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Tatamy

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Everything posted by Tatamy

  1. Tatamy
    That is so true.
  2. Tatamy
    This is exactly what it was like in the 70s and 80s coming of age on LI. Most every winter was like this with a few exceptions. I did not experience a storm with greater than 8” of snow that I could remember until I was 16. I remember one time there was an event where it rained on the island and snowed on the hills in CT not far from the sound. The following afternoon I went to a nearby beach and could see it across the sound in the late afternoon sun. It is what it is and it represents the climatology of the area.
  3. Tatamy
    Snow amounts on here are a lot greater than those shown on its ensemble mean.
  4. Tatamy
    He’s liking the Euro/EPS.
  5. Tatamy
    This is a really great piece and provides a much needed scientific perspective to the ongoing conversation here regarding snow to liquid ratios.
  6. Tatamy
    12z RGEM is in a totally different world as compared to the 12K NAM at the end of their runs in terms of precip type, extent, and temperatures.
  7. Tatamy
    Great article- Thank you!
  8. Tatamy
    I asked Snowman but you might know the answer to this. What variables are used to calculate the total snowfall positive depth change?
  9. Tatamy
    Do you know what variables are used to calculate this?
  10. Tatamy
    There is no law in the annals of physics that states that snow has to fall at a ratio of 10:1. There seems to be a lot of people who believe that it does however that is not the case.
  11. Tatamy
    I-84
  12. Tatamy
    06z Gfs has a flatter weaker system. Of more interest is the system for the 10th. Twenty four hours ago this was being portrayed as a big soaking rainstorm. The models are now showing a system that provides a significant front end dump of snow to some well inland areas before a change to rain. This evolution has been quite interesting to watch. Coastal areas are all rain with this one.
  13. Tatamy
    I don’t even want to think about what must be going on in the NE forum tonight.
  14. Tatamy
    The other take away here is how the increased confluence is creating a stronger downslope flow in the LHV and the CT River which greatly reduces accumulations up there.
  15. Tatamy
    You really did… lol
  16. Tatamy
    I think the models have been reasonably consistent so far with this event.
  17. Tatamy
    19z BOM goes with 7-9” across eastern/NE PA, western/NW NJ, SE NY, and interior CT.
  18. Tatamy
    Kuchie actually looked pretty good.
  19. Tatamy
    It was not bad if you are inland. The axis of heaviest snow would be from northern NJ across SE NY to interior CT. The ensemble mean in this area calls for 6-7”
  20. Tatamy
    Good post. Regarding the follow up apparently no one here has looked at what the CMC OP does with it… lol
  21. Tatamy
    The run that you show for today at 12z does not show the full duration of the event so this is misleading. The axis of heaviest snows has shifted to the northwest and with this run is over NE PA, NW NJ, and SE NY. Those areas see between 5 - 6” with the event with lesser amounts to the south and east.
  22. Tatamy
    You should hold those thoughts until the S/W is more fully analyzed by the North American RAOB network and the short range models can parse this.
  23. Tatamy
    That will be dependent on snowfall rates. Penndot and NJDOT are usually pretty good with pre-treating the roads with brine and then salting during the event. These treatments will keep the roads mainly wet with temperatures as low as the mid 20’s.
  24. Tatamy
    Rates do matter however the precip type is ultimately dependent on temperatures aloft.
  25. Tatamy
    It’s not based upon the elevation. It’s based upon the urban heat island effect. There can be snow with the event anywhere in the city however how much of it sticks is very dependent on surface temperatures. You then have to incorporate temperatures up in the atmosphere to this equation. Many models are calling for mixing or even a change to rain. Throw in the presence of a warm ocean and the nearby LI Sound. Many parts that play into this scenario.
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