I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania. We had a snowstorm on 11/15. Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area. The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior. The Mets blew them off. The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said. We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office. On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW. By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet. We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”. The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk. The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.