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Everything posted by Tatamy

  1. FWIW the 12z Icon has 5-8” across the area from an event in the Friday night to Saturday period. The GFS has a much weaker event at that time and the other models don’t have this. Something to track during the upcoming week.
  2. The gradient on this run between the GWB and the Kew Gardens Interchange is something on the order of 6”.
  3. There was also banding with it which is common with those types of events.
  4. I believe the Synoptics with that event were quite different than those expected with this one. The ‘69 storm was a Miller B. The total snow amount where I was on the north shore of LI was in the neighborhood of 20-24”. I have a picture of 5-6 foot drifts in our backyard.
  5. It really is a weenie run. Four snow storms in a 10 day period starting on or about Monday. This is 2010 redux for the mid-Atlantic.
  6. 18z GFS has the storm for next week further south again. It’s just one additional solution to the many that are out there for this event. FWIW there were quite a few members on the GEFS 12z run with this further south solution as well.
  7. Good luck with that. I have been sucked into this for over 50 years. It’s not like you can just walk away from it… lol
  8. Bullish run on the 18z GEFS for the period starting after next weekend.
  9. The chart shown here initiated by Tomer Burg would in fact lead to a higher risk of suppression or OTS solutions. FYI Tomer Burg is a well regarded met who knows of what he speaks.
  10. It’s quite sad that all you can get is 0.5” at 2000’ above MSL.
  11. Very light snow here. Have been getting very light snow and flurries since the overnight hours. Most of it has not been sticking. 34/31
  12. That was a success however the 1/19/78 event that brought 12-18” across the area was a huge bust to the upside. Forecasts up to the night before were mainly calling for a change to rain after 2-4/3-6”. The first hints that I received that this would be bigger was at 10:00 PM the previous night when WCBS 880 was speaking of trucker reports of a wall of snow on the Jersey Tpke at Hightstown with dangerous conditions south of there. I woke up to 14” inches the next morning before it began to mix with sleet.
  13. Yes we did get ours this year.
  14. I grew up in the 70s on LI. The concept of a 6”+ storm basically did not exist at that time. The greatest amounts that were ever forecasted were 4-8” by AW because that was as big a storm as there could be or so it seemed. We had two storms of about 7” during that period and that was it.
  15. It’s snowing lightly across much of the Poconos. It looks like you need to be at least 1200’ up to see this and even there only a light coating is observed on non paved surfaces. Given the type of storm that this is and the moisture it has it’s quite a sad sight. Even 2000’ only gets you a coating with steady light snow. If you live near the coast and think you’re getting a raw deal with the lack of snow you’re not the only one.
  16. As expected by virtually all of the models snow has been very hard to come by with this event. Props to the CMC suite for seeing this from the beginning. The Euro did a good job of picking up the banding signature that set up from SW to NE across my area and over to northern NJ. Rain here most of the night with a temp of 37.8. Temps have been steady here. 0.82” so far. I have not seen any snow on the traffic cams that I have looked at along I380/I84 in NE PA.
  17. Looks to be an interesting morning in areas with elevation above 500 - 700 feet near and to the north and west of I78/I287. Recent HRRR runs are setting up for a surprise dump in those areas.
  18. A review of the soundings on the 12z HRRR shows very nicely the features you are speaking of. You will need elevation (as always) to get the best results from this. I would agree places along I80 and north would be best positioned to see this. I also like the fact that there is no strong southerly flow at 925mb to impede this.
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