yoda

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A potent upper-level trough will dig from the Ohio Valley into our area Monday and the cold front associated with this system will pass through our region during the afternoon into the early evening. The wind field will increase significantly, causing moderate to strong shear (deep layer shear most likely around 40-60 knots). The increased shear combined with height falls, strong forcing along the front, and moderate CAPE enhances the threat for severe thunderstorms. Convection out ahead of the front is likely to be moving into the Appalachains Monday morning, and the strong to severe storms will most likely form along the differential heating boundary between that convection and growing instability to the east. This is most likely to setup near the I-81 corridor before storms intensify as they move east. Convection will likely develop into line segments with embedded supercells possible. Therefore, damaging winds and large hail are a concern. However, the surface flow will be backed (especially east of Interstate 81), so there is a tornado threat as well. Another round of convection is possible along the front, and given the shear profiles with falling heights some of that can be severe as well. However, confidence is much lower for this since the atmosphere may be worked over by widespread convection associated with the first round. There is also an isolated flood/flash flood threat with the convection as well. Faster storm motion suggests that threat will be limited, but FFG is low due to recent rainfall. Also, if bowing segments develop, the southern portion of the bowing segment could be parallel to the cloud layer wind for a period. If this does occur, that could enhance the flood/flash flood threat.

Surprise ENH I see for Day 2... 5/15/30

Who's ready for the first real heat wave next Saturday? Temps at DCA at 18z SAT: 12z Euro: 95 12z GFS: 93 12z CMC: 89

Sounds like we may finally be getting into some good severe chances next week per afternoon LWX AFD LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong cold front is forecast to pass through our region Monday into Tuesday. An accompanying strong upper level trough is forecast to drop southward toward our region from the upper Great Lakes region. Ensembles and deterministic models have the trough going neutral to slightly negatively tilted with the best forcing mainly focused over PA. Strong warm air advection ahead of the frontal passage will likely lead to CAPE values rising above 1000 with decent speed shear of 30 to 40 knots. The potential for shear above 40 knots and CAPE above 1000 as the front passes through our region may lead to an increased threat for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. Based on the fact that shear will be unidirectional, the storm mode could be more QLCS vs cellular. There remains some uncertainty on the timing of the frontal passage and upper trough axis and whether it will occur during peak heating. Behind the frontal passage, high pressure is forecast to build back over our region through Wednesday leading to moderating temperatures and mostly dry conditions. A strong shortwave moving through a near zonal flow may bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region on Thursday. Warm air advection along with potential for some directional shear may lead to another threat for strong storms late Wednesday into Thursday.

No Crosby for Penguins tonight, no Wilson for the Capitals

That's pretty cool though tbh

Just a lil gusty storm BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 616 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Pope County in west central Minnesota... Chippewa County in west central Minnesota... Stevens County in west central Minnesota... Swift County in west central Minnesota... Northwestern Kandiyohi County in central Minnesota... * Until 700 PM CDT. * At 615 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Milbank to 6 miles southwest of Appleton to near Hanley Falls, moving northeast at 85 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR APPLETON AND BENSON. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 608 PM CDT, Madison airport reported a gust of 94 mph. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Granite Falls and Appleton around 620 PM CDT. Maynard and Lake Oliver around 625 PM CDT. Clara City around 630 PM CDT. Hancock and Raymond around 635 PM CDT. Kerkhoven, Chokio and Cyrus around 640 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and west central Minnesota. && LAT...LON 4575 9625 4576 9514 4533 9512 4489 9525 4489 9548 4477 9549 4477 9551 4480 9551 4491 9568 4491 9572 4493 9573 4495 9580 4516 9604 4518 9610 4541 9612 4542 9625 TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 213DEG 74KT 4517 9662 4514 9613 4471 9566 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 616 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Pope County in west central Minnesota... Chippewa County in west central Minnesota... Stevens County in west central Minnesota... Swift County in west central Minnesota... Northwestern Kandiyohi County in central Minnesota... * Until 700 PM CDT. * At 615 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Milbank to 6 miles southwest of Appleton to near Hanley Falls, moving northeast at 85 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR APPLETON AND BENSON. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 608 PM CDT, Madison airport reported a gust of 94 mph. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Granite Falls and Appleton around 620 PM CDT. Maynard and Lake Oliver around 625 PM CDT. Clara City around 630 PM CDT. Hancock and Raymond around 635 PM CDT. Kerkhoven, Chokio and Cyrus around 640 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and west central Minnesota. && LAT...LON 4575 9625 4576 9514 4533 9512 4489 9525 4489 9548 4477 9549 4477 9551 4480 9551 4491 9568 4491 9572 4493 9573 4495 9580 4516 9604 4518 9610 4541 9612 4542 9625 TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 213DEG 74KT 4517 9662 4514 9613 4471 9566 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH

