yoda

00z GFS says rainy Monday for all but some rain Sunday south of the i66 corridor... 00z CMC rainy late Sat into Monday morning

Thats why I said FWIW

So did the 00z GFS... so...

FWIW, 00z CMC slows down, but remains offshore of the west coast of FL as it goes by, makes landfall in the Big Bend of FL

lol look at the 00z GFS at 126... decent CAD... 1034mb HP in Quebec...

Thats a long time Ian is hanging around Tampa with little movement on the 00z GFS... 30 hours

if you choose to accept the 00z ICON, that would be a rainy weekend with maybe a threat for a few isolated tornadoes

lol 00z ICON goes for a 2nd landfall at Savannah, GA at 102

day 5 NHC has Ian (as a TD) in S NC

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Ian continues to become better organized on satellite images with intense deep convection in its Central Dense Overcast and numerous surrounding banding features. The overall cloud pattern is quite symmetric with well-defined upper-level outflow. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling, and the intensity is increased to 90 kt based on a recently reported 700 mb flight-level wind of 101 kt from the Air Force plane. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during the next couple of days. The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected in the short-term official intensity forecast. However, the SHIPS guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours. The NHC forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4 intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening. However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus predictions. Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. After around 36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is considerable divergence of the track models in the 2-3 day time frame. The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when Ian approaches the west coast of Florida. This slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday. This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. 5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South Florida Tuesday, spreading into central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding, including significant, prolonged river flooding, is likely across Central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

@Eskimo Joe would like

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Ian continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The last report from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 1630 UTC found 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt. The inner core appears better organized, and the eyewall structure has greatly improved in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands. The 18 UTC satellite classifications from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, but the continued improvement in satellite structure warrants raising the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for additional intensification during the next 24 h or so, as Ian moves over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36 h. After that, southwesterly shear in association with a deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to significantly increase over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely disrupt the vertical structure and import drier air into its circulation. Despite these less favorable conditions, Ian is still forecast to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. The NHC intensity forecast agrees well with the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest forecast and timing of expected impacts, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued along the west coast of Florida. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. 4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.3N 83.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Anclote River southward to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, including the St. Johns River. The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood. The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound. The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman and the Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

Decent little outflow boundary coming through on radar

CHO to EZF to S MD get dumped on... 3 to 7 inches of rain through 216 on 12z Euro

LWX AFD from this afternoon: For next weekend, that is where forecast uncertainty greatly increases over our area. Hurricane Ian is forecast to move into the southeast this weekend after landfall somewhere along the eastern Gulf Coast. What Ian does from there is still quite uncertain in terms of the when and where. Some impacts from whatever is left of Ian are possible this weekend though, so monitor the latest forecast for Ian from the National Hurricane Center with more details at hurricanes.gov.

You mean tomorrow?

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 138 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 VAC069-251800- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-220925T1800Z/ Frederick VA- 138 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA... At 138 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Winchester, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Stephenson, Clear Brook, Albin, Cedar Hill and Cedar Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3921 7820 3926 7821 3932 7812 3921 7807 TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 264DEG 34KT 3924 7814 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 139 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... The eastern City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... South central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 230 PM EDT. * At 139 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Inwood to near Millwood Pike to near Stephens City, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Leesburg, Winchester, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Charles Town, Poolesville, Millwood Pike, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Ballenger Creek, Countryside, Purcellville, Brunswick, Ranson and Berryville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3924 7727 3905 7734 3893 7745 3901 7830 3917 7816 3933 7822 3939 7739 TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 264DEG 50KT 3933 7816 3918 7808 3902 7820 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH