Roger Smith

________________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-Feb 2022) __________________ Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________ 127 _145 _189 __ 461 __159 _153_ 88 __ 400 __861 __126 _132 _ 181 __ 439 ____1300 so_whats_happening ____116 _130 _152 __ 398 __165 _148 _ 68 __ 381 __779 __ 108 _150 _182 __ 440 ____1219 wxallannj ________________ 94 _108 _126 __ 328 __148 _146 _122__ 416 __744 __140 _142 _146 __ 428 ____1172 hudsonvalley21 __________104 _122 _126 __ 352 __154 _128 _ 80 __ 362 __714 __130 _156 _156 __ 442 ____1156 ____ Consensus __________100 _114 _130 __ 344 __150 _132 _ 74 __ 356 __700 __136 _152 _160 __ 448 ____1148 DonSutherland1 _________ 108 _120 _146 __ 374 __154 _106 _ 66 __ 326 __700 __138 _158 _130 __ 426 ____1126 BKViking _________________ 92 _106 _128 __326 __140 _130 _ 42 __ 312 __638 __134 _166 _156 __ 456 ____1094 RodneyS _________________ 84 _ 80 _110 __ 274 __108 _142 _ 88 __ 338 __612 __138 _160 _172 __ 470 ____1082 _____ Normal _____________ 90 _104 _124 __318 __ 80 _ 130 _116 __ 326 __ 644 __112 _166 _126 __404 ____1048 Tom ______________________70 _ 76 _ 92 __ 238 __144 _ 96 _158 __ 398 __ 636 __146 _164 _ 90 __ 400 ____1036 Scotty Lightning _________ 90 _104 _134 __328 __ 62 _110 _ 56 __ 228 __ 556 __ 102 _156 _ 126 __ 384 ____940 RJay _____________________ 80 _ 94 _114 __ 288 __130 _130 _ 32 __ 292 __ 580 __ 92 _ 102 _ 76 __ 270 ____ 850 Roger Smith ______________48 _ 58 _ 54 __ 160 __ 66 _ 106 _ 60 __ 232 __ 392 __ 152 _118 _130 __ 400 ____ 792 Stormchaser Chuck (1/2) _ 92 _ 92 _ 80 __ 264 __ 58 _ 86 _ 80 __ 224 __ 488 ___ 94 _ 68 _ 24 __ 186 ____ 674 =========================================== Best Forecasts _ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with two others. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan so_whats_happening ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0 wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland1 __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ Feb BKViking _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith ______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred once for SEA in Feb.) (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them) So far, 13 of 18 forecasts qualify, 4 warmest and 9 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _ _TOTAL DonSutherland1 __________ --- _ 4-0*_ ___ ____4-0 (3.5 - 0) wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ ___ ____4-0 (3.5 - 0) Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ ___ ___ 2-0 Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ ___ ____ 2-1 RodneyS __________________ --- _ 1-0 _ ___ ___ 1-0 so_whats_happening _____ 1-0 _ --- _ ___ ____ 1-0 ____ Normal _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ ___ ____ 1-0 Roger Smith ______________ --- _ 1- 1 _ ___ ____ 1- 1 hudsonvalley21 ___________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 RJay ______________________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 Scotty Lightning __________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 wxallannj __________________--- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 BKViking __________________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 ===============================

Would the shift east in snowfall as you've been discussing be related to warming, not just the AGW type but natural variability from the 1961-90 average to 1991-2020, upstream at Toronto I have that calculated to be around 1.5 F deg almost none of which would be urban heat island and only a fraction AGW (but even if all AGW, same argument) -- with less intense cold draining out of eastern Canada, cold air damming over southern New England in today's type of storm would be less robust on average. Of course there could be specific exceptions. Can somebody give me one or two good examples of heavier snowfalls in CT from similar coastal transfer type synoptics? I could have a look at what was happening upstream in those cases. If you wanted an even larger scale explanation, the temperature changes for Toronto probably reflect changes in the Pacific anomalies.

Dying primary is now south of SYR and large areas of moderate snow across eastern Ontario and upstate NY should get pulled into the coastal circulation rapidly now, the entire storm consolidates by 00z into one low south of NS with a trailing wave east of BOS, my feeling is that some of this snowfall is going to be pulled southeast across VT and s NH, northern parts of MA later this afternoon, could keep snowfall rates fairly good in places where some seem to be saying only 1" more to come? Would say 3-5" more is quite realistic. Should play out quickly as the upper trof is moving at warp speed.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 normals for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... deadline is 06z Tuesday March 1st.

