Probably in the morning update tomorrow looks like reading the afternoon AFD
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A slow moving cold front will impact our region Wednesday through
early Thursday morning. A continued unstable environment with CAPE
between 2000 and 3000 j/kg will interact with forcing provided by
the frontal passage to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday. PW's are forecast to maximize between 2 and 2.5 inches
with storm motions being relatively low. Based on the slow nature of
the frontal passage along with current model trends, it seems the
main storm/flooding threat will occur later in the day on Wednesday
and continue into the late evenings periods. The combination of
forcing from the front along with PW's around 2.3 inches and slow
storm motions will lead to an increased threat for flooding on
Wednesday. Although the flooding risk will be the bigger threat for
Wednesday, a combination of good forcing along the front and
favorable CAPE will likely mean there will be risk for strong to
severe storms as well. Global and hires guidance still has some
disagreements on the overall coverage/location of storms,but they
all agree that there will a risk for rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per
hour with storm totals above 4 inches possible. The threat for
showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain will
continue into the early morning periods of Thursday.