Roger Smith

Flood flooding is the worst kind. (guess they meant stream flooding?)

I would say 3-6 in rains likely later today in a corridor from Allentown PA to about Raritan Bay, 2-4 in would be a general result in metro NYC and LI, CT. Later in week only looks to be 1-2 in potential but local max of 3" possible.

SACRuS, top ten NYC Aug rainfalls 18.95 _ 2011 _ 01 12.36 _ 1990 _ 02 10.86 _ 1955 _ 03 10.32 _ 2021 _ 04 9.83 _ 1927 _ 05 9.56 _ 1873 _ 06 9.37 _ 1919 _ 07 9.28 _ 1911 _ 08 9.08 _ 1942 _ 09 8.97 _ 1875 _ 10 ============================= Also, daily records for NYC follow ... <<<< AUGUST >>>> Date __ high max __ high min ___ low max _ low min _____ 24h rain ___ 48h rain (ending date) Aug 01 __100 1933 ___ 82 1917 _______ 68 1923 ____ 59 1895, 1964 ___ 2.85 1878 ___ 3.99 1889 (2.29+1.70) Aug 02 __100 1955 ___ 83 2006 _______ 67 1875 ____57 1875 __________ 2.49 1973 ___ 2.52 1973 Aug 03 __ 97 2005 ___ 78 1975,2006 __ 66 1921 ___ 55 1886, 1927 ____2.71 1946 ___ 3.11 1885 (0.67+2.44) Aug 04 __100 1944 ___ 78 1908,2005 _ 69 1909 ____56 1886 (69 3rd) __ 3.25 1915 __ 3.66 1915 Aug 05 __101 1944 ___ 81 1908 _______ 68 1903 _____56 1886,1912,51 __ 1.44 1884 ___ 3.05 1884 Aug 06 __ 97 1931,55__80 1906,08,18__ 64 1915 ____56 1869 (67) _____ 3.31 1878 ___ 3.31 1878* Aug 07 __104 1918 ___ 82 1918 _______ 64 1975_____57 1994 (75 6th) __ 2.18 1921 ___ 3.65 1990 (2.30+1.35) ^ Aug 08 __ 99 2001 ___ 80 1980 _______ 69 1903 ___ 54 1903 __________ 2.60 1927 ___ 2.60 1927*__ 2.50 2007 (1d) Aug 09 __103 2001 ___ 82 1896,2001 _ 68 1879 ____57 1919, 89 _______4.10 1942 ___ 4.83 1976 (0.93+3.90) Aug 10 __ 98 1891,1949_ 80 1896 ______ 60 1962 ___ 55 1879 (73) ______4.64 1990 ___ 4.70 1990 __ 2.51 2006 (1d) Aug 11 __102 1944 ___ 81 1891,96 ____ 68 1931,33,62_ 56 1962 _________ 2.90 2018 ___ 6.14 1990 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) Aug 12 __ 97 1944 ___ 80 1988 _______ 64 1979 ___ 55 1889 (73) _____ 3.62 1955 ___ 4.90 1989 (1.90+3.00)^ Aug 13 __ 99 2005 ___ 82 1908 ______68 1873,1934_ 55 1930 (73 12th) _2.70 1955 __ 6.32 1955 __ 4.01 1926 (2d)^ Aug 14 __ 99 1988 ___ 84 1908 ______66 1873,1919_ 54 1964 (77) _____5.81 2011 ___ 5.81 2011*_ 3.10" 2005 (1d) Aug 15 __ 97 1988 ___ 81 1988 _______ 66 1992 ____ 54 1964 (80) _____ 1.52 1911 ___ 6.37 2011 Aug 16 __ 96 1944 ___ 79 1938 _______ 65 1883 ___ 55 1880 (73) ______4.80 1909 ___ 4.83 1909 Aug 17 __ 95 1944,2015_ 78 1978,2015 _ 65 1909 ____56 1881^ 1979 ____ 2.86 1974 ___ 5.15 1909 Aug 18 __ 94 1913,87,2002_78 2002______ 62 1874 ___ 55 1915 (73) ______3.95 1879 ___ 4.59 1879 Aug 19 __ 94 1914,66,2002_ 77 1906,2015 _70 1881,1946_ 55 1924 (73 18th) _2.53 1991 _ 3.95 1879** Aug 20 __ 97 1955 ___ 77 1906,83,2015_ 68 1990,2000_ 55 1949 (76) ____4.80 1873 __ 4.89 1873 _ 3.63 1904 (1d). Aug 21 __ 96 1955 ___ 78 1906 _______ 59 2007 ____ 53 1922 (66 22nd) _4.45 2021^___4.84 1873 Aug 22 __ 95 1916 ___ 78 1906 _______ 65 2007 ____ 52 1895 (71) _____ 2.67 2021^___ 7.12 2021 _ 4.32 1888 (2d) Aug 23 __ 92 1916 ___ 77 1906 _______ 63 1930 ____ 51 1923 (72) _____ 3.03 1930 ___ 3.74 2021 3.29 1933 (1.06+2.23) 5.51" 3d (2.22 21st) Aug 24 __ 94 1972 ___ 76 1891 ______ 64 1937,45 __ 52 1890 (65) _____ 3.61 1893 ___ 3.94 1893 __ 2.81 1891 (1.91+0.90) Aug 25 __ 95 1948 ___ 76 1961,98 ___ 64 1873 _____ 52 1940 (69) _____ 1.86 1982 ___ 3.61 1893** Aug 26 __103 1948 ___ 78 1948,2021__ 61 1940 _____ 53 1887 (67) ____ 3.24 1908 ___ 4.13 1941 (1.83+2.30) Aug 27 __101 1948 ___ 79 1948 _______ 62 1927 ____ 50 1885 (65) _____ 4.16 1971 ___ 4.16 1971*__ 2.88 2011 (1d) Aug 28 __100 1948 ___ 79 2018 _______ 60 1940 ____ 50 1885 (68) ____ 3.99 2011 ___ 6.87 2011 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) ^^ Aug 29 __ 99 1953 ___ 81 2018 _______ 63 1903 ____ 50 1965,82,86 ___ 2.68 2002 ___ 3.99 2011**_ 2.85 1983 (2d) Aug 30 __ 98 1953,73 _ 78 1973,2018 __ 62 1911 ____ 50 1965 (70) _____ 2.18 2008 ___ 2.68 2002**_ 2.37 1872 (2d) Aug 31 __100 1953____ 78 1953 _______ 59 1911 _____ 50 1976 (72,74) ___ 3.76 1911 ___ 4.61 1911 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 6th-7th 2.77" 1978 (1.78+0.99) .. 1878 no additional rain 7th. ^ 12th _ _ 3.34"R 1926 (1d). 4.01" 12th-13th. ^ 17th max for 1881 was 67, for 1979 68 next day ^ 21st rainfall prev record 4.19" 1888 (broken 2021) ^ 22nd rainfall prev record 1.85" 1994 (broken 2021) also prev 2d rain 4.32" 1888 ^^ 27th-28th 2d rain 1971 5.96 (4.16+1.80) ________________________________________________________________