I'm representing queens but my 8-10 diamonds is a Daniel Negranu must-play.

Toronto.

This has over-performer written large, long duration and lots of moisture, cold air well entrenched, could see nice 12-22 inch bands through most of n CT and MA, southern tier of VT and NH, southern ME. Probably closer to 6-10 south coast CT-RI and se MA. These early spring coastal redevelopers always seem to do better than expected. They don't have much chance of advecting warm air very close to the snowfall zones. Would it be correct to say that banding is not very strong in these coastal redevelopers? As compared to a classic nor'easter? I know the all important result is Tolland so that calculates out to a juicy 16.3". The jack will be somewhere north of ORH maybe just across state line but a local 24" seems possible. Significant wind chills with this will make it near-blizzard like as experienced by the public even if not meeting criteria.

This may surprise, but I am leaning milder for MD and definitely VA, the cold push will be repelled slowly but surely and the ice or sleet will be largely confined to the northern tier of counties in MD and southern PA, as temps recover to mid to high 40s F around midnight, with a south wind resuming by 8 p.m. ... there could be minor icing further south before this pushback sets in. Maybe this is not very different from what others are expecting, I haven't read every post just the more recent ones. This looks like the typical early spring coastal transfer upstate NY-nPA-inland NE snowstorm scenario with 8-12 inch potential there. Worst icing from this around Reading PA.

