yoda

Note where he lives...

It does. Record before was 940.2mb set in 1977

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 The system remains sheared from the northeast, with the low-level circulation evident a bit to the east of the deep convection. Unfortunately, we didn't have the benefit of a reconnaissance aircraft this evening to sample the winds, but satellite estimates did increase a bit. TAFB and SAB provided Dvorak classifications of T2.0/30 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are at tropical storm intensity. Based on a blend of these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Ian with 35-kt winds. Ian's center appears to have been moving more slowly this evening, and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that Ian should turn westward during the next 12-24 hours while located to the south of a small mid-level anticyclone centered just north of Hispaniola. After 24 hours, Ian is expected to begin recurving around the western side of this high, turning northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and then northward while crossing Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida. The track models agree on this general scenario, and the guidance envelope is flanked by the major global models, with the ECMWF taking a route over South Florida and the GFS farther west, remaining over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The new NHC forecast lies between these two scenarios and is not much different from the previous forecast. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give more credence to the position of the official forecast. The moderate deep-layer shear affecting Ian is forecast to decrease during the next 6 to 12 hours, and the cyclone will be moving over the very warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are between 29 and 31 degrees Celsius. Intensification is expected to be gradual during the next 36 hours while Ian gets better organized in a lower-shear environment, but after that time, conditions will be conducive for faster strengthening. In fact, the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between days 2 and 3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward western Cuba. It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from SHIPS are showing a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds during the next 3 days, and if that transpires, Ian could be stronger than what's shown in the official forecast. The storm is not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening, and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico while approaching the west coast of Florida. Key Messages: 1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on Sunday. 3. Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.8N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.7N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.1N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.1N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.6N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 19.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR GRAND CAYMAN 72H 27/0000Z 21.2N 82.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 24.9N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 82.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER FLORIDA $$ Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM IAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 72.0W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 72.0 West. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn by late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Favorable as in better track?

I would think that the 18z GFS track would be decent for a heavy rain and severe threat next Saturday

Birthday for me and tropical system potentially? Nice

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 Convection this morning has increased primarily to the east of the area of low pressure we have been monitoring in the central Caribbean Sea, currently passing by to the north of Curacao island. The system already possessed a well-defined circulation for the last 12 to 18 hours, but it was only overnight that the ongoing convective activity was able to persist long enough near the center to be considered a tropical cyclone. The most recent satellite intensity estimate from TAFB was up to T2.5/35-kt. However the GOES-16 derived motion winds from the meso sector over the system have only been 25-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer on the northeastern periphery of the circulation. In addition, buoy 42059 located to the northeast of the center has been reporting winds up to only 27-kt. The combination of all these data provide enough justification to upgrade this system to Tropical Depression Nine, with the initial winds set at 30 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission will be investigating the system later this morning to provide more in-situ information of the system's structure and intensity. The current motion right now is estimated to be off to the west-northwest at 290/12 kt. In the short-term, the depression is forecast to bend back more westward as a narrow east-to-west oriented mid-level ridge builds in behind the weakness left behind from Fiona. The current eastward displaced convection may also tug the broad center in that direction as well. However, after 48 hours, this ridge will start to decay as a longwave deep-layer trough over the eastern United States begins to amplify southward. This synoptic evolution should then allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude, though the exact timing at which this occurs could be somewhat related to the vertical depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with a weak upper-level trough expected to be over the far western Caribbean in the day 3-4 time-frame. The model guidance early on is in fairly good agreement, but larger across-track spread begins to take shape by 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean located further south and west, and with the ECMWF and its ensemble mean located further north and east. The initial track forecast has decided to split the difference between these two model suites, and lies fairly close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. There is still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the day 4-5 timeframe. Currently the structure of the depression is quite disheveled, with the low-level circulation mostly exposed, with deep convective activity displaced to its west-southeast. This structure is due to 25-30 kt of northeasterly 200-850 mb vertical wind shear caused from the equatorward outflow channel of Fiona, resulting in significant upper-level flow over the system. However, as the depression moves westward, it will move out form under this unfavorable flow and into a lighter upper-level northeasterlies. However, it may take time for the low-level center to become better aligned with the convective activity, and thus only slow intensification is forecast over the next 24-48 hours. After that period, most of the guidance shows environmental conditions becoming much more favorable as shear drops under 10 kt and the cyclone is over the warm 29-30 C waters of the northwestern Caribbean. Thereafter, potential land interaction with Cuba, and the potential for an increase in southerly shear at day 5 may cap off the intensity at the end of the forecast. The initial NHC forecast shows the depression intensifying up to a category 2 hurricane by the time it nears the coast of Cuba. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also likely to spread into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands in the coming days. 2. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica and the Cayman islands as an intensifying tropical storm. Watches and warnings for these locations may be required in subsequent forecast cycles. 3. This system is forecast to approach western Cuba and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period. Interests in Cuba and those along the Eastern Gulf Coast of the United States should closely monitor this system, though at this juncture forecast uncertainty remains fairly high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 14.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 15.5N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 22.6N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR CUBA 120H 28/0600Z 26.0N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 68.6W ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn more westward is forecast over the next next day or so followed by a turn back to the west-northwest and northwest by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by more significant intensification over the weekend and early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for TD Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the following rainfall: Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao: Additional 1 to 2 inches Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches Northern Columbia: 3 to 6 inches Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum up to 12 inches Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches with local maximum up to 6 inches These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica. SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products form your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 ...CENTER OF FIONA PASSING NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 66.8W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES

Uh that would be a no on the 00z model suite tonight

Okay, who was playing around with the KCHO ASOS earlier?

Landfall near or just SE of KTLH

Hmmm... weakens 15 to 20mb from 168 to 174

Headed to the Big Bend of FL at 168

Actually looks like it's going to make landfall just north of Tampa at 228

Indeed... luckily skirts by as it heads north... but very close

Looks like Big Bend of FL

Entering E GOM at 180

Smacking extreme western Cuba at 168 at 985mb per TT

I believe @OSUmetstud is in NF? Or nearby...

Yup... and 850mb has 45 to 50kt winds too at 270 lol... so some wind as well

06z GFS FWIW quick recurve out to sea this run