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Tatamy

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  1. Tatamy
    There’s a lot of people that don’t understand how different this storm will be as modeled when compared to other coastal storms that provided a lot of snow to the area. I am telling family out on LI to think of this as a hurricane that brings snow. The modeled intensity speaks for itself. I also introduced them to a new word for their vocabulary- Bombogenesis. The map below with the expected winds off the latest HRRR run speaks for itself. And yes it does have an eye.
  2. Tatamy
    Feb 1983 - Measured many hours of snow accompanied by wind gusts to 50 - 65 mph. Location- East Northport. Equipment- Downeaster Models are forecasting similar winds on LI. I have a Davis Vantage Vue on Fire Island and will be watching the reports there with great interest.
  3. Tatamy
    The difference is this event will have an IVT. Boxing Day did not.
  4. Tatamy
    Mt. Holly will need to issue Blizzard warnings for the Jersey coast and adjacent areas and should do so ASAP.
  5. Tatamy
    The GFS has also showed these winds in previous runs. Upton knew this was on the table and made the decision to issue the warning in order to give people time to prepare. Food stores will be insane today.
  6. Tatamy
    Wild stuff. The coastal areas are going to be hit really hard with both the winds and flooding.
  7. Tatamy
    It’s called Bombogenesis.
  8. Tatamy
    NAM Wind gusts Those are hurricane force wind gusts on eastern LI. The other visible feature is an inverted trough that helps to extend the precipitation field into western and NW NJ. This is one for the meteorology textbooks.
  9. Tatamy
    That deform band does look interesting.
  10. Tatamy
    I think we’ve had two today.
  11. Tatamy
    Have to love the NAM. So entertaining. We’ve gone from this at 06z to close to 30” in spots in our area in 2 runs. I think it’s outdone itself.
  12. Tatamy
    Water temps south of LI and east of NJ range from 36 - 38. This is close to the seasonal minimum and actually below normal. Coastal areas are in a different world as compared to early December (water temps then are usually still in the 50s) regarding ocean warmth being poised to flood inland.
  13. Tatamy
    This is Mt. Holly’s high end forecast (10% chance of verification).
  14. Tatamy
    06z EPS AIFS
  15. Tatamy
    Looks just like the 06z GEFS
  16. Tatamy
    06z NAM has zip. 06z Ukie has rain from the city south at 66 hours. It’s like these models are all in separate worlds.
  17. Tatamy
    06Z GEFS
  18. Tatamy
    GFS AI brings 1 - 1.5” QPF across the area (less well N&W). It’s been showing a relentless push to the NW with higher precip amounts.
  19. Tatamy
    This could require hurricane force wind warnings for the coastal waters. Tidal flooding would be a big problem with this scenario.
  20. Tatamy
    06z AI GFS
  21. Tatamy
    0Z AI GFS
  22. Tatamy
    No one seems interested in it…
  23. Tatamy
    Have to careful with some of the real end outcomes coming out in the models. GDPS is calling for 30”+ for my area. In 2021 it did something similar (RDPS) only it called for 50” so there is an history with that model. Actual storm amounts ranged from 24-36” where I am.
  24. Tatamy
  25. Tatamy
    2”
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