You're still in second, wxallannj did widen the gap, the rest of us are going to have a great contest now to end, I would say.

Table of forecasts August 2024 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 _________________+3.2 _ +2.9 _ +2.5 __ +2.4 _ +2.8 _ +3.1 __ +3.0 _ +2.1 _ +1.4 RJay ____________________________+3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.7 __ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 Tom ____________________________ +2.9 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 __ +1.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.2 __ +2.5 _ +1.9 _ +0.6 BKViking ________________________+2.4 _ +2.8 _ +2.8 __ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________________+2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 __ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.7 wxdude64 ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +0.3 _ +0.2 __ -0.5 _ +0.6 _ +1.8 Scotty Lightning _________________+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ____ Consensus ________________ +2.0 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.7___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 so_whats_happening ____________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.1 ___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +3.2 DonSutherland1 _________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.4 __ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.9 StormchaserChuck1 ____________ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +0.8 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 Roger Smith ____________________ +1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 rainsucks ____ (-1%) ____________ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ 0.0 _ +1.7 _ +0.9 __ +1.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.2 ____ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS ________________________ -0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ -0.8 _ -0.1 _ -0.5 ___ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ +1.5 Persistence _ (July 2024) ______________+2.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 _____ -0.4 _ +1.5 _ -1.0 ______ +0.6 _ +5.6 _ +2.7 ==================================== Color coding for warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for NYC, BOS, PHX, and SEA.

Late penalties are fairly lenient now in contest, apologies to BKViking as I was very late getting to table of forecasts in July and did not realize until too late no entry was received, I probably would send a request if I was not so late on task. Anyway, take pro-rated scores as better indication of real contest results, if you don't enter all.

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-July 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 532 _514 _530 __1576 __ 426 _532 _438 __1396 _2972 __440 _504 _566 _1510 ____ 4482 ___ Consensus _________504 _508 _530 __1542 __ 412_498 _446 __ 1356 _2898 __378 _482 _496__1356____4254 rainsucks _______________ 586 _582 _498__1666 __ 383 _466 _428 __1277 _ 2943 __328 _440 _434 _1202____ 4145 DonSutherland1 ________ 492 _536 _550 __1578 __ 420 _446 _404 __1270 _ 2848 __428 _428 _430 __1286____ 4134 so_whats_happening ___ 478 _490 _524 __1492 __ 411 _462 _404 __1277 _ 2769 __ 414 _ 416 _512 __1342 ____ 4111 RJay ____________________540 _537 _478 __1555 __ 404 _475 _372 __ 1251 _ 2806 __364 _475 _443 __1282____ 4088 Scotty Lightning ________489 _435 _455 __1379 __ 290 _519 _475 __1284 _ 2663 __ 389 _433 _507 __1329 ____ 3992 hudsonvalley21 _________470 _434 _456 __1360 __ 398 _490 _460 __1348 _2708 __388 _408 _446 __1242____ 3950 Roger Smith ____________ 440 _428 _344 __1212 __ 440 _539 _408 __1387 _2599 __364 _502 _420 __1286 ____ 3885 Tom ____________________ 460 _446 _472 __1378 __ 332 _456 _410 __1198 _2576 __ 340 _452 _492 __1284 ____ 3860 RodneyS _______________ 324 _444 _474 __1242 __ 289 _ 378 _466 __1133 _ 2375 __470 _362 _532 __1364____ 3739 wxdude64 ______________ 319 _359 _453 __1131 __ 350 _343 _403 __1096 _ 2227 __ 421 _417 _491 __ 1329 ____ 3556 BKViking (6/7) __________436 _432 _450 __1318 __ 291 _389 _333 __1013 _ 2331 __ 316 _ 431 _405 __ 1152 ____ 3483 (4064) --------------------- Persistence _____________ 538 _496 _524 __1558 __254 _456 _402 __ 1112 _2670 _ 078 _366 _446 __ 890 ____ 3560 Normal __________________ 270 _272 _368 __ 910 __ 246 _364 _352 __962 _1872 __ 352 _374 _538 __1264 ____ 3136 ------------------ Stormchaser Chuck (5/7)_256 _300 _320 __876 __252 _242 _240 __734 __1610___ 190 _300 _300 __ 790 ____ 2400 (3360) Rhino16 (4/7) ____________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ____ 2154 (3770) George BM (1/7) ___________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 _______ 590 (4130) pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal but back near last in forecaster group after a relatively poor July. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 ______ 1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 _____ 0 rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 3* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ______ 0 so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2^ ___1* ____2 _____ 2 _Apr,Jul Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^____0 ______0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 1 _ Jun Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2**__0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 (George BM) _____________0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 35 qualified (28 for warmest, 7 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1. * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __8-2 ___ 8.0 - 1.5 Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0__6-2 ___ 4.5 - 2 Rhino16 ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 4.5 - 0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __ 4-0 ___3.0 - 0 wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0__ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1 RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 ___ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 ___ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 ___ 2-0 ___ 2.0 - 0 Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 2-2 ___ 1.5 - 2.0 ___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 ___ 2-2 RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-2 BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1 Tom, swh ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0

+1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 _ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +2.0

Just a reminder for regular entrants, forecast contest is open and deadline is Wed nite.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z August 1st

Glasgow and Jordan MT 109 on Wed 24, record for Glasgow (108 in 1929). Turning cooler in stages in BC, but getting windy, several fires will be flaring up as a result.