Final scoring for February 2022 Scores are based on end of month anomalies (several posts back now). * _ one point late penalty applied __ ^ max 60 scoring by ranks. Forecaster ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL Don Sutherland 1 _____ 78 _ 96 _ 94 __ 268 __ 94 _ 72 _ 36^__ 202 __470 __44 _ 82 _ 94 __ 220____ 690 RodneyS ______________62 _ 78 _ 88 __ 228 __ 90 _ 78 _ 48^__ 216 __444 __ 52 _ 76 _ 78 __ 206 ____ 650 BKViking ______________72 _ 92 _ 94 __ 258 __100_ 60 _ 18^ __ 178 __436 __ 36 _ 78 _ 86 __ 200 ____ 636 wxdude64 _ (-1%) _____69*_ 87*_ 97*_ 253 __ 97*_ 53*_ 24^__ 174 __427 __ 50 _ 48 _ 93*__ 191____ 618 ___ Consensus ________ 64 _ 86 _ 84 __ 234 __ 98 _ 60 _ 30^__ 188 __422 __ 42 _ 64 _ 78 __ 184 ____ 606 hudsonvalley21 _______ 68 _ 92 _ 76 __ 236 __ 90 _ 64 _ 42^__ 196 __432 __ 32 _ 64 _ 68 __ 164 ____ 596 so_whats_happening __ 64 _ 86 _ 84 __ 234 __ 95*_ 66 _ 12^__ 173 __407 ___20 _ 60 _ 82 __162 ____ 569 wxallannj ______________40 _ 62 _ 60 __ 162 ___ 96 _ 60 _ 54^__210 __372 __ 42 _ 54 _ 54 __ 150 ____ 522 Scotty Lightning ______ 68 _ 92 _ 94 __ 254 __ 62 _ 46 _ 06^__ 114 __368 __ 28 _ 64 _ 52 __ 144 ____ 512 ___ Normal ____________ 48 _ 72 _ 74 __ 194 __ 72 _ 36 _ 36^__ 144 __338 __ 28 _ 84 _ 62 __ 174 ____ 512 Tom ___________________30 _ 50 _ 50 __ 130 __ 98 _ 12 _ 60^__ 170 __300 __ 52 _ 68 _ 44 __ 164 ____ 464 RJay __________________ 58 _ 82 _ 84 __ 224 __ 92 _ 56 _ 12^__ 160 __384 __ 08 _ 34 _ 12 __ 054 ____ 438 Roger Smith ___________ 12 _ 28 _ 14 __ 054 __ 38 _ 36 _ 30^__ 104 __158 ___98 _ 48 _ 52 __198 ____ 356 ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== [] ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== swh ORD fcst -1 (late revision) _______________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report DCA_ Don Sutherland (+1.5) takes a win for an outcome of +2.6. NYC_ Don Sutherland (+1.2) takes a win for an outcome of +1.4. BOS_ wxdude64 (+1.2) takes a win for an outcome of +1.3. ORD_ Did not qualify (-1.6). Fifth coldest forecast had high score. ATL_ RodneyS (+2.1) takes a win for an outcome of +3.2. IAH_ Tom (-1.9) takes a win as outcome is -5.8. DEN_ At -3.6 this is a win for Roger Smith (-3.5). PHX_ At -0.8, win for DonSutherland1 (+0.1 coldest forecast) and also Normal. SEA_ At -1.9, this will be counted as a shared win for DonS (-1.6) and wxdude64 (-2.2) although a one point late penalty could be used to remove this result from the list of extreme forecasts. It counts as a loss for Roger Smith at -4.3. (four wins for DonS, two for wxdude64, and one for Tom, Roger Smith, RodneyS and Normal; and one loss for Roger Smith (too cold at SEA). ) Eight of nine locations qualify for an extreme forecast, four warmest and four coldest. --------------------------------------------------------- Forecasts for checking scores Actual ________________+2.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 __-1.6 _+3.2 _ -5.8 ___ -3.6_ -0.8 _ -1.9 Don Sutherland 1 _____ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __-1.1 _ +1.8 __ 0.0 ___ -0.8 _+0.1 _ -1.6 BKViking ______________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ -1.4 _+1.2 _+0.6 ___ -0.4 _+0.3 _-1.2 wxdude64 _ (-1%) _____+1.1 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ -1.3 _+0.9 _+0.5 ___ -1.1 _ +1.8 _-2.2 Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+0.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ____0.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 _______ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.1 __-1.9 _+1.4 _-0.5 ___ -0.2 _+1.0 _ -0.3 so_whats_happening __+0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.6 _+1.5 _ +1.0 ___+0.4 _+1.2 _ -1.0 ___ Consensus ________ +0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.3 _+1.2 _+0.2 ___-0.7 _+1.0 _-0.8 RodneyS ______________+0.7 _+0.3 _+0.7 __-0.9 _+2.1 _ -0.7 ___ -1.2 _+0.4 _ -0.8 RJay __________________ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 __-1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 wxallannj _______________-0.4 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -1.2 _ +1.2 _ -1.6 ___ -0.7 _+1.5 _ +0.4 Tom ____________________-0.9 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 __ -1.5 _ -1.2 _ -1.9 ___ -1.2 _ +0.8 _+0.9 Roger Smith ____________-1.8 _-2.2 _ -3.0 __ -4.5 __0.0 _ +0.2 ___-3.5 _+1.8 _-4.3 ________________________________________________________________________ After the discussion posted in January on max 60 scoring, I wanted to go over how the IAH scores were generated ... scoring boost for IAH (-5.8) _ note scores must be at least the progression level, can only be adjusted for spread up from that level. Forecaster ___ fcst __ raw score __ prog score __ linear ____ recalc ____ gain over raw Tom __________-1.9 ____ 30 _______ 60 ____________ 60 _______ 60 ______ 30 wxallannj _____ -1.6 ____ 24 _______ 54 ____________ 51 _______ 54 ______ 30 RodneyS ______ -0.7 ____ 07 ______ 48 ____________ 39 _______ 48 ______ 41 hudsonv21 ____ -0.5 ____ 05 ______ 42 ____________ 36 _______ 42 ______ 37 DonS, norm ____ 0.0 ____ 00 ______ 36 ____________ 26 _______ 36 ______ 36 R Smith, con ___+0.2 ____-02 _____ 30 _____________23 _______ 30 ______ 30 wxdude64 _____+0.5 ____-05 _____ 24 _____________18 ________24 ______ 24 BKViking _______+0.6 ____-06 _____ 18 _____________16 ________ 18 ______ 18 RJay, swh ______ +1.0 ____-12 _____ 12 _____________ 09 _______ 12 ______ 12 Scotty L ________+1.5 ____-22 _____ 00 _____________00 _______ 06 ______ 06 (scores are recalc up if either raw or linear scores are higher than levels. Scotty L to 06 as prog level unused and prog differential smaller than either raw or linear drop. This will be the format for any other recalc situations from max 60, for example, if RodneyS had predicted -1.5 his raw score would be 22 (not sufficient) but his linear score 49 and that would have replaced 48. If hudsonvalley21 had predicted -1.4 as well as the above, then his raw score would be 20 and his linear score 48 (replacing 42). ... the use of zero for minimum score will be applied only when the forecast at end of progression is further out of step than the parameters, otherwise it will go to the range 01-06. Eleven scoring levels are required for eleven forecasters, ten spaces between levels means progression is by 6 pt units). Note also for practical purposes raw scores below zero are zero when they occur in a non-boost situation. This was factored into "gain over raw score" above, 00 was used not the negative raw scores that generate the linear progression for fairness.

