yoda

Graupel and rain and snow shower here now

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Southwest into the southern Plains on D4/Tuesday, before then trending towards a more negative tilt while moving through the Lower/Mid MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley on D5/Wednesday. This shortwave is then forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will support updraft organization and the potential for all severe hazards. The severe weather threat will continue into the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday. Buoyancy will be weaker here than farther west on D4/Tuesday, but both low- and mid-level flow will be very strong. Current guidance suggests mid-level flow within the now negatively tilted trough will exceed 100 kt at 500 mb. A large area of 60-65 kt 850 mb winds is expected. This will result in large, looping hodographs that support organized severe thunderstorms. Convective mode will have a large influence on the dominant severe type, but a discrete mode would result in the potential for long-lived supercells. Even if the mode is more linear (which appears most likely at this point), the strong wind fields support the potential for numerous severe gusts as well as embedded QLCS circulations. The shortwave will likely lose some definition by D6/Thursday but remain strong enough to support thunderstorms as it interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant environment across the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields are expected to support organized severe thunderstorms across portions of central VA and central NC. Variability (both run to run and between models) increases after D6/Thursday, limiting forecast confidence and predictability on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. ..Mosier.. 03/26/2022

Southern part of LWX CWA down by EZF outlooked by SPC for Day 6 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance remains in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move through the Southwest into the southern Plains on D4/Tuesday, before then trending towards a more negative tilt while moving through the Lower/Mid MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley on D5/Wednesday. This shortwave is then forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Thursday. Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will support updraft organization and the potential for all severe hazards. The severe weather threat will continue into the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D5/Wednesday. Buoyancy will be weaker here than farther west on D4/Tuesday, but both low- and mid-level flow will be very strong. Current guidance suggests mid-level flow within the now negatively tilted trough will exceed 100 kt at 500 mb. A large area of 60-65 kt 850 mb winds is expected. This will result in large, looping hodographs that support organized severe thunderstorms. Convective mode will have a large influence on the dominant severe type, but a discrete mode would result in the potential for long-lived supercells. Even if the mode is more linear (which appears most likely at this point), the strong wind fields support the potential for numerous severe gusts as well as embedded QLCS circulations. The shortwave will likely lose some definition by D6/Thursday but remain strong enough to support thunderstorms as it interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant environment across the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields are expected to support organized severe thunderstorms across portions of central VA and central NC. Variability (both run to run and between models) increases after D6/Thursday, limiting forecast confidence and predictability on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. ..Mosier.. 03/26/2022

Decent storm here at work... had to close the yard due to lightning rules XD

@high risk Any chance for some severe tonight into tomorrow? I see MRGL risk nearby... maybe some WF fun late tonight?

00z GFS early April blizzard FTW

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 655 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Williamson County in south central Texas... Northwestern Lee County in south central Texas... * Until 715 PM CDT. * At 655 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles east of Coupland, or 8 miles northeast of Elgin, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Tanglewood, Knobb Springs and Blue.

18z GFS is ugly temp wise for the weekend... heavy upslope snow out west in the Allegheny Front and highs around 50 on Saturday for most and 40s for highs on Sunday across the region Don't know if growing season has started yet, but frost/freeze concerns Monday morning... highs in the 45-50 too... yuck

70/50 tor probs https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0054.html

Wednesday evening maybe?

If only the 00z NAM sounding at 21z SAT would come true lol... would be good enough for damaging winds... maybe some hail and isolated weak spinup. 06z NAM continues it... but decreases the low level shear and suggests more of a damaging wind threat

