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Tatamy

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Everything posted by Tatamy

  1. Tatamy
    Pouring here. Up to 1.33” on the day.
  2. Tatamy
    A SSWE represents the start of a pattern change. It is in no way a guarantee of a long term cold and snowy pattern. I will describe the issue in a simple manner. Over the past several winters we have seen the establishment of a very strong west to east jet stream over and across the northern Pacific Ocean. The significance of this is that it prevents the sustained formation of a ridge over the western states which would deliver cold air down to us from northern Canada. This said jet stream literally blows away this ridge before it can get established and covers the country in mild Pacific air which is too mild for snow. This was the issue last winter.
  3. Tatamy
    FWIW there have been other periods where NYC had snow amounts of less than 20” over successive winters. These include: 1899 - 1901 1927 - 1932 1949 - 1955 1961 - 1963 1974 - 1975 1979 - 1981 1987 - 1990 1997 - 2000 2006 - 2008 None of these winter periods featured seasonal totals of 20” or more (I am referring to the seasonal totals experienced during these years and not the entire period shown). Many of them were 15” or less. These numbers are from the NWS Upton website. Unfortunately for the weenies it is a part of the climatology here that we do in fact experience successive winters with meager snow amounts. I would have hated to be a weenie in 1949 knowing that the next 6 winter periods would all have less than 20” of snow.
  4. Tatamy
    You don’t even see a fantasy storm on the GFS within 300 hours on these runs. Every attempt at a ridge gets quickly squashed by that power house PAC jet. It looks like we really are cooked.
  5. Tatamy
    I need to make the same commitment… lol - I do look at the ensembles as a reality check.
  6. Tatamy
    1/2” give or take.
  7. Tatamy
    I was up in northeastern Pennsylvania today where there was actually some snow on the ground from overnight snow showers. It was very hit or miss with some places having about a 1/2” - 3/4” OTG while many others were green and brown like these parts. I actually saw some blowing snow in one area - that was a shock to see. 2000’ in the Poconos got you 3/4”. I did come across one place where there was a shopping center with a sheet of ice in the parking lot. I don’t miss that. I am guessing that area will have a Christmas as brown as ours.
  8. Tatamy
    Anyone else (NW NJ / NY)have a small coating of snow on the ground this morning? My low so far has been 33.5. I looked outside and thought this can’t be real.
  9. Tatamy
    Event is winding down out here. Rainfall total 3.04”
  10. Tatamy
    Rain total now up to 2.42”
  11. Tatamy
    Rain total up to 1.47”
  12. Tatamy
    Rain total up to 0.50”
  13. Tatamy
    0z NAM is not good news for coastal areas.
  14. Tatamy
    SLP is projected to occlude by the models as it reaches our latitude. This is why the strongest winds are projected to remain off shore.
  15. Tatamy
    I am seeing that as well.
  16. Tatamy
    Seas peaked well offshore in the mid 40’s with the passage of Sandy. I checked a number of the offshore buoys situated to the north and northeast of Cape Hatteras earlier and most of them were not reporting off shore wind data. These are the buoys situated off of the mid Atlantic coast. This is concerning.
  17. Tatamy
    My daughter is in Charleston now. Streets are currently under water as far as she can see in the downtown area.
  18. Tatamy
    How about the prospect of flight delays at the NY area airports on Monday?
  19. Tatamy
    All done here with a storm total of 1.90”. We did get a period of light snow which did not stick.
  20. Tatamy
    Total here up to .94”. Wind has been a non issue here today. Temp down to 53 with the cold frontal passage. Looking for some white rain in the morning.
  21. Tatamy
    National Severe Storms Laboratory Weather Research and Forecast Model. You can google additional information about it including forecast parameters used.
  22. Tatamy
    Over time I believe it will become increasingly difficult to see snowfalls of 1” or more in NYC. This won’t be solely caused by global warming either. I used to work in Manhattan back in the first decade. I worked in midtown near 34th and 9th Avenue. In a borderline event with wet snow I would routinely walk from 9th to 8th Avenues and the snow would turn to rain due to the urban heat island effect. You could walk down some streets and see snow falling at the rooftops and rain at street level. Now that West Side Yards has been built I am sure that is no longer possible. That brings me to my point. There are currently plans for what are known as “Supertalls” all over Manhattan and the other nearby boroughs. Investors are buying up properties and tearing down what is there in order to construct these enormous buildings. NYC is well on its way to having into the hundreds of these 800’ to 1000’ buildings throughout the city. I think by 25-50 years or so there will only be snow in Manhattan with the most intense/cold storms. I believe that this man made mountain range will have other effects in the region that have yet to be seen or determined.
  23. Tatamy
    Two days in a row with light snow in the morning. Yesterday we had a coating which was gone by lunchtime. Today a slightly heavier coating so far. The heaviest amounts I have seen up in the Poconos (about 2000’) look to be about an inch. Reminds me of some of the garbage events from last year.
  24. Tatamy
    In my time on these boards I have found you to be one of the most knowledgeable and objective posters that I know. You provide very insightful analysis and substantiation to back it up. I find that I have learned a great deal from the posts that you provide. Thank you for your contributions.
  25. Tatamy
    Steady light snow at 34 degrees. Visibility 1 mile with this channelized vorticity activity dropping south from the lakes. This has been well modeled for a few days now. Not really sticking.
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