Very low thickness values by Monday morning, could see near zero F in rural nw MD and teens in the cities, over a fresh 3-5 inch snow pack. Highs only in the 20s to near 30F on Monday.

I can tell you that it has been very mild in the daytime here (I am due north of Spokane near the border) for about a week now, and we are probably around +2 or +3 here. The low anomaly in SEA is probably mostly due to daytime inversions, they have been in fog quite often in Vancouver this past ten days with the milder air on the slopes. IAH had a few very cool days and otherwise near normal. Chuck, sorry you missed Feb, I should have sent you a reminder after that good start in Jan but I get very busy with all sorts of contest duties on three different forums and by the time I noticed it was getting towards the end of the penalty cutoff. Anyway, March thread will open around the 24th in this short month.

Tracking anomalies and projections ... ____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA _11th ____ (10d anom) _____ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ -0.2 _+0.9 _-7.4 __ -2.7 _ -0.7 _ -0.7 _21st ____(20d anom) _____ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +2.1 __ -1.0 _ +1.5 _-5.5 __ +0.3 _ +1.1 _ -0.3 _11th ____ (p20d anom) ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ -2.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _11th ____ (p28d anom) ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __-1.0 _ +1.5 _ -1.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 _21st ____ (p28 anom) ____ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ -2.0 _ +1.0 _ -3.0 __ -2.0 _ +1.5 _ -1.5 _25th ____ (p28 anom) ____ +2.0 _ +2.0 _+1.5 __ -2.0 _ +2.0 _ -4.0 __ -2.0 _ -0.5 _ -2.0 _28th ____ (final anoms) ___+2.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 __ -1.4 _ +3.2 _ -5.8 __ -3.6 _ -0.8 _ -1.9 (11th) _ Cold air has been confined to the central regions most of the month so far, with variations producing small anomalies in both east and west. Recently very warm weather has developed over the west and there will be several very cold days in the east, but these appear likely to be balanced against warmer spells. So the projections show little change at first, other than a flattening out of the larger negative anomalies, then a general slight warming trend later in the month. Confidence is not all that high in the exact outcomes shown but for most locations a positive anomaly looks more likely than negative on balance. IAH will also run fairly warm but has a larger negative anomaly to overcome. (21st) _ The trends 11th-20th were generally about as expected although warming at both IAH and SEA was weaker than I had estimated, so their anomalies remain lower (SEA by a less significant amount). Going forward, it now appears that there will be significant cold air intrusion in the east after a brief warmer spell, and longer more sustained cold in central and western regions other than for PHX which looks relatively warm. The end of month projections now reflect those trends. The degree of cold air for the east seems insufficient to flip the anomalies to negative but the interval itself will average about -3 or possibly -4 F. (25th) _ Adjusted the projections, looks a bit milder after very warm days earlier in the week in the east despite cold air now pressing in, meanwhile slightly colder for IAH and PHX than expected, preliminary scores to be adjusted. _28th _ Most of the projections are close enough at this point to wait for final adjustments, but IAH will come in lower which will activate the "max 60" scoring, thus not much difference to current scoring and also DEN looks colder so have revised scores for now based on -4.0. ... overnight all other values will be adjusted to final values and scoring will be updated as required. (As of 12z all scoring is complete with the final anomalies available, see above). ========================================================= Updated winter snowfall totals ... to Mar 10th DCA _ 12.3" NYC _ 17.9" BOS _ 53.8" ORD _ 32.1" DTW _ 39.6" BUF _ 87.5" DEN _ 39.8" SEA _ 9.2" BTV _ 57.8" ____________________________ This list will now be updated only in the March contest thread.

That low over the Great Lakes just sits there losing what little energy it ever had, until it almost disappears. For once, you might actually benefit if the Great Lakes low had some energy because that could trigger a coastal reflection instead of what the GFS currently shows as an OTS non-phasing low. I think there's a chance, given the faint signals available from other sources. Should see a trend towards this phasing over the weekend if it's going to happen.

