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yoda

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  1. yoda
    18z GFS likes BR to i95 corridor for the heaviest rains... 18z 3km NAM is i81 corridor... 18z NAM is basically everyone lol 18z RGEM likes W into C MD with a E WV panhandle bullseye
  2. yoda
    Afternoon disco from LWX about the threat SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Confidence is increasing in a potentially high impact heavy rainfall event Friday night into Saturday morning. A slow-moving cold front remains situated over the region, meanwhile a reinforcing cold front will be pushing in from the NW. Additionally, a potent shortwave will be sliding by overhead during the Friday night into Saturday timeframe. This results in almost all guidance developing a low either overhead or very closeby. There will also be an abundance of low-level convergence given the two frontal boundaries colliding as well. Almost all guidance dumps heavy rainfall over some portion of our region especially after midnight on Saturday morning. The question still remains as to exactly where this occurs. A lot of the uncertainty is related to exactly how the system evolves to our northwest. Flash flooding will certainly be a concern, especially given the antecedent conditions as a result of the heavy rainfall over the past several days in different parts of the region. The QPF forecast has come up greatly, and it is anticipated that our ERO category from WPC will likely expand and/or increase in coverage with the afternoon update. In addition to the flooding rainfall threat, starting to grow a bit more concerned with the severe thunderstorm threat as well. Timing will be key with this system, and if it comes through a bit slower into Saturday, could even have some decent CAPE to work with. The environment will be very well-sheared with the frontal boundaries nearby and decent upper-level support. Most concerned with a few damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even an isolated tornado along the boundary itself. The majority of the rainfall should be to our south by Saturday afternoon as the front marches south. However, given the remaining uncertainties, going to keep some chance POPs in the forecast for now as things can and likely will change to some degree.
  3. yoda
    Hmmm... sneaky severe tomorrow? SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As the initial front continues to sag on Friday, it will likely start to be pushed along by a stronger cold front later Friday into Saturday. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible both Friday and Saturday afternoons and evenings. Given some of the recent rainfall totals in the early 12z guidance late Friday into Saturday morning, flooding is starting to become a real concern. There is still a lot of uncertainty with exactly what happens though given ongoing MCS`s potentially moving into the area or nearby. Lots of moving parts to take into account. Some guidance even brings in a remnant MCV into the region and tries to spin up a low along the stalled frontal boundary. Guidance is really struggling to pick up on much instability obviously given the time of day, but should this occur at the right time (perhaps even into the day Saturday), we could be looking at an isolated severe threat as well. Again, lots of uncertainty here, but some guidance has a conditional tornado threat on Saturday should that above scenario play out, so it is something we are watching. For now, now outlook from SPC, but may have to revisit that with the overnight update should that trend continue. For now though, given the antecedent conditions coupled with any slower moving, training showers and thunderstorms, flooding/flash flooding appears to be the primary concern. This is highlighted by WPC`s Excessive outlooks in the D2 and D3 periods. May be looking to collaborate some changes there if the 12z guidance continues to come in bullish on precipitation amounts. Hoping for some more details with the afternoon package, but keep an eye on the forecast for any significant changes.
  4. yoda
    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 930 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0533 PM TORNADO 1 N BOWIE 38.98N 76.73W 07/05/2022 PRINCE GEORGES MD NWS STORM SURVEY STRUCTURES DAMAGED ALONG WITH TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED, AND POWERPOLES SNAPPED. AT THIS TIME, THERE HAVE BEEN NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF INJURIES. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 90 MPH. A COMPLETE PNS WILL BE ISSUED WEDNESDAY JULY 6TH, WITH MORE DETAILS. && CORRECTED REMARKS...SOURCE EVENT NUMBER LWX2204101
  5. yoda
    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 554 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0533 PM TORNADO 1 N BOWIE 38.98N 76.73W 07/05/2022 PRINCE GEORGES MD 911 CALL CENTER STRUCTURES DAMAGED WITH INJURIES REPORTED NEAR ANNAPOLIS RD AND SUPERIOR LANE && EVENT NUMBER LWX2204101
  6. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 616 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 616 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Deale, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Shady Side and Deale around 625 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lothian, Friendship, Tracys Landing and Galesville.
