yoda

00z CMC is... weird. Follows 00z GFS in that it moves due north after reaching SE Bahamas... then at Day 7, takes a NW jog toward NC... then Day 8 says nope and starts to head NE but is near HSE at 204... then an abrupt right turn out to sea as a s/w comes barrelling into the Great Lakes

00z GFS OP this run gets Fiona into the SE Bahamas then moves due north... takes a leisurely pace north Days 7-10... could be a Bermuda threat

11pm track has Fiona making landfall and moving through the DR and Haiti.... that would certainly cause some issues

18z GFS OP next weekend would be a bit breezy lol

Last advisory on Earl issued at 5pm... so now we wait... for awhile

12z NAM keeps the majority of the rain (i.e. >.5") west of the i95 corridor with the heaviest along the BR and parts of the i81 corridor 12z 3km NAM is more scattershot with its heavier rain totals... one in PW county, along the BR, out near Winchester, and in NE MD

Those types of storms, thankfully, are rare though

Yes... but that usually means a mess of a system or just tropical storm stuff

LWX morning AFD makes mention of it: There are beginning to be some hints towards the end of the long term period that a low pressure system spins up off the Atlantic coast along the stalled frontal boundary offshore over the Gulf Stream. For now, keeping that out of the forecast, as there are more pieces of guidance that keep this feature offshore or don`t develop it at all. This is just something to watch at this point in time.

Nothing of interest really anywhere on the 00z GFS and 00z EURO runs tonight... besides maybe some crappy TS system late in the GFS run (i.e. Day 12+) that shows up in the E GOM and heads into the W ATL out to sea

Not sure what that was from the 00z GFS for next weekend

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022 The convective structure of Earl this morning is interesting, with a large convective band with cloud tops below -70 C completing one full cyclonic orbit around the hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters earlier indicated that the central pressure had fallen from last night, with the final reading at 965 mb. However, the 700 mb flight level, SFMR, and tail Doppler radar winds have yet to respond to the continued falling pressure. Therefore, the wind speed this advisory will be held at 90 kt. Of note, the aircraft mission is reporting that Earl has a fairly large closed eye , with an estimated diameter of 50 n mi. Based on the last few center fixes, Earl is starting to make the turn to the north-northeast as it gradually accelerates, estimated at 030/11 kt. A shortwave trough in the process of moving offshore of the Eastern U.S. coastline and this feature, in combination with mid-level ridging to the east of Earl, is expected to cause Earl to bend further eastward as the flow accelerates. There have been very few changes made to the NHC forecast track over the first 24-48 hours, with Earl expected to pass 75-100 n mi to the southeast of Bermuda tonight into tomorrow morning. Shortly after 48 hours, Earl will be captured by the digging shortwave trough with model guidance indicating it will undergo a warm-seclusion-type extratropical transition. This process will also likely result in a substantial slow-down in the forward motion between 48-72 hours, and this portion of the track forecast has the largest along-track spread, related to the degree of phasing between Earl and this trough. Thereafter, their combination should begin to move eastward into the Atlantic Maritimes by the end of the forecast period, opting to favor a blend between the GFS and ECMWF track solutions. Per the latest SHIPS guidance, vertical wind shear over Earl is now under 10 kt and is forecast to remain that way for the next 24 hours as Earl traverses over 29 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus, steady intensification is expected, with the assumption that the current core structure of Earl fully consolidates and takes advantage of this favorable environment. The peak intensity of 115 kt is still under the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. After 36 hours, Earl will begin to undergo extratropical transition as the trough interaction introduces substantial baroclinicity as vertical wind shear rapidly increases. Earl is expected to transition into a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low sometime between 48-60 hours, with this low filling rather quickly thereafter, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda, tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island this afternoon through early Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are possible on Bermuda this evening or tonight if Earl's track shifts farther west than is currently forecast. 2. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. East Coast later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 29.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 30.7N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 33.5N 61.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 40.9N 53.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 43.6N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 44.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 46.1N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z 47.1N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin

Earl held at 105mph at 11

NHC just issued its last advisory on Danielle BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Danielle Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022 ...DANIELLE NOW POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.9N 31.0W ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Danielle was located near latitude 47.9 North, longitude 31.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to make a gradual counter-clockwise loop during the next 36 h, and then move generally southeastward to east-southeastward through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Danielle is forecast to remain a large post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic for the next several days, even as its peak winds slowly decrease. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

@40/70 Benchmark This is when you were forecasting the La Nina to peak yes? In the fall and then ease back into weak territory in early 2023?

12z model suite has some disparity: 12z GFS likes i66 north in MD... 1-1.25 for most of MD except for 2"+ in W MD 12z FV3/12z 3km NAM both have no rain for pretty much anyone through 00z TUE (both runs end there out to 60 hours) 12z RGEM decent for most... 1-2" with some pockets of up to 3" mainly in W MD 12z NAM shoves much of the heavier rain (i.e. >0.5") north of the M/D line 12z CMC has a precip hole near DC lol... but is 0.5"-1.0" for most but 1-2" for W MD and C VA (down towards CHO and SW portions of LWX CWA)

@weatherwiz and others (figured this would get seen more in here rather then in the tropics thread)

This looks fun

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022 Convection associated with Danielle has continued to decrease this morning, with a corresponding decrease in satellite intensity estimates. Based on this decrease, it is estimated that Danielle has weakened to a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 60 kt. While it is not known why the storm has weakened, one possibility is that the slow motion has allowed the cyclone to upwell cold water underneath it. Danielle is essentially stationary with a 12-h motion of 270/1 kt. The cyclone is still caught south of a blocking high over the North Atlantic. This pattern is expected to hold firm for a couple of days, with the system forecast to drift westward and then drift northward. After 48-60 h, the block will weaken and allow the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies to steer Danielle generally northeastward at a faster forward speed. There are no significant changes to the forecast track for the first 48-60 h. After that, the forecast has been nudged eastward due to a shift in the guidance envelope. The intensity guidance is still calling for Danielle to strengthen for 72 h or so. Given the possibility of upwelling and the forecast continued slow motion, the guidance might be a bit optimistic on that. The new intensity forecast calls for little change in strength for 12 h or so, followed by slow strengthening on the premise that the storm will move over somewhat warmer water. After 72 h, the storm is likely to interact with an upper-level trough, which could help maintain the intensity even as Danielle moves toward much colder water in the North Atlantic. This trough will also start extratropical transition, although this will likely not be complete by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 38.0N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 38.0N 44.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 38.1N 44.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 38.5N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 39.1N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 39.9N 43.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 40.7N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 43.0N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 46.5N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Lol BULLETIN Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 900 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022 ...DANIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 43.8W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 43.8 West. Danielle is currently nearly stationary. A westward drift is expected today and Sunday, followed by a northward drift on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Some slight strengthening is expected tonight through Monday, and Danielle could regain hurricane strength on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven