Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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The Mesos missed the snow squall we had earlier tonight. To their credit Mt. Holly did outlook it in their AFD. I would agree on the idea of the best chances being Thursday morning especially north of the city.
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Mt. Holly’s Snow Squall warning verified (minus the wind). We have 0.5” new. That’s probably more than what we will see tomorrow night and Thursday.
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I saw that and there is some really heavy snow coming down along the Tpke at tunnel near Lehighton. Waiting to see how much of that makes it down here or into western/NW NJ
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HRRR has been showing snow showers and squalls across eastern PA and into parts of northern NJ for a few runs for tomorrow afternoon. Something to watch for.
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Snowman is correct. Arctic stream involvement is a must for snow for this event in this area.
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Euro/CMC are both going for snow for places in the Poconos/Catskills/Berks and north with the late week event. Euro has been going for this for a few runs now.
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Looks like the center of SLP is crossing LI now. My station on Fire Island has recently seen an abrupt change in wind direction from NE to W with a temperature drop of 4 degrees in the past half hour.
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It’s there now!
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.95 overnight
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The Thanksgiving Snowstorm in ‘89 was preceded by a powerful cold front on the Tuesday prior. This front was accompanied by widespread violent severe thunderstorms across Long Island and other parts of the region with many reports of damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph.
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Walt - please start the thread. This storm could be quite impactful.
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It’s an outlier solution.
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0z GFS is all in with the potential for significant snows across NW NJ and NE PA.
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This one was always going to be about elevation. It’s been great to have something this interesting to track on the models.
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If you want something to peruse check out today’s 12z ensemble runs (entire run) - particularly for north and west areas. I am not talking about today’s CFS runs as they are at a whole different level.
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We need Arctic stream involvement. These Polar jet driven systems won’t get it done.
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You’re going to need elevation for this one.
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27 with a hard freeze.
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Event total here of 0.26”
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It’s actually raining here and I am measuring. 0.05” on the day.
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Still have not measured. Yawn
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If you look at the genesis of this system it actually forms in the Caribbean. It has likely had tropical features initially and probably picks up a name along the way. GFS really got creative with this one. FWIW the CFS has popped a few runs with snows in the east however accumulating snow only happens well inland.
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So the Euro starts running out to 360 hours on Tuesday twice a day. I guess that means twice as many fantasy storms. This should be fun.
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Absolutely. Dewpoint here is 23. Whatever annuals that are left are toast tonight unless you are in a paved urban area or right next to a body of water. Only spoiler in your area would be if a very light breeze from off the sound continues through the overnight and keeps temps up a bit however that seems unlikely.
