yoda

Looking at the bracket... Penguins and Capitals won't be able to meet until the Eastern Conference Finals. We'll see who gets there lol

Sounds like a fun night ahead for the region per the afternoon LWX AFD... also never seen thunder mentioned as being disruptive before... is that being said just because it's night time and could wake people up? @high risk @MN Transplant NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of mid afternoon, a warm front was dangling near the VA/NC border, with a few other weak convergence or differential heating zones noted roughly between the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. This setup, combined with a frontal system approaching from the west and south, will result in a likelihood of showers and some thunderstorms for portions of the region through tonight. Central VA and vicinity: A line of towering cumulus was evident in visible satellite imagery along the Allegheny Front, and will likely evolve into a cluster of showers and thunderstorms across west-central Virginia through late afternoon. Any such convection should then track generally eastward to northeastward toward the central Shenandoah Valley and onto the piedmont before weakening as it encounters more stable air in areas that have been shrouded by low clouds much of the day. Given 30 to 40 knots of flow within a few kilometers of the surface, and surface- (or near surface) based CAPE on the order of 1000+ J/kg, a few of these storms could become strong to severe, and capable of gusty to damaging winds and hail. Overall, the threat of severe weather appears to be limited (i.e. marginal/isolated), and mainly focused on this evening. Although forecast soundings indicate a threat for backbuilding, forcing may be too weak and transient and the individual storm motion too quick to allow enough heavy rainfall for flooding, especially given the recent dry conditions in this area. The most likely area/time period for storms is roughly from Shenandoah Mountain to Staunton, Waynesboro, and Charlottesville between 6pm and 10pm, with scattered showers and perhaps a few weaker/elevated thunderstorms likely persisting much of the night given forcing along an approaching warm front. Western MD and vicinity: Areas near and west of the Allegheny Front and north of Petersburg WV will be located closer to stronger forcing from a shortwave trough and associated surface low passing over OH/PA. Similar to areas further south, CAPE likely becomes rooted at or near the surface this evening, eclipsing 1000 J/kg at its peak. Moderate shear is modest low-level curvature to the wind profile could result in transient supercell structures, though the main storm mode will likely be linear bands or clusters with an associated risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, or possibly even an isolated tornado if supercells evolve. Forecast soundings and low-level winds parallel to an approaching cold front attached to the low could result in training convection. HREF probabilities show potential for localized 2+ inches of rainfall, which given somewhat higher soil moisture in this area (relative to further south and east) may result in a few isolated instances of flooding tonight. The greatest risk area appears to be west of the Eastern Continental Divide in Garrett County, closest to the aforementioned trough/low. Timing wise, the threat looks to be focused on the mid to late evening hours (8pm-midnight). East and south of there into eastern West Virginia and western Maryland east of the Allegheny Front, the threat may be more isolated in nature. Elsewhere: Despite a strong near-surface stable layer, forecast soundings indicate 600-1200 J/kg of CAPE aloft (lifting from ~875 mb) late this evening. This, coupled with moderately strong warm/moist advection overtop an approaching warm front could keep storms going well into the overnight. The low-level stability should preclude any gusty winds from reaching the surface, but hail potential may linger. The low-level stable layer/temperature inversion could also amplify the sound of thunder overnight, making it rather disruptive. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible for much of the night, though could end up being more numerous at times given the strength of the approaching warm front; nocturnal convection, however, is notoriously fickle and hard to predict. There will be a fair amount of moisture in the atmosphere, as well, with PWs up to around 1.5" (1-2 SA above normal). That, coupled with moisture flux into the area, could result in some heavy downpours and perhaps an isolated instance or two of nuisance flooding/ponding in urban or poor drainage areas. &&

I think it depends on your PP and goaltending. If Ovie can get a PPG early on in Game 1, I think that will help WSH immensely. Plus, if your goaltending can step up, that will help as well. Florida had the highest goals scored average per game in the regular season (4.11)

12z EURO agrees... says upper 50s to maybe low 60s for most next Friday... 55-60 for most next Saturday as well for highs

Monday's highs 60-65... and then someone ordered the wedge sandwich for next Tuesday on the 12z GFS too

12z GFS for next weekend is quite cool... 55-60 for Friday for BWI into NE MD... near 50 for all Saturday... and near 60 on Sunday

