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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Watch issued... hail to 2" and winds to at least 80mph per the disco
  2. yoda
    STWatch coming shortly for S MI/NE IN/NW OH - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1147.html Mesoscale Discussion 1147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southern Lower Michigan...northern Indiana...and northwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 132149Z - 132345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts will be the main concern, and a watch will likely be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...As a large cluster of storms with a history of large hail and damaging winds continues tracking east-southeastward over southern Lake Michigan toward Lower Michigan, lower 70s dewpoints and filtered diurnal heating downstream should continue to destabilize surface-based inflow for this convective cluster. At the same time, the GRR VWP shows 60-70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, which should further aid in convective organization with east-southeastward extent. While convective evolution remains somewhat unclear owing to generally weak large-scale ascent, the downstream environment could support significant gusts if efficient upscale growth can aid in forward propagation and established rear-inflow jets. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued shortly for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
  3. yoda
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  5. yoda
    FWIW, ENH was nudged E and SE a tad on the 2000z SPC OTLK into SW PA and N and NW WV
  6. yoda
    SPC went MOD risk... mentions intense bow echo and derecho potential in 20z disco ...20Z Update... Portions of the Ohio Valley have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk for the anticipation of a highly organized MCS/possible Derecho developing from a supercell structure across southern WI. Despite the lack of agreement in high-resolution guidance, this supercell is traversing a strong buoyancy gradient (with extreme MLCAPE values exceeding 5000 J/kg noted in the OH Valley). In addition, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear are also present along the buoyancy gradient, which expands across a long west-east corridor over northern portions of the OH Valley. Expectations are for this supercell (which already shows an intense RFD surge per latest KMKX radar data) to eventually become more outflow dominant, generating a strong cold pool preceded by the extreme instability. Upscale growth with the cold pool would support an expanding MCS traversing a CAPE/shear parameter space typically associated with bow echoes/derechoes. In addition, multicells continue to percolate across central IN amid an extremely unstable environment (i.e. 5000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 18Z mesoanalysis) and an appreciable severe wind threat could develop with this cluster as well should upscale growth occur.
  7. yoda
    LWX's thoughts in their afternoon AFD... and they think winds will likely overcome any weakening .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Uncertainty continues to linger with respect to late tonight and early Tuesday morning with a potential MCS and how far south it will be able to make it by Tuesday morning. Timing and position of the activity off to the NW will dictate potential impacts for the area. If there is a more southern track as seen in some of the CAMs, then most of the more intense wind/rain would likely miss most of the area. Whereas, if a northern solution is realized there will likely be a more widespread/impactful situation to portions of the area. The latter solution may experience lesser instability as it heads into the NW area. Do think that regardless of how strong the reflectivity field looks, winds will likely overcome any weakening. Guidance has been honing in on a vort track likely through the middle of the CWA later Tuesday morning. Timing wise, the complex system may begin to enter portions of the NW areas by 6z and may not reach the SE areas until 15z. Better MLCAPE will likely be situated along and west of I-81 with better potential for any training/isolated flooding threat in the southwest areas. Most likely hazards will be damaging winds and large hail. This system has the conditional possibility of producing widespread wind damage over a large area, should these showers and storms start to bow out more as they approach the NW areas. The circulation associated with the MCS may also keep some very heavy rain over an area for an extended period of time, thus leading to a conditional flooding threat. Also with the low-level wind field being perpendicular to the mean flow, an isolated quick spinup is possible. One thing that could potentially impact the timing and intensity of the environment could be any potential showers/t-storms ahead of the complex later today and into the early overnight hours.
  8. yoda
    17z HRRR at the end of its run looked interesting to me... 18z looks decent
  9. yoda
    Zoomed in look for next Wednesday
  10. yoda
    Tuesday of next week at 18z temps per 12z Euro zoomed in
  11. yoda
    Luckily its a dry heat lol. Sounding at DCA at 18z WED at 222 hours says it's 102/53
  12. yoda
    SLGT risk on the afternoon OTLK was yanked a good 100 to 200 miles to the NW compared to the morning OTLK for the Day 2
  13. yoda
    Hmmm from the new Day 2 OTLK at 1730z Central Appalachians/Mid Atlantic/Carolina Piedmont... A cluster(s) of thunderstorms, potentially in the form of an organized MCS, may be underway across the central Appalachians at the start of the period. Regardless of early storm mode, the manifestation of Day 1 convection will be embedded in the modest mid-level flow (along with 20-30 kts of deep-layer shear) while progressing southeast into a diurnally heated, destabilizing airmass. 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the ongoing storms. In addition, a mixing boundary-layer will also support efficient cold pool production should a more substantial MCS materialize, with damaging gusts a concern. A Category 2/Slight Risk has been maintained across portions of the Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas. Should confidence increase in a more organized, sustained MCS becoming established in the morning hours upstream of the aforementioned buoyancy, a Category 3/Enhanced risk may be needed. Also, some CAM guidance hints at considerable southwestward propagation of MCS convection into SC and a southwestward expansion of the Slight Risk is also possible in future Day 1 Outlooks.
  14. yoda
    Tornado Warning NE Albemarle County
  15. yoda
    Not sure if posted... but 12z FV3 Hi-Res was a nice hit across the region from 10z to 13z... 18z RGEM FWIW looked like a DC-BWI metro hit from 12z to 15z... 18z HRRR was faster, coming into the region around 05z out west, but then hanging around (backbuilding?) until 13z
  16. yoda
    18z GFS suggests the complex comes through a little later... around 15z TUE... smacks the metro region
  17. yoda
    Guess LWX has more confidence since they updated the language in the most recent HWO for Monday night into Tuesday into the bolded .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Scattered severe storms with damaging winds and large hail are possible late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible during this time. There is a threat of at least isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail at times Tuesday afternoon through Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed, so spotters should stay tuned to forecast updates through the upcoming week.
  18. yoda
    15% wind in north-western LWX CWA (i81 corridor and to the north and west)... hatched wind is pointing in our direction
  19. yoda
    Anyone else waiting for the new Day 2 OTLK? Lol
  20. yoda
  21. yoda
    12z HRRR at super long range aka end of its run is a direct hit with the MCS... pretty impressive UD Helicity swath as well for that far out
  22. yoda
    12z NAM drops MCS through SE PA and NE MD at 45-51 hours out... but what is that at 45 and 48 hours on its western flank?
  23. yoda
    I've moved on to the MCS threat Monday night into Tuesday morning... and um... the 00z NAM and 06z NAM are very concerning
  24. yoda
    2/5/5 on new DAY 2 OTKLK... but disco is interesting ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Neutral to rising mid-level heights are forecast over much of the Midwest into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic as an upper ridge builds slowly eastward, and as an upper trough lifts northward into New England and Quebec. There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with where/if robust thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon. A surface front draped from northern IL/IN into OH/PA may serve as a focus for possible convective initiation. Eastern portions of the Midwest into the OH Valley may have a slightly better chance for thunderstorms, as a low-level temperature inversion/cap should be weaker with eastward extent across these regions. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place along/south of the front Sunday afternoon, as rich low-level moisture characterized by mid/upper 60s to low/mid 70s surface dewpoints will be present. A belt of enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow should also be in place on the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Given the degree of deep-layer shear forecast, any thunderstorms that develop could become supercellular and pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Although low-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, it may be sufficient for modest low-level rotation and a brief tornado or two. Have opted to expand the Marginal Risk across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic since there is still large spread among model guidance with placement and coverage of convection Sunday afternoon/evening. If a more focused corridor of severe potential becomes evident, then greater severe probabilities would be needed given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment.
  25. yoda
    00z HRRR would be entertaining
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