  7. yoda
    In furtherance of the post above Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 606 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 MDC003-052230- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220705T2230Z/ Anne Arundel MD- 606 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY... At 606 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Shady Side, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Anne Arundel County, including the following locations... Galesville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3886 7648 3882 7649 3880 7651 3884 7654 3889 7651 3886 7647 TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 293DEG 22KT 3884 7648 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  8. yoda
    A lot of our weather over the next few days is going to be tied to what happens out there IMO
  9. yoda
    New TW issued... off duty NWS met reports seeing funnel cloud BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 544 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 544 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Londontowne, or near Bowie, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...An off duty meteorologist reported a funnel cloud. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Mayo, Shady Side and Rhode River around 600 PM EDT. Deale around 605 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Harwood, West River, Davidsonville, Tracys Landing, Lothian, Galesville, Riva and Edgewater. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3875 7651 3873 7651 3872 7652 3877 7662 3889 7675 3899 7666 3886 7647 TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 305DEG 23KT 3889 7665 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  10. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0440.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a weak boundary. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds late this afternoon. A fast-moving bow echo over northwest Iowa will approach parts of the watch area by early evening, resulting in an increased risk of widespread damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Waterloo IA to 35 miles north of Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
  11. yoda
    New watch up for WI/IA/IN/IL until midnight CDT
  12. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 528 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 MDC003-033-052145- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-220705T2145Z/ Anne Arundel MD-Prince Georges MD- 528 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL ANNE ARUNDEL AND EAST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES... At 528 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Bowie, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Anne Arundel and east central Prince Georges Counties, including the following locations... Prince Georges Stadium, Riva and Glenn Dale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3895 7680 3899 7677 3895 7659 3886 7673 TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 309DEG 21KT 3895 7675 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
  13. yoda
    Did I miss an image or number?
  14. yoda
    Confirmed TOG over Bowie
  15. yoda
    Tornado Warning for Anne Arundel and PG counties BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 521 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 520 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Lanham-Seabrook, or near Bowie, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Woodmore around 525 PM EDT. Bowie and Kettering around 530 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Prince Georges Stadium, Glenn Dale and Riva. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. &&
  16. yoda
    Am I using the Radarscope tilts right when I say that rotation looks better on the higher tilts with that storm?
  17. yoda
    Picking up speed moving SE per latest SWS Beltsville to Goddard area looks like decent rotation
  18. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central Iowa Southwest to south-central Minnesota Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Long-lived bowing MCS across southeast South Dakota will spread east-southeast across parts of eastern Nebraska, western and central Iowa and far southern Minnesota with severe wind gusts. Additional cells ahead of it will pose a threat for hail and wind. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Denison IA to 40 miles southeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
  19. yoda
    Meso/rotation tag on Radarscope just appeared there
  20. yoda
    Maybe a little rotation by Cloverly?
  21. yoda
    Guess we should watch and see what happens back in WI/IL/IA later in tonight
  22. yoda
    Jesus Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 SDC045-049-059-069-107-119-051730- /O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-220705T1730Z/ Edmunds SD-Hand SD-Sully SD-Hyde SD-Faulk SD-Potter SD- 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDMUNDS...NORTHWESTERN HAND...NORTHEASTERN SULLY... NORTHERN HYDE...FAULK AND EASTERN POTTER COUNTIES... At 1203 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Brentwood Colony to 11 miles north of Holabird, moving east at 40 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR NORTHERN HYDE COUNTY. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. These severe storms will be near... Brentwood Colony around 1210 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Norbeck, Blumengard Colony and Faulkton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4469 9983 4530 9961 4529 9889 4451 9932 TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 280DEG 34KT 4517 9936 4469 9956 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH
  23. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A derecho with embedded significant severe wind gusts appears probable from central to eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa into this evening. ...SD to IA and southern MN... An intense cluster over central SD will likely persist east-southeast across southeast SD. This should evolve into a forward-propagating linear MCS, expanding in latitudinal extent as MLCIN further diminishes ahead of it. A large MLCAPE reservoir in excess of 3000 J/kg across southern SD/MN and northern IA will support potential for embedded significant severe wind gusts exceeding 75 kts. While the majority of CAM guidance appears to be egregiously poor (especially the HRW-FV3) with handling the conceptual model for this event, the 12Z HRW-ARW and NSSL are in the ballpark and suggest bowing linear segments will be maintained into southern MN and northern IA before weakening this evening.
  24. yoda
    2% tor introduced on 1630z OTLK
  25. yoda
    They just did on the 1630z OTLK and large 30 wind hatched with 45 wind as well
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