Smoke on map over WA-OR-ID is from fires in those same states (several bad ones in Cascades of WA, Blues of OR), BC-AB smoke is drifting east and later south into high plains region. Despite living close to both sources, we have been in and out of smoke for days, AQI ranges from 50 to 200 as a result. A few raindrops with remnant cells over us at 1100h (18z) but no measurable rain, so now dry for 20 days locally. Cloud broke for afternoon and back up into mid 90s as a result. We are going to get some relief by Thursday here. Core of heat will then shift to central plains states. It was 107F on Sunday at Spokane WA breaking a record of 103F set in 1905. Today's high of 100F did not break record (103, 1938). Lows in 70s are unusual for region too.

New weekly records were set for mean minimum and mean daily for weeks ending June 23-25 (but not for mean max), and second to fourth place values were noted for weeks ending may 28, June 22 and 26, and July 11-12. Rainfall for weeks ending July 17 to 20 were close to a record high value but did not set a record in any weekly interval including total of 3.64" July 13-17.

19 days no rain at my location, average max so far 95 F. Probably going to be warmest month on record' high 102F on 20th.

July is the only month with >100F highs at NYC that are not daily records. June peaks at 98F and August 100F for non records. This is the full list of 100F days at NYC, showing which ones were not daily records ... 99F in may 1962 did not quite start the listing, nor did several 99F in June 1925 nor one in June 1956. None of dates mentioned saw a second place value above 96F but 99F tied 1943,52 for 06-25 had a 97 (1923) in third place. List starts with first 100 and ends with last 100 of year but includes days with records below 100F. Date ___ Record ___ Also 100+F (or second - third if record tied) 06-26 _ 100 1952 _____________ 96 1943,49,63 06-27 _ 101 1966 ____________98 1943 _ June's max non-record 06-28 __ 96 1969,91 _____________94 1870,80,1963 06-29 _ 101 1934 _____________97 1959,91 06-30 __ 99 1964 _____________97 1945 07-01 _ 100 1901 ___________99 1964 07-02 _ 100 1901,66 ________98 1941 07-03 _ 103 1966 __ 100 1898, 1911 07-04 _ 102 1949 __________ 99 1919 07-05 _ 101 1999 __________ 99 2010 07-06 _ 103 2010 __ 101 1999 07-07 _ 100 2010 ____________98 1986, 93 07-08 _ 100 1993 ____________98 1890, 1937 07-09 _ 106 1936 __ 101 1993, 100 1937 07-10 _ 102 1936,93 _100 1937 07-11 __ 98 1988 ______________97 1911,93 07-12 __ 99 1966 _______________ 96 1908 07-13 _ 101 1966 _______________ 96 1952,54,94 07-14 _ 100 1954 ______________ 96 1952,95 07-15 _ 102 1995 __________98 1983 07-16 __ 99 1980 __________98 1879, 1977 07-17 _ 100 1953 __________98 1955, 68, 99 07-18 _ 101 1953 _ 100 1977, 2012 07-19 _ 102 1977 __________ 98 1930 07-20 _ 101 1980 _ 100 1991 07-21 _ 104 1977 _ 102 1930,80,91 .. 100 1926, 57 _ __ highest 2nd place values (102F) 07-22 _ 104 2011 _ 101 1957 .. 100 1926, 55 07-23 _ 100 2011 ________ 99 1955, 91 07-24 __ 97 1999,2010 _____________ 94 1910,33,87 07-25 __ 97 1999 _________________ 95 1987 07-26 __ 98 1940 _____________97 1966 07-27 __ 98 1940,63 _________ 97 2005 07-28 __ 97 1892,1931,49,99 ___96 1993 07-29 __ 99 1949 ____________ 97 1892 07-30 __ 98 1917,33,40,88 _____96 1954 07-31 _ 102 1933 _ 100 1917 08-01 _ 100 1933 __________ 98 1917, 1999 08-02 _ 100 1955 __________ 98 1917,33,75 08-03 __ 97 2005 ________________96 1926,36,75,2006 08-04 _ 100 1944 _______________ 96 1993,95 08-05 _ 101 1944 _ 100 1955 __ tied for Aug second highest for date 08-06 __ 97 1931,55 _____________ 96 1918 08-07 _ 104 1918 _________99 1924,1931,2001 08-08 __ 99 2001 _________________96 1980 08-09 _ 103 2001 _ 100 1949 __ tied for Aug second highest for date 08-10 __ 98 1891, 1949 ________97 1944, 2001 08-11 _ 102 1944 _________99 1949 08-12 __ 97 1944 _________________96 2002,05 08-13 __ 99 2005 __________98 2002 08-14 __ 99 1988 _________________96 1918, 2005 08-15 __ 97 1988 _________________ 96 1938 08-16 __ 96 1944 ___________________ 95 1938 08-17 __ 95 1944,2015 _______________ 94 1922, 1987, 2002 08-18 __ 94 1913, 1987, 2002 _____________ 92 1956, 95 08-19 __ 94 1914, 1966, 2002 _____________ 92 1872, 1978 08-20 __ 97 1955 _________________96 1983 08-21 __ 96 1955 ___________________ 95 1869, 1937, 1995 08-22 __ 95 1916 ______________________94 1976 08-23 __ 92 1916 _____________________________ 91 1918 08-24 __ 94 1972 _______________________ 93 1898, 1947 08-25 __ 95 1948 ____________________94 1969, 93 08-26 _ 103 1948 _______________ 96 1993 08-27 _ 101 1948 _____________ 97 1980 08-28 _ 100 1948 ___________ 98 1953 08-29 __ 99 1953 ________________ 95 1948, 73 08-30 __ 98 1953,73 _____________ 95 1921 08-31 _ 100 1953 _______________96 2010 09-01 __ 97 1953 _______________ 96 2010 09-02 _ 102 1953 ______________97 1944 09-03 __ 99 1929 _______________96 1921,73 09-04 __ 97 1929 __________________ 94 1961 09-05 __ 94 1985 ___________________ 93 1961 09-06 __ 97 1881 ___________________ 94 1983 09-07 _ 101 1881 _____________________ 93 1919 (09-10 __ 99 1931,1993 ________ 96 2013) ==================== Interesting to note, a long stretch of lower highs Aug 17-25 with a recovery to Sep 7.

