yoda

Runs up i95 corridor

Ridge is centered a little further west at 132 on 18z comparing to 12z 138 as the s/w is digging a tad further westward

Maybe a little further west with the digging s/w at 126 comparing 18z to 12z at 132

Guess they are heavily favoring GFS/GEFS?

Um, it has? From this afternoons LWX AFD: Broad, highly anomalous ridging will build into the Arctic, sending a deep upper low south into the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley by Thursday. The collision of this cold upper low with warmer temperatures near the Gulf Stream will likely generate a strong area of low pressure in the vicinity of the East Coast. Details in track, strength, and timing remain uncertain, and overall confidence remains low; however, it should be noted that most long range guidance has been unusually consistent in hinting at a potential wintry precipitation scenario late next week. &&

Morshu approves the 12z GFS run

H5 was glorious at 186

180 h5 on 12z EPS looks nice

I see a report of 0.5" ice in extreme N MD from COCORAHS

Afternoon AFD from LWX on the event... surprised at the bolded I highlighted NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cloudy and calm conditions through the rest of this afternoon, with temps generally in the low 40s along the metro, and upper 30s in most other locations. Light returns are noted on our LWX radar, but very little to none of that is reaching the ground as there is still so much low-level dry air. The bulk of the rain, as noted in the RLX radar, is still in WV from Parkersburg to Charleston westward. The forecast remains on track for a significant ice storm tonight through Thursday afternoon along and west of the Blue Ridge. Significant travel delays are expected along many major area roadways (including I-81, I-68, I-66, I-64, I-70, I-270, I-83), with closures possible in some areas, especially along/west of the Blue Ridge. Regardless, travel is going to be hazardous west of I-95, and could be dangerous along and west of the Blue Ridge for the Thursday morning and Thursday evening commutes. Ice accumulations of two to four tenths of an inch, with localized higher amounts nearing one half of an inch along the ridges are expected in areas under the Ice Storm Warning. Along the Allegheny Front, ice accumulations nearing three quarters of an inch are possible. For those under Winter Weather Advisories, total ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch are expected, with those higher amounts west of I-95. The forecast is most uncertainty right along and just east of I-95 where warm air advecting in will play a big role in how long, if at all, freezing rain impacts the immediate DC/Baltimore metro areas. Precip will transition to a cold rain from southeast to northwest, first along/east of I-95 by 10AM Thursday, then for most areas east of the Blue Ridge by early afternoon. For those west of the Blue Ridge, freezing rain hangs on through the early afternoon, transitioning to a cold rain by late afternoon.

Think also back to that Springfield interchange incident as well where the overpasses were icy... I think VDOT was caught off guard in that situation as well

Few more counties added to the WSW URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 316 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 VAZ028-030-031-WVZ051>053-140400- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0007.221215T0500Z-221215T2300Z/ Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 316 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet. Significant ice accumulation around a quarter of an inch, with up to half an inch possible along the ridges. Total sleet accumulations around one inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Virginia and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...Wintry precipitation begins as early as Wednesday evening, then becomes more intense overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Warmer air should push into the valleys by Thursday afternoon, but freezing rain likely continues on the ridges through through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes.

Parts of i66 on my way home from work had already been pre-treated

12z EPS just a tad different than the Euro OP at Day 9 lol

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 VAZ025>027-029-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-506-131645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.221215T0000Z-221216T0300Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations in excess of one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 MDZ001-501-502-WVZ050-055-501>504-131645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.221215T0300Z-221216T0600Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral- 342 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations in excess of one quarter of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice and strong winds. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes.

12z EC Ensembles should be fun

I81 and i66 corridor get smoked with ice if you accept the 12z CMC

Everyone goes to rain by 132

12z CMC starts frozen at 114 Still frozen i95 and west at 126

Hmmm

LWX morning disco on the threat .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... H5 riding will briefly build in Tuesday as a 1036 mb + high remains over eastern Quebec. This will result in subsidence at the surface with dry and sunny conditions. Temps will be in the low 40s for most (30s mountains). Now for the main focus of the long term, the highly advertised storm system. There remains considerable spread between different global guidance - with the GFS having more of a suppressed/progressive wave while the Euro is much more amplified. Overall ensemble guidance continues to support the Euro with a parent ULL moving through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Northeast/offshore into the Atlantic by Friday/Saturday. Uncertainty remains regarding any coastal low formation and associated wintry precipitation. Given the anomalous high pressure north of the region and surface ridge extending down the spine of the Appalachians, wintry precipitation (all types) is possible across the entire area in the late Wednesday to early Friday timeframe with higher chances along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains. Will continue to monitor this system as it gets closer and confidence increases. As the ULL moves offshore, there is the potential for a long- duration upslope snow event. Models hint at 24+ hours of QPF across the mountains starting near 12Z Friday into Saturday. This will be highly dependent on the aforementioned system and ULL pattern, will continue to monitor. Strong winds are possible areawide on the backside of the low. Temps will be below normal behind the system.

Only 7 of the 50 members support the OP run

Euro Control is going to support the OP... lets see what the individ ensembles say in a few

What's also interesting are the soundings during this storm on this 00z EURO run. Mostly below zero until you reach about 950mb to the surface for the areas that are breach 32 degrees... so its a very small warm layer at the very bottom