Table of forecasts for February 2022 Forecaster ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Don Sutherland 1 _____ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __-1.1 _ +1.8 __ 0.0 ___ -0.8 _+0.1 _ -1.6 BKViking ______________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ -1.4 _+1.2 _+0.6 ___ -0.4 _+0.3 _-1.2 wxdude64 _ (-1%) _____+1.1 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ -1.3 _+0.9 _+0.5 ___ -1.1 _ +1.8 _-2.2 Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+0.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ____0.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 _______ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.1 __-1.9 _+1.4 _-0.5 ___ -0.2 _+1.0 _ -0.3 so_whats_happening __+0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.6 _+1.5 _ +1.0 ___+0.4 _+1.2 _ -1.0 ___ Consensus ________ +0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.3 _+1.2 _+0.2 ___-0.7 _+1.0 _-0.8 RodneyS ______________+0.7 _+0.3 _+0.7 __-0.9 _+2.1 _ -0.7 ___ -1.2 _+0.4 _ -0.8 RJay __________________ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 __-1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 wxallannj _______________-0.4 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -1.2 _ +1.2 _ -1.6 ___ -0.7 _+1.5 _ +0.4 Tom ____________________-0.9 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 __ -1.5 _ -1.2 _ -1.9 ___ -1.2 _ +0.8 _+0.9 Roger Smith ____________-1.8 _-2.2 _ -3.0 __ -4.5 __0.0 _ +0.2 ___-3.5 _+1.8 _-4.3 ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== [] ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== swh ORD fcst -1 (late revision) color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts consensus is median or 6th ranked forecast of 11. any later entries welcome, will adjust consensus.

-1.8 __ -2.2 __ -3.0 __ -4.5 __ 0.0 __ +0.2 __ -3.5 __ +1.8 __ -4.3

Looks to me like a better than average chance of February snowfall, not an ideal pattern but very little torch potential after the brief warming around Thursday, even that could lead to a bit of snow in northern parts of MD and higher parts of WV. I see one scenario in particular around ten days from now that looks promising, with much colder air digging back into the interior west and central plains regions.

We get about the same amount of snow around here as many parts of New England but it comes in rather boring 2-4 inch dumps on a regular basis and seldom is there what I would call a snowstorm. On the other hand at this elevation (I am at about 4000 ft asl) it seldom melts once on the ground, although it can rain here and turn a snow pack into a mess. Current snow depth here is more or less what it has been for weeks, 15" with 2 feet at the local ski hill and 3 feet in the alpine. Down in the Columbia valley they vary from 6" to a foot most of the winter and sometimes lose the pack. It has not actually snowed here for two weeks but it looks about the same as it did every day since mid-December. I think the snow pack here is a bit below normal, it can be up to 4-5 feet. These storms you get are considerably more interesting but our heat waves rock (five days over 105 F last summer). Severe storm action is about a toss-up.

The 100th anniversary of the Knickerbocker storm of 1922 came and went. I guess with the death toll that might not be seen as worthy of a thread. Also there was a recent 250th anniversary of the Washington-Jefferson storm of Jan 1772. And today is 12 years from the onset of the great run of snowstorms in 2010.

Worth keeping in mind that snowfalls are often 10% or so higher than resulting snow depths, as snowfalls are totals of six-hour measurements on swept surfaces, snow depths at end of an event will usually have some compaction. Sometimes the difference can be a greater percentage too. I have seen cases where snow depth exceeds snowfall, that is sometimes the case at arctic weather stations where snow blows into an area after a light snowfall and so the observer finds a greater snow depth than the previous time of measurement, not from the snowfall but from the drifting.

Great, I only need 16 more of those events then.

This is a reminder to the several NYC forum members who participate, to submit February forecasts and an invitation to others to join the party. (it's in the general weather forum). I thought with the combination of the storm and the big football games today, it might not be top of mind. Have a great rest of your weekend blah blah.

So BOS tied top one-day I gather ... for the 2-day which was only 0.2 higher this is where it fits into the list that was posted by sonebody (forget who now) that I copied from their source, and which needed editing as shown because they had come up with two entries for two storms that ran three days (a list of this kind should have only the storm's better two-day total, I think). Some hidden coding in the block copy has conveniently updated the rank numbers, my edit screen shows them as they had been before I inserted the new 6th place Blizzard of 2022. I cannot edit that without just typing it all over myself. And I cannot vouch for either the accuracy of this list or its acceptability as being "official" but for what it's worth ... Feb. 18, 2003: 27.6 inches Feb. 7, 1978: 27.1 inches April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches Feb. 9, 2013: 24.9 inches Jan. 27, 2015: 24.4 inches (new to list Jan 29, 2022 __ 23.8 inches) Feb. 17, 2003: 23.6 inches **** Jan. 23, 2005: 22.5 inches (should be 7th) Jan. 28, 2015: 22.3 inches **** 1Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches (should be 8th) Jan. 21, 1978: 21.4 inches (should be 9th) Dates shown are second of any two-day totals. (my edit to the above ... **** are secondary reports of a storm in the list, and should not be in the list)

