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Everything posted by Tatamy
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Different world here. The cold front came through around 10:30 AM and it has been in the low 40s since.
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I think the Governor was behind this and given the expected conditions it is probably the correct decision. It’s always interesting to watch these games played in these conditions however when you have tens of thousands of people going out on the roads to get there this is probably the better call.
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If you are north and west of the city tomorrow you will definitely need to look out for some nasty snow squalls. This will be particularly true in the Poconos over to the Catskills.
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The big question will be is does it keep the storm. Like always we will follow the other models to see what they do with it. FWIW the 12z ensembles do have it.
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Do you have floodlights outside your house? If not consider getting them for this purpose.
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Ukie has been very consistent with this event. Over time the totals have come down some however the axis of expected accumulation has remained basically the same. It may or may not bust ultimately however I have to like that consistency.
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06z RGEM/NAM/ICON all have the storm for Tuesday. The NAM is over amped but the RGEM / ICON are definitely interesting.
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Snowman19 is entitled to his opinions however there are other posters here whom I pay more attention to. It doesn’t hurt to have someone with his point of view on the board. He does substantiate his posts however a lot of that seems to be cut and paste pieces from selected posters on X.
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EPS is still running. 06z OP run only goes out 90 hours so we are not yet within the range of the off hour runs. That changes tomorrow.
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FWIW the 18z GEFS has decided it wants in on this event. Up to now the model has been decidedly uninterested in this. With the 18z run 15/20 members (from the COD website) are calling for at least 2” across the area. 7/20 members are calling for 6” or more. This data does incorporate 10:1 ratios however if you look at the soundings I think this can be a safe number across much of the area. The ensemble mean is 4-6”.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
2.23” of rain here. NAM busted hard on the winds here however ( I am in an inland valley location). Max was about 25 mph and the model called for the same strength wind gusts that were called for and largely attained on LI. HRRR did better with the stronger wind gusts being along the coast.- 3,610 replies
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Waiting on that squall line currently just west of Allentown. Interesting look on radar to it.- 3,610 replies
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Similar conditions here. It’s pouring with winds of 5-15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph. Inversion is holding up well.- 3,610 replies
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Light rain here. 36/32- 3,610 replies
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- snow
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
0z NAM / NAM 3K hits the wind gust potential very hard tomorrow night.- 3,610 replies
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January 26, 1978 was the date of the Ohio Valley Blizzard. Lowest pressure reached 960 mb in Detroit and 956 mb in Mt. Clemens, MI. This resulted in a tremendous windstorm in the NE part of the country. Winds where I lived on the north shore of LI at the time reached 50-60 mph in gusts for a good part of the day and these winds were from the SW after the cold front passed.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
With additional rounds of snow my total is now up to 6.5”. According to radar I am done.- 3,610 replies
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- snow
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Snowing moderately currently with the snow showers and squalls in this area. 32/31.- 3,610 replies
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- snow
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
We went back to snow about an hour ago and picked up another 1/2”. Total now 5.5” OTG. 32/31- 3,610 replies
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Very true!- 3,610 replies
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- snow
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Getting some light freezing drizzle now. 32/31. Roads are horrendous here.- 3,610 replies
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
5” new OTG. It really ripped here for the past two hours under those heavy echoes. It’s tapered down to flurries as the most intense echoes have moved to my north.- 3,610 replies
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Tatamy replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Ripping here in Bethlehem. We are getting 2” flakes under those bright echoes. 4” new OTG.- 3,610 replies
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