yoda

I thought this was mainly for winter stuff... but now it's for severe chances as well now in the HWO? @high risk @Kmlwx @MN Transplant DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is an enhanced severe storm threat late Friday into Saturday. Scattered storms with damaging wind gusts are possible. Strong northwest winds may cause instances of wind damage through Saturday evening. Gale-force winds are possible over the waters Saturday.

Woo showers?

LWX made a quick mention again in their afternoon AFD... mentions instability as only issue right now Meanwhile, a potent low pressure system looks to develop near the Great Lakes, moving into the northeast Saturday along with a strong cold front. The threat of severe weather is worth monitoring with this system moving forward, as SPC mentions the possibility of severe in the Mid-Atlantic in this time frame. As far as ingredients go, CAPE seems to be the limiting factor thus far.

Highly approved by @nj2va

Looks like the supposed line is early? Based off radar at least to me

What do you think about Saturday? Or too far out for right now? LWX had a quick mention in their morning AFD about it

0600Z spc disco Southern Appalachians through northern Mid Atlantic coast... Modest pre-frontal low-level moistening and, perhaps more notably, relatively warm layers aloft are generally forecast to limit warm sector boundary-layer destabilization today through tonight. However, given at least weak conditional instability, mid-level forcing for ascent along/ahead of the eastward advancing cold front will probably be sufficient to maintain or support new developing lines of fairly vigorous convection, particularly across the Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains vicinity into the northern Mid Atlantic coast by this evening. Coinciding with one belt of 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer propagating to the west of the Allegheny Mountains, and another developing to the lee of the Blue Ridge into the northern Mid Atlantic coast by this evening, this convection will contribute to the downward transfer of this momentum toward the surface. It seems probable that this will contribute to at least scattered, if not more widespread, damaging wind gusts.

So... maybe Monday night? From the morning LWX AFD: SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sct-nmrs morning showers expected Sunday in association with a strong low-lvl jet, then turning mainly dry during the afternoon. Temps could possibly reach into the low 80s for the first time this year. Remaining breezy/windy Sunday and Sunday night with low temperatures more typical of early June. Some showers are possible over the mountains and across northern areas. Deepning low pressure center over OH valley will track across the area Monday night bringing widespread showers and risk of thunderstorms late Monday through midnight Monday night. Strong low-level winds may pose a risk of damaging winds across the higher elevations where SPC has indicated a slight risk of severe weather Monday.

You should tweet Ian and ask him about going out west towards the Plains if you are going that far west

@nj2va approves From the SNE forum (h/t @brooklynwx99)

So... you'd be in the SE chasing the tornadoes instead of the snow in the SNE, right?

https://www.nhl.com/news/washington-capitals-carl-hagelin-injury-status/c-331366914

Where is it going to be located? I go to the one on Hilltop Village Center Drive alot

You get 6 to 10 inches from the slider

More confluence up north

So... right where we want it

@nj2va would not be pleased lol

Of course then the Euro tries for low teens in the city and single digits out west next Monday night and has highs for many at or below freezing on Tuesday

I mean if you want to be technical lol... the sounding at DCA at 174 is a heavy wet snow one. It's below freezing all the way down to the last like 50m lol

Looks like just light rain late as storm pulls away... 4 to 6 isolated 8 for most

At least we get some heavy snow for a little bit at 174

Oh so going to a place where they actually get snow and real cold

Sorry, 00z EPS member #18 is the correct choice

Euro is a mess for the CAPE storm

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 116 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 MDZ003>006-008-011-014-505>508-WVZ051>053-181430- /O.UPG.KLWX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220218T1500Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220218T1500Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 116 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph, becoming west to northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph after 3 AM. * WHERE...Portions of north-central and northeast Maryland including the Baltimore Metropolitan area, and the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.