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yoda

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  1. yoda
    12z NAM NEST goes nuts from DC metro to BWI metro from 00z to 06z
  2. yoda
    Saw this on twitter... so thought I'd share
  3. yoda
    Updated morning AFD from LWX .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cluster of storms continues to move across far northeast MD. Given recent radar imagery and trends upstream, main threat is for a brief period of soaking rain. The 12Z RAOB from IAD had a PW of just under 2.0" indicating an anomalously moist airmass. Issued a heat advisory for portions of the eastern panhandle of WV, western MD, and northern Shenandoah Valley. A similar setup as yesterday should result in criteria being met for several hours this afternoon (heat indices of 100-104 degrees). The anomalously high dew points as of mid-morning in the mid 70s have already resulted in heat index values in the mid 90s in this area. If outdoors today, stay hydrated and practice heat safety. See weather.gov/heat for more info. Regarding the severe weather potential today, there are two periods of interest. The first is from late this afternoon into this evening along a lee pressure trough. High res guidance has trended in a more robust environment this afternoon from US-15 east with sfc CAPE of 2000 J/kg+ and deep layer shear of 35-45 kts. Should any storm form in this area/environment, it could quickly become severe posing a damaging wind and large hail threat. These storms would also likely be efficient rain producers due to the anomalously moist airmass, though storms should remain progressive to some extent. The second period of interest is late this evening into the early parts of tonight. A cold front will be positioned across the southern Great Lakes. Storms will develop along the Lake Erie lake breeze and progress southeast. Uncertainty arises with the areal extent of the storms in part due to the warm air aloft since these storms will not be on the actual cold front. Will continue to monitor this potential as storms approach the region from Pennsylvania. Additionally, the timing of this approaching convective activity may be after peak heating.
  4. yoda
    Well that's not a super helpful 12z IAD sounding per SPC site... anybody have a better one? Says everything is M except for a few things
  5. yoda
    Clearing here with nice sun
  6. yoda
    13z SPC OTLK now includes all of N VA north of around EZF and includes BWI/DC metro in SLGT risk... 2/15/15 5% TOR now includes C and W MD and E WV into extreme NW VA
  7. yoda
    Those are some ridiculous soundings once again on the 18z NAM for 21z THUR to 03z FRI (but particularly 00z FRI aka Thursday night at 8pm)
  8. yoda
    Seems like our next chance for severe storms is tomorrow night per the afternoon LWX AFD
  9. yoda
    Ji hasn't canceled winter yet?
  10. yoda
    So... Wednesday maybe? Lol Or maybe Thursday?
  11. yoda
    Very disappointing after watching earlier this evening into the night
  12. yoda
    Day 2 10 percent hatched tor in most of C WI into UP of MI
  13. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The western Maryland Panhandle Extreme southeast Ohio Southwestern Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday morning from 1245 AM until 600 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-developed squall line with bowing characteristics will likely persist for a few more hours in a zone north of prior convection across West Virginia. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail may also occur for the strongest embedded updrafts.
  14. yoda
  15. yoda
    11pm OBS across the region has DPs in the 72-76 range for most stations across VA/DC/MD
  16. yoda
    weee BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1104 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Putnam County in west central Ohio... South central Paulding County in west central Ohio... Van Wert County in west central Ohio... West central Allen County in west central Ohio... * Until 1145 PM EDT. * At 1104 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Convoy, or near Van Wert, moving southeast at 35 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM!. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Van Wert, Delphos, Convoy, Ottoville, Ohio City, Middlebury, Middle Point, Fort Jennings, Scott, Venedocia, Elgin, Wetzel, Tipton, Cavett, Dull and Jonestown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm has produced widespread wind damage across Allen county Indiana with 100 mph winds reported at the Fort Wayne airport at 1040 pm EDT. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! &&
  17. yoda
    STWatch issued for much of Ohio until 3 am with 80/60 wind probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 361 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central, northern and east central Ohio * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1000 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms will continue to move quickly east-southeastward across Ohio through the early overnight hours. The environment is favorable for swaths of damaging winds up to 75 mph, and the strongest embedded storms could also produce isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. An isolated tornado or two may occur with embedded circulations.
  18. yoda
    @Weather Will posted it in the disco thread instead of in here lol
  19. yoda
    Tasty
  20. yoda
    Again, while we wait and watch BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 827 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Southeastern Prince William County in northern Virginia... The northeastern City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 915 PM EDT. * At 826 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Centreville, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, Dale City, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Burke, Chantilly, Montclair, Lorton, Newington, Manassas, Manassas Park, Fairfax Station, Independent Hill, Mason Neck, Occoquan and Clifton.
  21. yoda
    Dont see this often in MI either Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 740 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 MIC159-140015- /O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-220614T0015Z/ Van Buren MI- 740 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN VAN BUREN COUNTY... At 739 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southeast of Hartford, or 11 miles southwest of Paw Paw, moving southeast at 50 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR DECATUR. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Hartford... Decatur... Keeler... Lawrence... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.
  22. yoda
    While we wait BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 631 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Montgomery County in central Maryland... South central Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 631 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Poolesville, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Lansdowne, Poolesville, Boyds, Belmont, Barnesville, Dickerson, Beallsville, Tuscarora and Lucketts.
  23. yoda
    Tornado Watch for SE WI and NE IL coming w/in the hour -- pretty much the CHI metro -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1148.html Mesoscale Discussion 1148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Northeast Illinois...southeast Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 132238Z - 140045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in a very unstable and highly sheared environment. A tornado watch will likely be needed to address this concern. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a warm frontal boundary across northern IL within the past hour. The downstream environment remains highly unstable per latest RAP mesoanalysis (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), and VWP observations from KLOT show around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. These observations support latest 6+ STP estimates that were recently analyzed in recent data. While the propensity for discrete convection is unclear due to storm motions along the surface boundary and several updrafts in close proximity, the environment is supportive of a tornado threat. A tornado watch is likely in the next hour to address this concern. ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...
  24. yoda
    80/70 wind probs
  25. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 356 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms over southern Lake Michigan will likely maintain intensity and could grow upscale into a bowing cluster over the next few hours while moving into southwest Lower Michigan, and eventually northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. These storms will have the potential to produce swaths of significant severe outflow gusts of at least 80 mph, along with large hail of 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter. A secondary threat will be the potential for an isolated tornado or two with embedded circulations.
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