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Everything posted by Tatamy
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12/3 Snow/Sleet/Mix Bag of Everything Discussion/OBS
Tatamy replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
I just saw that on traffic cams in the area between Allentown and Reading. Precip looks like a mix of snow and sleet in that area. I have a snow/sleet mix here (Bethlehem Twp.) after a brief transition to sleet. Surface temps are going nowhere (29/27). Roads will be quite nasty. -
12/3 Snow/Sleet/Mix Bag of Everything Discussion/OBS
Tatamy replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
That’s WAA for you. Usually arrives sooner than later. As I type this I see we have just gone over to sleet. -
Expecting a fairly quick transition here as well. Areas to my south in SE PA have already gone to sleet/rain.
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12/3 Snow/Sleet/Mix Bag of Everything Discussion/OBS
Tatamy replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Steady light snow in Bethlehem Twp. Watching that mixed precipitation/rain line to my south. Figuring we should transition within an hour or so. -
Snow is still off to my west. The leading edge is about 15-20 miles west of Allentown. Where it’s falling it’s coming down hard. I am envisioning it will come in here like a wall based upon what I am seeing from traffic cams.
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Temperatures along the south shore of LI are in the mid 30s currently. Once the winds back around to the SE with the approach of surface low pressure this milder air mass from the ocean will come surging inland. Yesterday’s high pressure area is moving away rapidly so there is nothing in the atmosphere to prevent this warm up today.
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My weather station on Fire Island has seen the temperature jump from 37 to 44 in the past 45 minutes. Winds have shifted from ENE to ESE. Bottom line is the stage is set for rapid warming in the boundary layer for coastal areas this morning.
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30/22 and cloudy. Still waiting on precip here. Expecting a 2-3 hour period of snow before a quick change to rain. Interesting that none of the roads around my area were brined yesterday.
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I will add my 2 cents on this topic. As it looks now this event looks questionable to attain a NESIS rating. Do we want to consider that as a possible parameter for events of this type going forward?
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This continues to be a highly interesting storm to track. Multiple models have the rain/snow line within 10 miles north or south of my house. The line seems to flip with each run. For 06z I have been NAMed. I do agree with your statement about less surprises however this storm certainly looks to be a good test of model precision.
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I am thinking 1-2” for me before a mix/change to rain. Definitely going for the under with this event by me with the models setting up the rain/snow line across my area.
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Light snow 35/28
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With the 06z run the EC AI guidance is more aligned with most of the other models WRT expected snow totals. The EC OP is on the SE side of the envelope.
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Back in the 70s/80s in many instances that was true.
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That 12z EC run is epic for places N&W of I95. You don’t even see that in the dead of winter.
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The clickbait crowd will be going into overdrive. Imagine all the weather segments that will lead with this…
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The I78 Deathband event in PA, NJ, and parts of the city. It was like a synoptic scale lake effect streamer. The town south of me had 6” on the north end and 10” on the south end (5 minute drive). Similar in parts of NJ.
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Snow level is quite high in the Poconos early this morning. Looks like you have to be at least 1500’ up to see steady snow currently and even there it’s difficult to find it sticking anywhere. Places lower than that don’t look to see more than a mix at times.
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Still a few LE flurries and very light snow showers lurking out here.
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Watching those quick moving snow showers and squalls moving through northern and western NJ currently. Getting a snow shower now.
