, mid-level energy and jet aloft could cause for an active Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a couple degrees above average, reaching the middle 80s with humid conditions.
  15. yoda
    Is this our first one of the year? Or did I miss one already from earlier this year? Also high probs across the board on everything
  16. yoda
    PDS maybe? Since the "higher end" wording? Mesoscale Discussion 0980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Areas affected...extreme eastern SD into southern/central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301906Z - 302030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for strong tornadoes and widespread intense gusts is increasing across extreme eastern South Dakota into southern/central MN. A tornado watch will be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A surface warm front over southern MN will continue to lift northward through the afternoon. Dewpoints will increase into the mid/upper 60s as this occurs, resulting in rapid destabilization with northward extent over the next few hours. Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasing/vertically developing cumulus across portions of southern MN to the south of the warm front. A recent RAOB near Tyler, MN indicated weakening surface-based and MLCIN with very steep midlevel lapse rates in place. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will support organized supercells, while strong forcing may tend to favor bowing segments, and a mixed convective mode is possible. Enlarged low-level hodographs evident in regional RAOBs/VWPs and forecast soundings show 30-40 kt 0-1 km shear amid enhanced low-level vorticity. This will support intense rotation with any discrete or line-embedded supercells, and a couple of significant tornadoes will be possible into early evening. Hi-res operational CAMs guidance and the experiment Warn-on-Forecast ensemble has been persistent in developing at least a couple of discrete supercells ahead of linear convection. While convective evolution/storm mode remains somewhat unclear, the overall parameter space will support storms capable of producing strong tornadoes and widespread intense (greater than 75 mph) outflow winds. A higher-end tornado watch will likely be needed within the hour. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR
  17. yoda
    My gripe with Obi-Wan is this: How did he not know Darth Vader was Anakin and that he was alive? When the 4th sister told him "He hasn't forgotten you! That's right, Anakin is alive..." it's like, um, is Obi-Wan that cut off from the Force that he didn't know? You see Obi-Wan struggling with the Force when he reaches out to save Leia when she is falling... so I guess that's its possible? And you see Darth Vader basically "come alive" in his bacta tank when he feels Obi-Wan's presence... so did he not know Obi-Wan was alive either? But the 4th sister as above, said that he hasn't forgotten about you... so... i dunno then? Did Yoda know before Obi-Wan went to Tattooine with Luke and didn't tell him?
  18. yoda
    Yikes Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service North Platte NE 929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 NEC071-089-300300- /O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220530T0300Z/ Garfield NE-Holt NE- 929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES... At 929 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 13 miles northeast of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 16 miles north of Burwell, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and grapefruit size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Carson Lake. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4193 9917 4204 9923 4207 9922 4208 9921 4219 9900 4194 9884 TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 247DEG 26KT 4202 9911 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...4.50 IN
  19. yoda
    21/10/6
  20. yoda
    Seems next threat for severe will be on Thursday of next week per afternoon LWX AFD
  21. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 837 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... West central Calvert County in southern Maryland... Southeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Eastern Charles County in southern Maryland... * Until 900 PM EDT. * At 836 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Golden Beach, or near Hallowing Point, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Prince Frederick, Golden Beach, Huntingtown, Hughesville, Aquasco, Benedict and Eagle Harbor. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
  22. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 830 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Calvert County in southern Maryland... Southeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Northeastern Charles County in southern Maryland... * Until 900 PM EDT. * At 830 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Golden Beach, or 7 miles west of Hallowing Point, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Dunkirk around 855 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lower Marlboro, Eagle Harbor, Aquasco, Hughesville, Bryantown, Huntingtown and Baden. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
  23. yoda
    Um, so you issue a SWS saying confirmed TOG over Dalghren at 806pm for TW in King George... and then 811pm issue another SWS saying that the warning will expire at 815 instead of reissuing?
  24. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 800 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Orange County in central Virginia... Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 800 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mineral, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Orange and Spotsylvania Counties, including the following locations... Mine Run, Brokenburg, Parker, Snell, Alsop, Gold Dale, Gatewood, Thornhill, Logan and Glenora. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3801 7771 3803 7773 3802 7775 3805 7775 3805 7777 3808 7779 3808 7781 3811 7784 3810 7784 3812 7791 3812 7798 3814 7800 3814 7803 3833 7772 3822 7740 3801 7768 TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 227DEG 19KT 3800 7793 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  25. yoda
    TOR POSSIBLE added to the STW in NW VA in latest SWS update
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