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Everything posted by Tatamy

  1. This is exactly what it was like in the 70s and 80s coming of age on LI. Most every winter was like this with a few exceptions. I did not experience a storm with greater than 8” of snow that I could remember until I was 16. I remember one time there was an event where it rained on the island and snowed on the hills in CT not far from the sound. The following afternoon I went to a nearby beach and could see it across the sound in the late afternoon sun. It is what it is and it represents the climatology of the area.
  2. 06z Gfs has a flatter weaker system. Of more interest is the system for the 10th. Twenty four hours ago this was being portrayed as a big soaking rainstorm. The models are now showing a system that provides a significant front end dump of snow to some well inland areas before a change to rain. This evolution has been quite interesting to watch. Coastal areas are all rain with this one.
  3. The run that you show for today at 12z does not show the full duration of the event so this is misleading. The axis of heaviest snows has shifted to the northwest and with this run is over NE PA, NW NJ, and SE NY. Those areas see between 5 - 6” with the event with lesser amounts to the south and east.
  4. That will be dependent on snowfall rates. Penndot and NJDOT are usually pretty good with pre-treating the roads with brine and then salting during the event. These treatments will keep the roads mainly wet with temperatures as low as the mid 20’s.
  5. It’s not based upon the elevation. It’s based upon the urban heat island effect. There can be snow with the event anywhere in the city however how much of it sticks is very dependent on surface temperatures. You then have to incorporate temperatures up in the atmosphere to this equation. Many models are calling for mixing or even a change to rain. Throw in the presence of a warm ocean and the nearby LI Sound. Many parts that play into this scenario.
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