I think the MCD for the watch explained it - here... so I guess that's where the number came from - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0739.html Mesoscale Discussion 0739 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota...far southwest Minnesota...and northwest Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208... Valid 122149Z - 122230Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO "MONTANA" INSTEAD OF "MINNESOTA" The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208 continues. SUMMARY...A very intense squall line will bring likely hurricane force winds across portions of southeast South Dakota into southwest Minnesota this evening. DISCUSSION...A well developed squall line has developed across Nebraska and has already produced multiple wind gusts in the 70 to 90 mph range over the past 1 to 2 hours. This line is moving over 60 knots and is moving into an increasingly favorable environment for severe wind gusts with MLCAPE of 3000 to 4000 J/kg, DCAPE of 1400 J/kg, and effective shear around 50 knots. All signs point toward a swath of high end wind damage across southeast South Dakota and possibly into southwest Minnesota. Widespread velocities of 90 to 100 knots are being sampled around 4000 feet across Yankton and Bon Homme counties as of 4:30 PM. This is the same region where several consecutive runs of the WoFS have shown a swath with ensemble maximum surface winds of 90 to 100 knots. Therefore, widespread 75+ mph winds are likely with some wind gusts approaching 100 mph possible. ..Bentley.. 05/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 519 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0500 PM TSTM WND DMG HURON 44.37N 98.22W 05/12/2022 BEADLE SD TRAINED SPOTTER NUMEROUS PINE TREES HAVE BEEN UPROOTED BY THE WIND. POWER IS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF TOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 529 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0415 PM TSTM WND DMG DANTE 43.04N 98.19W 05/12/2022 CHARLES MIX SD PUBLIC AN 80 FOOT BY 200 FOOT BUILDING HAS ONLY ONE WALL STANDING. A 42 FOOT BY 60 FOOT BUILDING HAS ONLY ONE STANDING WALL REMAINING. NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED. ROOFS OFF BUSINESSES.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 515 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 SDC005-077-097-111-122230- /O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-220512T2230Z/ Kingsbury SD-Sanborn SD-Beadle SD-Miner SD- 515 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR WESTERN KINGSBURY...SANBORN...BEADLE AND WESTERN MINER COUNTIES... At 513 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Hitchcock to 6 miles northwest of Carthage, moving northeast at 65 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR Iraquois, Bancroft, and Yale. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 5 PM CDT, a 90 mph wind gust was reported at the Huron airport. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of western Kingsbury, Sanborn, Beadle and western Miner Counties, including the following locations... Bancroft and Broadland.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning IAC119-MNC081-083-101-105-117-133-SDC011-077-079-097-099-101-122300- /O.NEW.KFSD.SV.W.0081.220512T2213Z-220512T2300Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 513 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Lyon County in northwestern Iowa... Southwestern Lyon County in southwestern Minnesota... Lincoln County in southwestern Minnesota... Northwestern Nobles County in southwestern Minnesota... Rock County in southwestern Minnesota... Western Murray County in southwestern Minnesota... Pipestone County in southwestern Minnesota... Northeastern Miner County in east central South Dakota... Brookings County in east central South Dakota... Moody County in east central South Dakota... Kingsbury County in east central South Dakota... Lake County in east central South Dakota... Eastern Minnehaha County in southeastern South Dakota... * Until 600 PM CDT. * At 512 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Carthage to near Colman to near Larchwood, moving northeast at 85 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR BROOKINGS, PIPESTONE, LAKE WILSON, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Flandreau, Egan and Nunda around 520 PM CDT. Brookings, Garretson, Lake Preston, Sherman and Hetland around 525 PM CDT. Elkton, Aurora, Hardwick, Badger, Ward and Blue Mounds State Park around 530 PM CDT. Edgerton, Lake Benton, White, Leota, Lismore and Trosky around 535 PM CDT. Chandler and Arco around 540 PM CDT. Hendricks, Ivanhoe, Lake Wilson, Holland and Woodstock around 545 PM CDT. Ruthton and Current Lake around 550 PM CDT. Florence around 555 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Kenneth, Ihlen, Flandreau Santee Sioux Tribal Nation, Hadley, Steen, Magnolia, Erwin, Bushnell and Hatfield. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central South Dakota. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread wind damage across southeastern South Dakota and adaject areas of southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central South Dakota.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 458 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 IAC119-MNC133-SDC027-061-067-079-083-087-097-099-101-125-135-122230- /O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-220512T2230Z/ Lyon IA-Rock MN-Miner SD-McCook SD-Yankton SD-Hanson SD- Hutchinson SD-Moody SD-Lake SD-Clay SD-Minnehaha SD-Lincoln SD- Turner SD- 458 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR WESTERN LYON...WESTERN ROCK...MINER...MCCOOK...NORTHEASTERN YANKTON...HANSON...NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON...SOUTHERN MOODY...LAKE... NORTHEASTERN CLAY...MINNEHAHA...LINCOLN AND TURNER COUNTIES... At 458 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles north of Fulton to near Hartford to Worthing, moving east at 85 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR ALEXANDRIA, SIOUX FALLS, COLTON, LENNOX, LARCHWOOD, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. These severe storms will be near... Sioux Falls, Canton, Harrisburg, Tea, Hartford, Crooks, Wall Lake, Worthing, Ellis and Lake Alvin State Recreation Area around 505 PM CDT. Larchwood, Howard and Renner around 510 PM CDT. Brandon, Salem, Lester, Winfred, Corson, Rowena and Palisades State Park around 515 PM CDT. Lake Herman State Park, Valley Springs, Hills, Montrose, Beaver Creek and Orland around 520 PM CDT. Madison, Luverne and Humboldt around 525 PM CDT. Colton, Wentworth and Chester around 530 PM CDT. Colman and Lyons around 535 PM CDT. Baltic, Egan, Trent and Dell Rapids around 540 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Steen. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread wind damage across southeast South Dakota. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 4300 9698 4326 9739 4350 9796 4385 9797 4385 9785 4402 9785 4417 9774 4403 9661 4388 9645 4385 9646 4385 9643 4359 9616 4308 9679 4308 9681 TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 270DEG 74KT 4382 9785 4360 9702 4334 9676 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH

