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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Its almost like it breaks up the line into supercells as it enters MD/N VA/DC by 20z
  2. yoda
    Looks like 00z HRRR is trying to develop some discrete activity ahead of the bow echo/line at 18z/19z
  3. yoda
    I am gathering we are watching the area where SPC just issued a STWatch, correct? The IA/IL/IN area?
  4. yoda
    STWatch issued till 3am CDT/4am EDT -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0432.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 805 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells will continue to develop this evening from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, and eventually northwest Indiana/southern Lake Michigan. Storms may merge into a linear east/southeastward-moving cluster by late evening, with increasing potential for damaging winds and possibly an embedded brief tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Dubuque IA to 50 miles southeast of Racine WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
  5. yoda
    23z HRRR has a line setting up at the end of its run (17z TUE) in Western PA with what looks to be embedded sups (I think... could just be intense portion of the line forming) and storms initiating in the i81 corridor
  6. yoda
    FWIW, 21z RAP sim radar looks good... squall line crests Apps around 17z... reaches i95 corridor around 19z tomorrow afternoon 18z HRRR looks decent for tomorrow too around 19z
  7. yoda
    Good discussion by LWX in their afternoon AFD regarding tomorrow afternoon SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A warm front is expected to slowly lift northward through the region late this evening and into Tuesday. An upper level ridge will be in place over the upper plains with weak troughing over the eastern US on Tuesday. As the warm front lifts northward through the region on Tuesday, a southerly flow is expected to form leading to increased advection of warm and moist air into the region. The orientation of upper level ridge over the upper plains will place our region in a favorable location for shortwave energy to pass over the ridge and drop down into our region. Model guidance has continued to indicate that CAPE values will be well above 2000 j/kg with shear progged to be between 30 and 40 knots. Multiple waves/shortwaves moving along the boundary may lead to multiple waves of thunderstorms during the afternoon periods on Tuesday. HiRes guidance continues to differ about the threat for severe weather on Tuesday especially on the overall coverage of storms. Based on the environmental setup, any storms that do form will likely become strong to severe and potentially produce damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado. A westerly flow at 850mb could affect storm coverage and mean the difference between bowing segments and isolated supercells. We will need to monitor upstream activity which could affect the initiation of storms over our region. Model guidance may not come into good agreement until later this evening and we will need to monitor HiRes guidance to determine overall SVR threat, whether it be bowing segments or super cells or a minimum threats. A westerly orographic enhanced flow along with multiple shortwaves could lead to enhanced precipitation along the western Alleghenies and flooding.
  8. yoda
    Apparently there was a tornado in last night in Grand Island NE... in a stratiform rain shield
  9. yoda
    12z HRRR was... interesting for tomorrow afternoon 12z NAM NEST isn't bad either for both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon/evening 09z RAP at distance is also decent
  10. yoda
    That was a pretty tasty afternoon AFD
  11. yoda
    Haven't seen a warning written like this before BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 200 AM EDT. * At 116 AM EDT, a cluster of heavy thunderstorms capable of producing localized wet microbursts were located along a line extending from Naval Academy to Fort Totten, moving east at 10 mph. HAZARD...Localized wind gusts up to 60 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bowie, Annapolis, College Park, Crofton, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Largo, Bladensburg, Mayo, Naval Academy, Severn River, South River, University of Maryland, Fedex Field, Odenton, Arnold, Landover, Hyattsville, Takoma Park and Parole. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
  12. yoda
  13. yoda
    Apparently some don't learn Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1157 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 MDC031-030600- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-220703T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Montgomery MD- 1157 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY... At 1157 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar and law enforcement. Norbeck Road was closed due to flooding at Rock Creek in Rockville. Several water rescues were ongoing in Rockville and Aspen Hill as of just before midnight. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Rockville... Gaithersburg... Aspen Hill... Potomac... North Bethesda... North Potomac... Redland... Rossmoor... Wheaton-Glenmont... Wheaton... Darnestown... Derwood... Washington Grove... This includes the following Flood Prone Roads: Viers Mill Road at Rock Creek... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. &&
  14. yoda
    Water rescue near Aspen Hill 6" near Rockville per radar
  15. yoda
    00z NAM going with some outlandish soundings late Tuesday evening ETA: looks like nw flow stuff... cause KPIT at 18z has a nasty sounding
  16. yoda
    Canceled
  17. yoda
    Don't really see anything forming west of where the stuff us right now in DC and NE MD on radar attm
  18. yoda
    Tornado Warning Cecil
  19. yoda
    Just issued BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 901 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northwestern District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... North Central Arlington County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until midnight EDT. * At 901 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Arlington... Bethesda... College Park... Greenbelt... Langley Park... Beltsville... Pimmit Hills... Fort Totten... University of Maryland... Mclean... American Legion Bridge... Potomac... Tysons Corner... Hyattsville... White Oak... Takoma Park... East Riverdale... Adelphi... Kemp Mill... Chevy Chase... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
  20. yoda
    Watch out by McLean... storm strengthening
  21. yoda
    Why are the airport radars throwing up TVS and rotation sigs but not LWX? TDCA and TBWI are on Radarscope ETA: they aren't now... but we're earlier for a good time period
  22. yoda
    TDWR DCA had rotation marker up
  23. yoda
    Radar says you got some rain and lightning in Columbia... so thats why I was surmising
  24. yoda
    I'm gathering @WxUSAF got some rain today?
  25. yoda
    Hooking down by Potomac MD... but that's due to new development I believe
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