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Tatamy

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Everything posted by Tatamy

  1. Tatamy
    Have to love the NAM. So entertaining. We’ve gone from this at 06z to close to 30” in spots in our area in 2 runs. I think it’s outdone itself.
  2. Tatamy
    Water temps south of LI and east of NJ range from 36 - 38. This is close to the seasonal minimum and actually below normal. Coastal areas are in a different world as compared to early December (water temps then are usually still in the 50s) regarding ocean warmth being poised to flood inland.
  3. Tatamy
    This is Mt. Holly’s high end forecast (10% chance of verification).
  4. Tatamy
    06z EPS AIFS
  5. Tatamy
    Looks just like the 06z GEFS
  6. Tatamy
    06z NAM has zip. 06z Ukie has rain from the city south at 66 hours. It’s like these models are all in separate worlds.
  7. Tatamy
    06Z GEFS
  8. Tatamy
    GFS AI brings 1 - 1.5” QPF across the area (less well N&W). It’s been showing a relentless push to the NW with higher precip amounts.
  9. Tatamy
    This could require hurricane force wind warnings for the coastal waters. Tidal flooding would be a big problem with this scenario.
  10. Tatamy
    06z AI GFS
  11. Tatamy
    0Z AI GFS
  12. Tatamy
    No one seems interested in it…
  13. Tatamy
    Have to careful with some of the real end outcomes coming out in the models. GDPS is calling for 30”+ for my area. In 2021 it did something similar (RDPS) only it called for 50” so there is an history with that model. Actual storm amounts ranged from 24-36” where I am.
  14. Tatamy
  15. Tatamy
    2”
  16. Tatamy
    Storm total 2” on all surfaces.
  17. Tatamy
    Been getting steady light to at times moderate snow here. 1.3” new OTG. 31/30
  18. Tatamy
    Steady very light snow. 36/28. Expecting about an inch here.
  19. Tatamy
    Do you know how to read and interpret a computer model?
  20. Tatamy
    Here are the 06z and 12z runs of the EPS-AI.
  21. Tatamy
    I am posting the 12z ensemble guidance below from the EPS, CMCE, and EPS AIFS. The EPS AIFS has actually been quite consistent with its precip field in recent runs.
  22. Tatamy
    Places north and west could do okay however it’s borderline near the coast. Interesting run.
  23. Tatamy
    06z Euro - the coast rains
  24. Tatamy
    That visibility there is 1/4 to 3/8 mile so this is moderate to heavy snow that has been falling there for most of the afternoon.
  25. Tatamy
    I am surprised that there is not ice on LI Sound. Last time that I saw that was February 1979 during the week prior to PD1.
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