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yoda

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  1. yoda
    That sup has more of a S component on it now compared to an hour ago
  2. yoda
    Probably wont be much... but watching the storms in WV
  3. yoda
    I'd watch that new storm just east of Standardsville that is STWarned...
  4. yoda
    Not sure I am following this twitter exchange... can I get some help?
  5. yoda
    This was from an hour ago... don't see this everyday BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 637 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... Southwestern Orange County in central Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 634 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Orange, moving southeast at 15 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Somerset, Orange and Montpellier Station. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. * Locations impacted include... Orange, Gordonsville, Thornhill, Madison Mills, Montford, Lahore, Old Somerset, Montpelier Station, Madison Run and Somerset. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3814 7801 3814 7805 3815 7809 3815 7810 3814 7812 3814 7816 3813 7818 3818 7829 3831 7821 3820 7786 3812 7796 3812 7798 TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 301DEG 13KT 3821 7818 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  6. yoda
    Was warned earlier with destructive wording in its STW
  7. yoda
    Its still up on the NWS LWX website though
  8. yoda
    Golf ball sized hail and winds to 70 mph in latest STW BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 512 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... South central Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Western Culpeper County in northern Virginia... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 512 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of Sperryville, or 10 miles northwest of Culpeper, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Culpeper, Castleton, Catalpa, Slate Mills, Brandy Station, Woodville, Winston, Cardova, Reva, Rixeyville, Alanthus, Boston and Five Forks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3854 7828 3866 7820 3854 7784 3836 7800 TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 300DEG 12KT 3855 7817 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  9. yoda
    Storm moving SE into the extreme N WV panhandle has been hailing pretty good and is warned for hail to golf ball size... would be in LWX CWA in an hour or 2
  10. yoda
    I'm watching the storms in OH for later... that should be where our second round will be coming from, right? or the ones in NW PA?
  11. yoda
    The secondary round disco had one sentence lol
  12. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 251 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The northern City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Western Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Southwestern Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 251 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northwest of Winchester, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Martinsburg, Inwood, Brucetown, Glengary, Gerrardstown, Gainesboro, Cedar Grove, Clear Brook, Ridgeway, Bunker Hill, Stephenson, Wadesville, Cross Junction, Arden, Cedar Hill, Albin, Gore, Whitacre and Greenwood.
  13. yoda
    (from afternoon LWX AFD for the weekend) Canadian high pressure will move into the region Saturday with below normal temperatures and dry conditions. Saturday night is likely the chilliest night in some time for areas west of US-15, with lows in the 40s to near 50. Would not be surprised with patchy frost in the valleys of Garrett County, Maryland Saturday night.
  14. yoda
    Then the middle of next week has my interest too... also from LWX afternoon AFD but in the extended section @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe By Tuesday into Wednesday, ridging aloft will start to build in from the west. We`ll remain on the frontside of the ridge both days, placing us in northwesterly flow aloft. Heat and humidity will start to build in from the west, with highs approaching 90 by Tuesday, and then well into the 90s on Wednesday. The return of the heat and humidity will bring along with it chances for showers and thunderstorms as disturbances descend down the frontside of the ridge in northwesterly flow.
  15. yoda
    Re today for severe threat from LWX afternoon AFD update... i'm intrigued by the 2nd period of interest Regarding the severe weather potential today, there are two periods of interest. The first is from late this afternoon into this evening along a lee pressure trough. Hi-res guidance has trended toward a more robust environment this afternoon from I-81 east with sfc CAPE of 2000 J/kg+ and deep layer shear of 35-45 kts. This area is colocated with the pressure trough and terrain circulations. Should any storm form in this area/environment, it could quickly become severe posing a damaging wind and large hail threat. These storms would also likely be efficient rain producers due to the anomalously moist airmass, though storms should remain progressive to some extent. The second period of interest is late this evening into the early parts of tonight. A cold front will be positioned across the southern Great Lakes. Storms will develop along the Lake Erie lake breeze and progress southeast. Uncertainty arises with the areal extent of the storms in part due to the warm air aloft since these storms will not be on the actual cold front. Several scenarios exist, with bowing segments possibly extending into the local region. Areas near the bay may have more of a stable airmass by the time the storms arrive, but will continue to monitor.
  16. yoda
    Tornado Watch for all of PA/NY just issued right down to the M/D line... in effect until 11pm
  17. yoda
    Waiting for our MCD soon
  18. yoda
    Mid 80s at DCA/IAD at 2pm with DPs near 70... with southerly winds bringing in a decent breeze
  19. yoda
    The storm in CTP's CWA (S PA) that is severe warned does have the TORNADO POSSIBLE tag on it FWIW
  20. yoda
    Should move eastward a bit as we continue to have heating IMO
  21. yoda

    Winter 2022-23

    yoda replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    I know this is more SNE-centric... but they really do have great disco in here about upcoming winter... really good discussion about everything and a really good read
  22. yoda
    1630z disco ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... An active severe-weather day is expected across the region, with essentially all convective modes/hazards possible. Steady large-scale height falls, along with a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies, will occur via the approach of the upstream trough over Ontario. Upstream regional 12z soundings/upper-air data sampled 50+ kt mid-level winds early this morning over Lower Michigan into Illinois (and likely Indiana). A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is in place across the Northeast, where daytime highs well into the 80s F and dewpoints near 70F will yield MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg with little capping inversion. General thinking remains that thunderstorms will form this afternoon along an approaching cold front, initially from western/northern New York into northwest Pennsylvania into eastern/central Ohio, with additional development possible within the warm sector in vicinity of the mountains and/or lee trough. Low-level winds are not forecast to be particularly strong, but favorable deep-layer shear and degree of instability suggest that discrete supercells will be possible, capable of very large hail and possibly a few tornadoes. This activity will spread east/southeastward during the afternoon/evening especially across the Enhanced Risk area that includes much of New York and Pennsylvania. Upscale growth into short bowing segments can be expected as storms spread toward additional parts of the Mid-Atlantic this evening, although a more stable air mass will likely persist for coastal areas.
  23. yoda
    Yup re SLGT risk... moved south a tad along i95 coprridor and now includes all of W VA
  24. yoda
    I could see the SLGT risk being moved south another 50-100 miles or so on the 1630z OTLK... down the i81 corridor towards CHO... ENH risk maybe just a tad nudge south too
  25. yoda
    For all you youngins
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