Could be a day 2 mod risk reading Broyles day 3 outlook discussion Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday over the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of west-central Texas and in the western Tennessee Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern and central Plains on Monday, as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move southeastward into northwestern Oklahoma as a cold front advances southeastward into central Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. A dryline will be located from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas with a warm front in eastern Kansas. Low-level moisture advection will increase across the moist sector with surface dewpoints climbing into the lower to mid 60s F from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Moderate instability will develop along this corridor by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate during the late afternoon along the western and northern edge of the stronger instability from west-central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas. A southwest-to-northeast broken line of severe storms, with discrete elements, is expected to organize from central Oklahoma north-northeastward into southeast Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat will likely continue to the late evening and early overnight period as the storms move eastward into the Ozarks. In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, the mid-level jet will created moderate to strong deep-layer shear from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense updrafts. Also, low-level shear will dramatically increase during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet strengthens across northeastern Oklahoma. To the west and northwest of the low-level jet, lift and low-level shear will become very favorable for tornadoes. NAM forecast soundings at 00Z/Tuesday near Perry, Oklahoma have 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 450 m2/s2 with long and looped hodographs. As a result, strong tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells, and a long-track damaging tornado will be possible. Wind damage will also be likely with the downdrafts associated with supercells, and along the leading edge of any short line segments that organize. A severe threat will also be possible during the late afternoon and early evening across southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas and west-central Texas. But any threat for large hail and wind damage should remain isolated there from late afternoon to the mid evening. ..Broyles.. 04/30/2022

PDS TOR warning for Butler and Greenwood counties in KS

And it's 3-0 Penguins already

Guess this is what happens when 21z OUN sounding has ML Lapse Rates at 9 C/KM URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwestern, central and northern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are expected to develop and move away from the dryline over the remainder of the afternoon. Any sustained storm(s) could offer tornadoes (potentially significant/EF2+), very large/damaging hail, and locally severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of Ponca City OK to 35 miles south southeast of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 157...WW 158... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Edwards

Never seen 5 inch hail mentioned in a watch before... TW #159 for majority of Oklahoma says just that

Lol Capitals blown out by the Islanders 5-1. Penguins hold a one point lead over the Capitals for the 3rd division seed still. The Penguins just need to get to OT vs CBJ - or win in any fashion - to clinch the 3rd seed and play the Rangers in the first round. Capitals would play Florida if this were to happen. Penguins would have to lose in regulation to CBJ and the Capitals win in any fashion against the Rangers tomorrow for them to be the 3rd seed and play the Rangers and the Penguins would be relegated to being WC2 and play Florida

I know... just seems like the Capitals are figuring its better for him to just rest up and heal for Game 1

I guess the Capitals are resting Ovie for the playoffs... but they look totally different without him out there playing

So a first round exit you mean

Afternoon AFD suggests next Tuesday may be our first chance at severe again

Yay? URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 MDZ003>005-503-505-VAZ025>031-038>040-050-051-501-502-505-507-508- WVZ051>053-270245- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.220428T0500Z-220428T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page- Warren-Clarke-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 32 possible. * WHERE...Portions of north-central Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and the central and northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Shenandoah Valley and Piedmont. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Looks like it had a really nice hail core too for a while

It looks like it probably is going to come down to tiebreaker between our teams... if we have same number of points it goes to regulation wins and then if still tied, regulation and overtime wins. As of this morning, both teams have 35 regulation wins, so tied there. 2nd tiebreaker Penguins have, 41 to 39 over the Capitals, which is ROW). WSH has vs TOR/vs NYI/@ NYI/@NYR left PIT has @ DET/@ PHI/vs EDM/vs CBJ left Don't forget about Boston either... they also have 99 points but have 1st WC position right now due to one less game played. They play the Rangers today at 3pm. Boston currently has 36 regulation wins... so if WSH and BOS tie at end of season on points, Boston would get #1 WC and WSH would be #2 WC. If WSH and BOS were to tie on points and regulation wins, Boston wins 2nd tiebreaker of ROW 45-39