Re my earlier post of snowfall totals, I went back into the NWS documents where the CF6 is now also updated (I reported from the first appearance of daily climate reports) and found that with one exception, the CF6 documents have my numbers and not those quoted in the "NWS chat." For ISP, the CF6 had adjusted the Friday portion from 1.2" to 1.5" ... otherwise all CF6 docs have the same numbers that I had seen in the climate reports. Not to say these may not change if the NWS chat is based on some later information not yet placed in the CF6. As of this time stamp, the ISP climate report for Friday 28th had not adjusted the amount shown in the CF6, it remains at 1.2". Will continue to monitor and edit any changes that I see into my post. I also checked the climate reports (none of which have any new editions posted) to see if they now say anything different, and none of them do. The now adjusted value for ISP is still in the current version of the Friday climate report. My work with the Central Park data base and various other official products has convinced me that there are two sets of official data that sometimes have slight variances in them, but when you go back further there are larger ones from time to time. I have no idea what's causing this to happen. Since I obtained the data from Don S, I asked him about checking into one recent discrepancy between data and product tables, and they changed the value we queried. Another one remains unchanged in the document (their CF6 for a recent Dec has a different mean temp than the document shows). Those were the only two months that had differences in the past 30 years, then you get into more frequent 0.1 F differences for a few decades, and then even larger differences especially in the period 1890 to 1910. Hoping to get answers one day as to why these exist, but anyway, it underscores the fact that "official climate data" can be maintained in two separate data bases by two different people or groups of people, and sometimes then their numbers don't match perfectly. The answer is to have one person maintaining one set of official records with no parallel sets of records. That is how the CET data are managed, and so there are never discrepancies between products, although errors can still happen and adjustments can still be made at later dates by that one person (I presume he has assistants but he's the sole authority on the integrity of data in that long-running data base).

For NYC the daily amount of 7.3" has been confirmed but keep in mind that 1.2" also fell just before midnight on Friday 28th so the storm total is 8.5" -- whether that's accurate or not, it is a new daily record replacing 4.7" (1904) for the 29th, and that was the lowest value for any January record snowfall so that gap is filled. The other locations all had similar small amounts from Friday to add to the Saturday amounts, these are what I see on the climate reports just updated for the Friday-Saturday totals: (edit _ I have since checked the CF6 documents updated through 29th, ISP has been adjusted in this list, but other cases where the quoted NWS chat varies from these numbers are not changed in the CF6 and I will continue to check the CF6 to end of month; these are the official records so I'm not sure why the NWS chat would be at variance with them.) JFK ___ 1.6 + 9.3 = 10.9" LGA ___ 1.3 + 8.1 = 9.4" ISP ____ 1.5 + 23.2 = 24.7" BDR ___ 0.9 + 9.6 = 10.5" EWR ___ 1.4 + 6.6 = 8.0"

In some ways yes, but they don't have as long a period of observations. If I can get some acceptance from NWS relevant authorities for the integrity of my data base, then they could use it with adjustments they think are justified. I don't feel qualified to make such adjustments without at least discussing the topic with better qualified individuals (including Don Sutherland) who are perhaps more familiar with the details of the site changes and the potential adjustments that might be warranted. I'm a bit more familiar with the problems posed by site changes around the Toronto location in my study, having gone to university and stayed in a dorm on campus where the instruments are now located (they were in a government office building property when I was a student and for decades after that). I don't consider the three sites that I know to be used at different stages of the Toronto observatory to be significantly different in exposure but they have been gradually surrounded by a large city and its urban heat island. There was however a brief period around 2020 when it appeared to me that the Toronto rainfall data was being augmented by daily sprinkler contamination (much more frequent daily amounts than regional stations, albeit rather small ones when not actually weather-related). There I am already making inquiries with Environment Canada about a variety of issues raised. As to how much the CP (NYC) data might need adjusting, that would have to be worked out carefully and I don't have any preliminary ideas about what might be necessary or appropriate, if in fact anything is needed. One factor would be to assess whether a gradual "parkland densification" at the site is actually an anomaly for the metropolitan area or if it perhaps represents an evolution of the setting that is not necessarily unusual. I know from some field experience that tree canopies can reduce maximum temperatures in calm weather patterns (warm season) but they can also increase overnight lows by similar amounts so that mean temperatures don't suffer as much with two sources of compensating errors.