Final scoring for July 2024 based on data in previous post. FORECASTER ________________DCA_NYC_BOS__ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTALS Roger Smith__________________82 _ 98 _ 92 __ 272 __ 46 _ 98 _ 46 __ 190 _ 462 _ 66 _ 84 _92 __ 242 ____ 704 so_whats_happening ________ 94 _ 98 _ 84 __ 276 __ 56 _ 94 _ 60 __ 210 _ 486 _ 86 _ 32 _ 68 __ 186 ____ 672 wxallannj ____________________ 98 _ 90 _ 84 __ 272 __ 58 _ 90 _ 48 __ 196 _ 468 _ 68 _ 24 _ 92 __ 184 ____ 652 DonSutherland1 _____________ 86 _ 98 _ 98 __ 282 __ 50 _ 86 _ 60 __ 196 _ 478 _ 82 _ 30 _ 50 __ 162 ____ 640 Scotty Lightning _____________86 _ 98 _ 92 __ 276 __ 42 _ 90 _ 60 __ 192 _ 468 _ 82 _ 34 _ 56 __ 172 ____ 640 ___ Consensus _____________ 94 _ 98 _ 98 __ 290 __ 46 _ 90 _ 48 __ 184 _ 474 _ 68 _ 32 _ 62 __ 162 ____ 636 RodneyS _____________________56 _ 78 _ 80 __ 214 __ 94 _ 82 _ 60 __ 236 _ 450 _ 90 _ 14 _ 68 __ 172 ____ 622 wxdude64 ___________________54 _ 64 _ 66 __ 184 __ 98 _ 62 _ 86 __ 246 _ 430 _ 78 _ 26 _ 74 __ 178 ____ 608 George BM ___________________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 _ 42 __ 160 _ 442 _ 98 _ 18 _ 32 __ 148 ____ 590 Tom __________________________98 _ 86 _ 86 __ 270 __ 30 _ 74 _ 32 __ 136 _ 406 _ 66 _ 32 _ 62 __ 160 ____ 566 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 68 _ 84 _ 80 __ 232 __ 44 _ 78 _ 36 __ 158 _ 390 _ 62 _ 40 _ 60 __ 162 ____ 552 ___ Normal ___________________46 _ 58 _ 62 __ 166 __ 92 _ 70 _ 80 __ 242 _ 408 _ 88 _ 00 _ 46 __ 134 ____ 542 Stormchaser Chuck _________ 74 _ 86 _ 86 __ 246 __ 22 _ 98 _ 58 __ 178 _ 424 _ 44 _ 06 _ 36 __ 086 ____ 510 RJay _________________________ 80 _ 66 _ 64 __ 210 __ 18 _ 56 _ 10 __ 084 _ 294 _ 42 _ 48 _ 66 __ 156 ____ 450 rainsucks ____________________ 70 _ 56 _ 52 __ 178 ___ 02 _ 64 _ 18 __ 084 _ 262 _ 52 _ 44 _ 54 __ 150 ____ 412 __ Persistence (June 2024) __86 _ 80 _ 80 __ 246 __ 26 _ 60 _ 48 __ 134 _ 380 _ 00 _100 _ 26 __ 126 ____ 506 ================== Color coded for high and low forecasts. Normal is lowest for DCA, NYC, BOS and DEN. ---------------------------- Extreme forecast report DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL no extreme forecasts ORD and IAH were wins for wxdude64 with lowest forecasts. DEN was a win for George BM with lowest forecast. Counts as a loss for Normal. PHX and SEA were wins for Roger S with highest forecasts (SEA shared wxallannj). Annual updates to follow ...