@weatherwiz Check out the PDS STWatch out in the Upper Midwest

@high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe Besides Monday still being discussed as our next chance for severe in the region... what's ridge runner thunderstorms mean? I am guessing like MCS complexes? The aforementioned cold front will pass through the area Monday while while mid-level flow increases significantly in response to an upper-level low diving through southern Canada. This will increase the shear profiles, and potentially increase any storm organization raising the potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. The main question will be the timing of the front. If the front is slower, this will coincide with peak heating and that will elevate the threat for severe storms. However, if the front is faster, then drier air may sneak in before peak heating limiting the severe threat. Will continue to monitor, but confidence remains low at this time. High pressure will build overhead for Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing mainly dry conditions (popup shower cannot be ruled out in the north and northwest Tuesday, but most places will be dry) along with lower humidity. The Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley region will be on the edge of a building upper level ridge across the central portions of the county, with the potential for ridge runner type thunderstorms somewhere in this area.

Looks like next chance is Monday

We will win at home tomorrow in Game 6 with or without Crosby

So you have chosen... poorly

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 194 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Mon May 9 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this afternoon and evening amid a strongly unstable air mass. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including tornadoes and very large hail. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0194.html

There were 2 tornadoes in Eastern Washington on Friday night in the Spokane area https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=OTX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0

NOUS46 KOTX 072210 PNSOTX WAZ036-082215- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Spokane WA 310 PM PDT Sat May 7 2022 ...Two tornadoes touch down in the Spokane area on May 6th... A National Weather Storm Survey combined with eyewitness account and video footage has confirmed two tornadoes on May 6th, 2022 between 700 and 725 PM PDT in the Spokane area. The first tornado touched down three miles northeast of Airway Heights at approximately 703 PM PDT leading to tree and powerline damage in the area. The second tornado touched down in Spokane Valley between Freya and Dishman Hills Recreational area at approximately 720 PM PDT impacting a mobile home park. Several trees were uprooted or downed, with a couple trailers overturned. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=OTX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 439 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 VAZ503-504-WVZ050-055-502-504>506-090445- /O.UPG.KLWX.FR.Y.0005.220509T0600Z-220509T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0006.220509T0600Z-220509T1200Z/ Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Hampshire-Hardy-Eastern Grant- Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Hightown, Monterey, Romney, Moorefield, Petersburg, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 439 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures around 30 to 32 degrees expected. * WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland and Eastern Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Hampshire, Hardy, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Western Pendleton and Eastern Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

There were 2 tornadoes in the Spokane region of Washington Friday night https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.q13fox.com/news/possible-tornado-spotted-in-spokane-photos-show-flipped-trailers-and-downed-trees.amp

lol URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 222 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 MDZ501-502-VAZ025>027-029-503-504-507-508-WVZ050-051-055-501>506- 090230- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0005.220509T0600Z-220509T1200Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Hightown, Monterey, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 222 PM EDT Sun May 8 2022 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.