I actually went to chase this little event that night at a higher elevation and this is what I saw. I was convinced that I was not going to see anything at my place. It turned out that I didn’t have to. In any case it lasted less than 15 minutes.
Check out the MSLP and 10m AGL winds for the 06z GFS at 192 hours on Pivotal. This run has something for everyone. Hurricane force winds, 972 SLP - even a sting jet feature. Fortunately these features are off shore.
The CMC is going with rain on the coast and ice inland for the event later next week. The Euro is rain for most with ice well inland for this one. The GFS seems to be on it’s own with the big snows.
A year before that it was the turn of the CMC to produce the gigaweenie maps for the 1/31/21 event. Many places in northern NJ and the other northern and western suburbs received 24-30” from that one.
A look at the surface winds during the course of this storm as shown on these models paints a revealing picture of why LI and most of NYC is mainly rain while the rain / snow line is right near the CT coast. As the event begins those surface winds are mainly from the east. That locks in the slightly milder air mass coming in from off the warm ocean. With time those winds do back around to north- northeast and north and increase. Only then can the BL cool enough in order for snow flakes to reach the surface. By then the heaviest precipitation has moved to the east. The only way this gets done sooner is if precipitation falls at much heavier rates. I saw this happen many times when I lived out on the island. For the sake of those of you out on the island hopefully this event evolves differently.
I was out on LI last week. I was amazed by how much color was still on the trees and vegetation. In decades past this was done by second week of November.
In so far as LI goes you would need SST’s below 45 in order for the atmosphere (with cold or cooling temperatures aloft) to overcome onshore flow during a winter event.
Chris - You mentioned the intensity of these echoes produced by Nemo. Most of the radar obs that we speak of relating to weather comes from the NWS network of Dual-Pol Doppler sites. The FAA also has a network of 80 radar sites (CARSR) around the country to serve its purposes. I have read that these sites have the capability to monitor the weather and report it in the NWS six level format. Do you know how the functionality of these sites/equipment compares to that of the NWS?
Activity is moving very rapidly to the east. Snow squalls currently in the Stroudsburg area near the Water Gap. Squall also moving through the Reading area. From radar I would guess that you would get no more than 5-10 minutes of snow in a burst when these move through.