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Everything posted by Tatamy

  1. 06z Gfs has a flatter weaker system. Of more interest is the system for the 10th. Twenty four hours ago this was being portrayed as a big soaking rainstorm. The models are now showing a system that provides a significant front end dump of snow to some well inland areas before a change to rain. This evolution has been quite interesting to watch. Coastal areas are all rain with this one.
  2. The run that you show for today at 12z does not show the full duration of the event so this is misleading. The axis of heaviest snows has shifted to the northwest and with this run is over NE PA, NW NJ, and SE NY. Those areas see between 5 - 6” with the event with lesser amounts to the south and east.
  3. That will be dependent on snowfall rates. Penndot and NJDOT are usually pretty good with pre-treating the roads with brine and then salting during the event. These treatments will keep the roads mainly wet with temperatures as low as the mid 20’s.
  4. It’s not based upon the elevation. It’s based upon the urban heat island effect. There can be snow with the event anywhere in the city however how much of it sticks is very dependent on surface temperatures. You then have to incorporate temperatures up in the atmosphere to this equation. Many models are calling for mixing or even a change to rain. Throw in the presence of a warm ocean and the nearby LI Sound. Many parts that play into this scenario.
  5. Your point is well taken. I was speaking in general terms. Make no mistake that if even if half of that accumulates on city streets and sidewalks that would be a lot. The fact that much of this falls at night will help. I used to work in the city on the west side and recall a number of times where snow was falling at the roof top level (six stories up) and was falling as rain at street level. It really does take a significant cold air mass to get accumulations especially in Manhattan.
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