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Tatamy

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  1. Tatamy
    Your point is well taken. I was speaking in general terms. Make no mistake that if even if half of that accumulates on city streets and sidewalks that would be a lot. The fact that much of this falls at night will help. I used to work in the city on the west side and recall a number of times where snow was falling at the roof top level (six stories up) and was falling as rain at street level. It really does take a significant cold air mass to get accumulations especially in Manhattan.
  2. Tatamy
    The 06z GEFS mean for the city is 6.8”
  3. Tatamy
    The precip that you refer to will likely be quite light as the event winds down. In any case whatever snow does fall looks to get completely washed away with the incoming rain storm later Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.
  4. Tatamy
    0z GEFS mean is for 6-8” for all areas from I95 and to the north and west. Two things stand out on the past 4 runs or so and that is the axis of heaviest snowfall is quite consistent in its placement. The other is the amounts on the mean have been gradually increasing.
  5. Tatamy
    It’s actually a better run for much of NW NJ and SE NY than the 12z run.
  6. Tatamy
    01z NWS BOM has 6-12” to the north and west of I95 with lesser amounts to the coast.
  7. Tatamy
    18z EPS mean targets NW NJ, SE NY, and NE PA with about 6” generally. Lesser amounts down to the coast.
  8. Tatamy
    It’s been years since I last watched that channel. My service does not even offer it.
  9. Tatamy
    It’s easier to do than you think. Set up a YouTube channel and you can provide users with graphics like that shown above with commentary. If you reach 1000 subscribers you start getting paid.
  10. Tatamy
    Northern NJ / SE NY Jackpot with 7-8” mean. Less for coastal areas.
  11. Tatamy
    Yeah that’s already been appearing on some of the model runs.
  12. Tatamy
    18z GFS is quite progressive with the following event moving in during the day Tuesday and it’s out of here by early Wednesday. It’s basically a rainer for everyone with 1-2”.
  13. Tatamy
    Still have about 48 hours or so until the NAM gets its first chance to start parsing out the warm layers associated with this event.
  14. Tatamy
    GEFS mean is a nice look for the area.
  15. Tatamy
    We are going to have many runs with many different outcomes over the next few days for the upcoming weekend. We will see results ranging from big hits in the mid-Atlantic, a crush job here, runs with precip issues along the coast, and any combination of the above. We then potentially get to do it again during next week with a greater chance of a region wide change to rain. Nothing is currently set in stone for how this all works out.
  16. Tatamy
    This setup has been appearing in multiple ensemble members for days now.
  17. Tatamy
    With the 50/50 low set up like it is it maybe the NE crew that has the most to be concerned.
  18. Tatamy
    Let Walt do the thread for this one.
  19. Tatamy
    Bluewave tells it like it is.
  20. Tatamy
    Tomorrow will mark 700 days since at least 2” of snow was last recorded in Central Park (from the post at the beginning of this thread). I think if we get through January with this streak still going I like the chances of making it to 1000 days and then some before next years season.
  21. Tatamy
    Event total up to 2.37”
  22. Tatamy
    Now up to 1.79”. Still pouring.
  23. Tatamy
    Pouring here. Up to 1.33” on the day.
  24. Tatamy
    A SSWE represents the start of a pattern change. It is in no way a guarantee of a long term cold and snowy pattern. I will describe the issue in a simple manner. Over the past several winters we have seen the establishment of a very strong west to east jet stream over and across the northern Pacific Ocean. The significance of this is that it prevents the sustained formation of a ridge over the western states which would deliver cold air down to us from northern Canada. This said jet stream literally blows away this ridge before it can get established and covers the country in mild Pacific air which is too mild for snow. This was the issue last winter.
  25. Tatamy
    FWIW there have been other periods where NYC had snow amounts of less than 20” over successive winters. These include: 1899 - 1901 1927 - 1932 1949 - 1955 1961 - 1963 1974 - 1975 1979 - 1981 1987 - 1990 1997 - 2000 2006 - 2008 None of these winter periods featured seasonal totals of 20” or more (I am referring to the seasonal totals experienced during these years and not the entire period shown). Many of them were 15” or less. These numbers are from the NWS Upton website. Unfortunately for the weenies it is a part of the climatology here that we do in fact experience successive winters with meager snow amounts. I would have hated to be a weenie in 1949 knowing that the next 6 winter periods would all have less than 20” of snow.
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