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models continue to depict likelihood for a multi-day -- and potentially widespread -- severe weather episode across the south-central and southeastern U.S. through the first part of next week. Deterministic global models, as well as both GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means, are in good agreement with pattern evolution through Day 6 and into Day 7, lending confidence to the evolving scenario. Day 4/Sunday, a digging upper trough will shift across the western U.S., with a closed low expected to evolve over New Mexico vicinity overnight. Low-level moisture will be returning into the southern Plains at this point, but in an incomplete manner, and thus any risk for severe weather late Sunday night/Monday morning should remain rather low, and likely confined primarily to hail with elevated overnight storms. By Day 5/Monday, as the upper low moves northeastward across New Mexico toward the High Plains, a surface low is forecast to evolve over western Texas, and move toward western Oklahoma. As this occurs, continued advection of high theta-e Gulf air into roughly the eastern half of Texas will occur ahead of an advancing cold front. As the airmass diurnally destabilizes, an increase in storm coverage an intensity is expected. With very strong southwesterly/south-southwesterly flow aloft, atop south-southeasterlies at low levels, deep-layer shear will favor supercells, along with sufficient low-level shear to support potential for tornadoes -- a few possibly strong. Large hail and damaging winds are also expected. As the upper system makes only slow eastward progress Day 6/Tuesday, another day of severe weather is expected, displaced somewhat to the east as the surface front progresses. Continued influx of Gulf moisture into the warm sector will permit ample CAPE to develop, while strong low-level and deep-layer shear will again be present across the warm sector. This will again favor an all-hazards severe event, including tornado potential, that will continue through the evening and into the overnight period.

BDCF's ftw

@mappy That map is

As in 850s or the column lol

Luckily this is happening tomorrow... if it was Sunday that extra hour of daylight would screw us

Probably going to wait for the rest of the 12z suite

Could see them push it towards HGR

06z GFS still nice.. 2-4/3-5

Snow may be heavy at times has been put in the zones... including DC metro

Morning AFD from LWX says WWA's may be coming soon for metros .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper-level trough and its associated strong cold front will approach the Appalachians through this evening. The southern stream system will begin to phase with the northern stream system, causing the trough to become more neutrally tilted while surface low pressure develops and strengthens along the front. Much of this evening may turn out dry, but rain will quickly overspread late tonight into early Saturday morning in response the cold front and its associated low pressure approaching the area. The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon (teens and single digits along the ridge tops). The potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is expected to end as a period of snow for most areas. Latest guidance has shifted slightly east with the track of the surface low, hence allowing the cold air to spill in quicker. With this scenario, confidence increases for accumulating snow across most locations Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Confidence is still highest over the Mountains and west of Interstate 95, but having that been said there is increasing confidence for snow accumulation along and east of Interstate 95 as well. Typically, it is difficult to get a rain changing to snow setup east of the mountains on a northwest flow in the low-levels, especially for this time of year. However, reasons for increasing confidence in this occurring are that there is Arctic air being drawn into this system behind the cold front. Also, there is stronger Fgen forcing in the 850-700mb layer behind the cold front, and there are coupling jet streaks in the upper-levels (right entrance of northern stream and left exit of southern stream). The strong dynamics suggest that a period of moderate to perhaps heavy precipitation will add to the cooling from a dynamical standpoint while the Artic air is rushing in. For these reasons, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning in the Allegheny Highlands and northern VA Blue Ridge Mountains with advisories elsewhere late Friday night into Saturday. For locations farther east (the Washington/Baltimore Metro areas), they certainly may need to be added to the advisory. However, with a slightly later start time, thinking was to re-assess with the latest information later this morning or afternoon. For along/west of the Allegheny Front, there may be a break when the synoptic snow ends around midday Saturday, but additional snow showers are expected, and some may be heavy due to an unstable atmosphere, deep boundary layer that has moisture, and temps in the DGZ. Near blizzard conditions are possible. Confidence was too low for a Blizzard Warning at this time, since it may be more localized. Strong winds are expected behind the cold front Saturday morning through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are likely across much of the area during this time. Wind headlines will likely be needed during this time. Dangerously low wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees are possible along the ridges later Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero are most likely west of the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits and teens elsewhere.

WSW and WWA's coming from LWX shortly

06z HRRR smokes the region (4-8 for most)... WSW criteria even into the snow depth maps 13z SAT to 17z SAT is the money time period... at 15z SAT tries for 0.2" QPF at DCA in one hour lol KDCA sounding at 12z SAT is heavy wet snow... QPF ends by around 19z. 06z HRRR shows around 0.6" QPF in the 6 hour time period between 12z and 18z for DCA

2mT would disagree for all of us and no fresh cold air