Lol Sunday mid 80s and then Wednesday upper 50s for highs

Impressive amounts for mid-April Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 602 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 8 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to cooperative and CoCoRaHS observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/baltimore ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL MEASURED (inches) MARYLAND ...Allegany County... Frostburg 6.0 220 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Frostburg 2 ESE 6.0 119 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Ridgeley 1 W 5.0 500 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Ridgeley 1 NW 4.8 235 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cumberland 1 SSE 4.4 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cresaptown SSW 3.6 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter La Vale W 3.0 100 PM 4/18 From MDOT at Lavalle ...Carroll County... Manchester 2 NW T 422 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Thurmont 3 N 3.5 500 PM 4/18 NWS Employee Middletown 1 SSW 0.2 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Garrett County... Warnocks 2 NNW 3.0 115 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Grantsville 5 W 2.0 300 PM 4/18 Dept of Highways Deer Park 6 NE 1.7 600 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Howard County... Marriottsville 2 SSW T 1100 AM 4/18 NWS Employee Scaggsville 1 ENE T 1112 AM 4/18 NWS Employee Columbia T 1055 AM 4/18 NWS Employee ...Montgomery County... Washington Grove 1 N T 1118 AM 4/18 Trained Spotter Laytonsville 2 WNW T 1038 AM 4/18 sleet Damascus 3 SSW T 410 PM 4/18 Co-Op Observer Gaithersburg 1 WNW T 1030 AM 4/18 sleet ...Washington County... Hancock 1 ESE 3.0 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Pecktonville 3 NNW 2.5 310 PM 4/18 NWS Employee Sabillasville 2 NNW 2.0 145 PM 4/18 CoCoRaHS Boonsboro 3 NNE 1.8 400 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Hagerstown 1 ENE 1.2 400 PM 4/18 CoCoRaHS VIRGINIA ...Albemarle County... Monticello 2 NNE T 115 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Augusta County... Fishersville 1 NE 0.5 125 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Fairfax County... Chantilly 2 ENE T 1100 AM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Hayfield 1 NE 3.5 445 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cross Junction 1 WSW 3.1 545 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Hayfield 1 N 2.4 130 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Winchester 4 E 1.0 150 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Stephens City 2 E 0.6 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Highland County... Hightown 3 NW 3.3 1252 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Hightown 3 WNW 2.5 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Monterey 2.5 342 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Loudoun County... Round Hill 1 WNW 2.9 430 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Purcellville 1.6 330 PM 4/18 NWS Employee Hillsboro 3 NW 1.5 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Dulles International T 200 PM 4/18 Airport ...Madison County... Big Meadows 1 SSE 6.0 340 PM 4/18 Park/Forest Srvc ...Page County... Ida 1 SW 4.0 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Honeyville 1 ESE 1.3 230 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Prince William County... Woolsey 1 SW T 1015 AM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Rappahannock County... Chester Gap 5.0 420 PM 4/18 Public Sperryville 2 SE 1.0 1152 AM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Rockingham County... Bridgewater 2 E 2.0 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Dale Enterprise 1 ES 1.0 1200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... Karo 1 WSW 1.9 320 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Riverton 1 WNW 1.8 410 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Linden 3 W 0.3 1220 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter WEST VIRGINIA ...Berkeley County... Bunker Hill SE 3.1 345 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Martinsburg 2 E 3.1 400 PM 4/18 NWS Employee Winebrenners Cross 4 2.5 340 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Grant County... Mount Storm 2 SSW 5.2 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Petersburg 1.0 1138 AM 4/18 Co-Op Observer ...Hardy County... Fisher 3.0 116 PM 4/18 Public ...Jefferson County... Bloomery 3 SSE 4.5 435 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Shepherdstown 2 N 1.5 245 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Millville 1 ESE 1.4 402 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Shepherdstown 1 NW 1.2 301 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Mineral County... New Creek 3 NW 3.6 300 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Burlington E 2.5 245 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Keyser 2.5 1230 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Keyser 2 SSW 2.0 1230 PM 4/18 Co-Op Observer ...Morgan County... Smith Crossroads 1 W 5.4 530 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cherry Run 3.0 300 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Pendleton County... Deer Run 2 WSW 3.0 551 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cherry Grove 6 WSW 2.0 1231 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter

Hmmm... which will it be? Afternoon AFD from LWX... I know which one @nj2va is rooting for Thereafter, longwave ridging is expected to build overhead for Friday into the weekend, as troughing becomes established over the Rockies, as well as over the North Atlantic. This will lead to a prolonged stretch of dry conditions. There is some uncertainty however with respect to temperatures. Some deterministic models and ensemble members try to move a backdoor cold front into the area by later Friday into Saturday. As a result, various ensemble members of the GEFS/EPS show highs on Saturday ranging anywhere from around 50 to near 90. There is still some spread in the temperature forecast for Sunday too, but ensemble members favor warmer solutions as the upper level ridge axis progresses overhead.