yoda

Besides a hurricane into N MX around Day 9 that crosses the N Yucatan Peninsula around Day 7... 00z GFS not really enthused with anything out in the Atlantic for its run tonight 00z GGEM has a middle Atlantic storm... but its in the process of recurve at Day 10 after slow meandering west movement from Day 5 on -- its' also a good distance east of the Antilles FWIW. 00z GGEM does not have any resemblance of the 00z GFS hurricane. Neither really show anything of interest coming off Africa either... but granted this will change next run of course lol ETA -- if you want something interesting tonight, the 00z ICON will strike your fancy lol. Takes the middle Atlantic low and develops it by Day 4/5. But instead of taking a CMC path of recurve, it is just north of the Greater Antilles at 180 moving W/WNW

Nope Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A broad and complex area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The interaction of this feature with an approaching tropical wave could support some gradual development of the system during the early and middle parts of next week while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Eastern Caribbean Sea: A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development of this system during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

I'm gathering that the 12z Euro would be a SE coast threat after 240

i stopped reading after lots of snow and very cold

Wonder if that s/w in MI would cause a recurve at the last minute at 384... yes I know it's fantasy land, but it's pretty much the only interesting thing on the models right now

It's probably going to turn north at that point looking at h5 with the break in the ridge... but yes it's in fantasy land

Looks like if it went out 2 more days on the 12z GFS we'd get a nice tropical visitor Ofc it's weenie land but still

Lol WTNT44 KNHC 200231 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Based on the current infrared and microwave satellite data, the system does not appear to have a closed surface circulation yet and is therefore still not a tropical cyclone. The mid-level center is estimated to be located in the southwestern portion of the deep convection. Since there has been little change in organization after the Air Force reconnaissance left the system, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on that data. The disturbance is moving northwestward at 12 kt. This general motion is expected to continue until landfall Saturday night in northeastern Mexico as the system is steered by a ridge to its northeast. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory prediction and closest to the correct consensus model guidance. Slight strengthening of the system is expected before landfall. Global models predict the vertical wind shear to increase in the next day or so, which should limit future organization and strengthening of the disturbance. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak of 40 kt before the system reaches the coast. It is worth noting that this intensity prediction is slightly above the guidance envelope. After moving inland, the system is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate within 48 hours near the Texas/Mexico border. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, during the day Saturday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Saturday night, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 21.8N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1200Z 23.2N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 21/1200Z 26.9N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

As long as you bring the snow this winter -- if you get to come back closer to home -- and not the Texas heat, then fine

Looks like it is? I am looking at it on Radarscope... unless its a bunch of birds?

I thought it was the GFS that always had fantasy snowstorms? Or was it the CMC? Anyway, hope you are enjoying it

Been raining for a while here... probably at least past 6 hours

I wonder if that doesn't weaken some by the time it gets here

If we could have this during winter... but with snow instead of cold rain, that'd be great

Sigh PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 548 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0547 PM FLOOD 1 NNE GREENBELT 39.01N 76.88W 08/10/2022 PRINCE GEORGES MD EMERGENCY MNGR MULTIPLE 911 CALLS BEING RECEIVED FOR WATER RESCUES && EVENT NUMBER LWX2204808

Numerous water rescues ongoing in Greenbelt

Ugh... power flickered twice... but still on for now

Stuff down in Fauquier County seems to be moving NE towards DC metro... that could cause some trouble if it maintains strength and track

I need @Bob ChiII and his WD index I think it was

The AFD seemed a bit ominous for this evening The biggest threat today by far is the risk for flash flooding. Slow storm motions, high PWATs, high CAPE, a stalled frontal boundary, and parallel flow along that boundary are all favorable for a flash flood risk. Training and slow-moving storms are expected this afternoon. Most areas could see an inch or two of rain, but isolated higher amounts (potentially much higher) are possible where training occurs. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr will be commonplace this afternoon, but it will be a matter of who sees those rates for the extended periods that determines the maximum flash flood potential. The Flood Watch was expanded to include the rest of the NW tier of the forecast area. Definitely want to watch how this line over eastern WV orients itself as it pushes eastward. Should this lay out east to west over the metros, could be looking at a big issue this evening for those areas. Some positive thoughts though are that there seems to be just enough DCAPE at this time to ever so slowly push storms east and south as they form new updrafts along their own weak outflows. So hopefully this will be just enough to get storms through quick enough to not be a major issue.