Tatamy

There is wet snow mixed with the rain under those heavy echoes NW of Philadelphia.

Real variable weather around today. I had rain mixed with snow this morning however with temps up into the 40s just some rain showers now. Up in the Poconos this afternoon near MPO there have been snow squalls with a fresh inch of snow on the ground currently. You have to be up over 1600’ to see that.

A lot of damage to trees and shrubs out this way as well.

I took a quick drive to check out the gradient in snow amounts associated with the death band that set up just to my south. As a point of information I am located in Bethlehem Twp, PA and am situated between Route 22 and I78. I received 4.5” here. I drove 5 miles south towards I78. I am going with estimates based upon amounts observed on car tops and roofs. In the first 5 miles the amounts went from 4.5” to about 6” as I approached Hellertown, PA. A spotter reported 11.2” there. In the next 2 miles as I drove into Hellertown and under I78 the amounts rapidly increased from 6-10”. Most of Hellertown looks to have in the neighborhood of 10-12” with the highest amounts on the south side of town. This gradient really was like a LES band. Very interesting event to follow.

Up to 4.5”. Still getting some light snow and flurries. There is actually a good bit of this activity still going on in my region and fairly far to the north and west. It’s too light to see for the most part on radar but is visible on traffic cams.

Models did have the band. They were not able to resolve the very high rates and amounts for those under the most intense part of it. FWIW this banding feature was visible on radar out in the Midwest yesterday. I even commented yesterday evening that it looked like most of the snow with the event would occur at those locations in the band and that it would be near I78 as per the models. It looks like the band actually set up just a bit south of I78. Congrats to those who were in the JP zone.

Moderate snow currently as the event winds down. 4” storm total. 29/28

Heavy snow with 1/4 mile visibility. 3” new OTG. The deathband set up a few miles south of me. 29/28.

Light snow with visibility of one mile. 31/26

Very light snow has gotten underway here. 33/22.

One of the unusual features of how this event moves in is it is accompanied by low hanging virga as it moistens up the BL. I have been seeing this feature on traffic cameras all night long going all the way back to central PA and I am seeing it here now.

Snow has almost reached the Allentown area. Already snowing in Reading.

Snowing in the Harrisburg area. Looks like visibility’s come down fairly quickly with the onset of precip.

One of the interesting aspects of this incoming event that I am seeing on this evening’s model runs (particularly the short term models) is the positioning of the band of frontogenetic forcing. It is being progged to set up across east central PA and north central NJ and directly across the city. The band looks to be about 30 or so miles wide and will set up along or near I78. If this is what actually happens then those areas that are under this band will see 3-4” or more while other areas to the north or south get 1-2” or so. We will see if the 0z model runs continue depicting this feature. This feature has already been spoken of by others on this thread.

Less QPF (precipitation) with the system.

Snow has reached as far east as the Johnstown, PA area.

I would agree that 2-4” looks good for central and northern NJ and parts of the city with locally higher amounts possible in areas that get into banding. Many areas further west out into PA could see up to 4-8” with the banding that is expected to set up out there.

I can report the same has occurred here. It goes down as a trace.

I think closer to 4 would do it for Southern SI. 5 would be a difficult reach IMO.

The flow as modeled is offshore so no help from that direction for places on the island.

The trend in the models with the 12z runs is that the greater amounts will be mainly to the south and west of the city.

06z Euro also bumps slightly north.

Just a few very light flurries at my location with this activity.

Liberty - that is not a correct statement. That figure is more commonly used as a point of reference to relate the amount of QPF progged to expected snow amounts. In coastal areas (and inland too) the ratio can range from 5:1 in warmer storms with BL issues to 10:1 in slightly colder storms. 15:1 ratios can occur with colder storms accompanied by optimal conditions aloft.

The modeled BL temps made it quite clear this event would not be accumulating in the concrete jungles of Manhattan. Many areas in the outer boroughs did do okay with this one.