yoda

At least it's in the teens Christmas morning? Lol

Lol 958mb in SW Quebec at 165

12z CMC 981mb SLP near Buffalo at 144... thunderstorms Thursday night?

Wintry mix for BR west at 123 NW VA/C MD and westward get a quick thump at 126

Cold Christmas Eve though in the 20s... sad trombone prize

Thursday night severe lol... 60 degrees

Nice warm heavy rain event!

12z ICON won't make any friends at 120

Just give me a couple inches. 1-2 is fine. Do i want more? Of course. But a few inches right before Christmas is an automatic win with cold air right behind

Another storm brewing for Christmas?? Nope, just some festive light snow

What a weird evolution of the 2nd part

Ripping snow in DC at 132 on 06z GFS

I believe the 06z ICON continues a good trend, no? The ridge out west is further east and the s/w isn't digging that far westward. Granted only goes out to 120 I'm comparing 06z 120 to 00z 114 h5 charts

I'd take this run all day. 6"+. We take

Runs up i95 corridor

Ridge is centered a little further west at 132 on 18z comparing to 12z 138 as the s/w is digging a tad further westward

Maybe a little further west with the digging s/w at 126 comparing 18z to 12z at 132

Guess they are heavily favoring GFS/GEFS?

Um, it has? From this afternoons LWX AFD: Broad, highly anomalous ridging will build into the Arctic, sending a deep upper low south into the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley by Thursday. The collision of this cold upper low with warmer temperatures near the Gulf Stream will likely generate a strong area of low pressure in the vicinity of the East Coast. Details in track, strength, and timing remain uncertain, and overall confidence remains low; however, it should be noted that most long range guidance has been unusually consistent in hinting at a potential wintry precipitation scenario late next week. &&

Morshu approves the 12z GFS run

H5 was glorious at 186

180 h5 on 12z EPS looks nice

I see a report of 0.5" ice in extreme N MD from COCORAHS

Afternoon AFD from LWX on the event... surprised at the bolded I highlighted NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cloudy and calm conditions through the rest of this afternoon, with temps generally in the low 40s along the metro, and upper 30s in most other locations. Light returns are noted on our LWX radar, but very little to none of that is reaching the ground as there is still so much low-level dry air. The bulk of the rain, as noted in the RLX radar, is still in WV from Parkersburg to Charleston westward. The forecast remains on track for a significant ice storm tonight through Thursday afternoon along and west of the Blue Ridge. Significant travel delays are expected along many major area roadways (including I-81, I-68, I-66, I-64, I-70, I-270, I-83), with closures possible in some areas, especially along/west of the Blue Ridge. Regardless, travel is going to be hazardous west of I-95, and could be dangerous along and west of the Blue Ridge for the Thursday morning and Thursday evening commutes. Ice accumulations of two to four tenths of an inch, with localized higher amounts nearing one half of an inch along the ridges are expected in areas under the Ice Storm Warning. Along the Allegheny Front, ice accumulations nearing three quarters of an inch are possible. For those under Winter Weather Advisories, total ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch are expected, with those higher amounts west of I-95. The forecast is most uncertainty right along and just east of I-95 where warm air advecting in will play a big role in how long, if at all, freezing rain impacts the immediate DC/Baltimore metro areas. Precip will transition to a cold rain from southeast to northwest, first along/east of I-95 by 10AM Thursday, then for most areas east of the Blue Ridge by early afternoon. For those west of the Blue Ridge, freezing rain hangs on through the early afternoon, transitioning to a cold rain by late afternoon.