Seasonal max contest _ scoring update (a) Forecasts FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning __________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____96 __ 104 _ 118 ____ 100 _ 121 __ 92 wxdude64 ________________ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 101 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 104 _ 118 __ 98 Roger Smith _______________102 _ 100 _ 100 ____101 __ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 __ 97 rainsucks __________________102 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 104 __ 102 _ 107 ____ 104 _ 120 __99 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 95 ___ 98 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 98 Rhino16 ____________________101 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 102 __ 102 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 115 __ 98 ___ Consensus ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 ____99 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97 DonSutherland1 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 96 ___ 97 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 97 Tom _______________________ 101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 99 ___102 _ 106 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 96 RJay _______________________100 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 100 __ 101 _ 105 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ______100 __ 98 __100 ____ 97 ___ 99 _ 102 ______98 _ 119 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________99 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 96 ___ 97 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 97 wxallannj __________________98 __ 98 __ 96 _____ 99 ___ 97 _ 102 _____101 _ 120 __ 95 __ max to date (Aug 21) __104 _ 95 __ 98 _____ 97 __ 100 __102 _____102 _ 118 _ 98 (b) Errors to date underlined-italic errors are subject to increase as values so far are above forecast. Sum of "accumulated non-reversible error" appears after error totals. FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL ___ Acc n-rev err Scotty Lightning __________ 1 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 4 __16 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 6 ____ 38 ______ 10 wxdude64 ________________ 2 __ 7 __ 4 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 0 __0 ____ 24 _______ 2 Roger Smith ______________ 2 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 7 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 25 _______ 3 rainsucks _________________ 2 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 7 __ 2 __ 5 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 27 _______ 2 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 3 __ 6 __ 1 ____ 2 __ 2 __ 1 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 18 _______ 7 Rhino16 ___________________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 5 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 0_____ 25 _______ 8 ___ Consensus ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 20 _______ 6 DonSutherland1 ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 16 _______ 9 Tom _______________________ 3 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 2 __ 2 __4 ___ 3 __ 0 __ 2 _____19 _______ 8 RJay_______________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 3 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 22 _______ 9 so_whats_happening ______ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 1 _____16 _______ 6 RodneyS ___________________ 5 __ 4 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 0 __ 1 _____18 ______ 14 wxallannj___________________ 6 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 2 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 2 __ 3 _____22 ______ 15 =================================== Scoring will be updated whenever new data require, and table will be moved to Aug and eventually Sep contests. It appears to be a very close contest so far.

Toronto had 3.29" rain on Tuesday, following 1.18" on Monday. This was a top five for July daily rainfall in 184 years of records, and it followed another daily record set on 10th (1.76"). It resulted in urban flooding and some water rescues from partially submerged cars. It was not quite as heavy a one- or two- day rainfall as July 7-8 2013, or a one-day record set in 1897 (on 28th). July 2024 is already third wettest July behind only 1841 and 2013. It will only take a normal amount of rain in next two weeks to reach first place. It will take about half of what has already fallen to equal wetter months of Sep 1843 and may 1894. Will keep track of where July 2024 finishes up relative to record values.

..Anomalies so far in July ... ___________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (7-17) __ anom for 1-16 ______ +4.8 _ +3.8 _ +4.0 ___ +0.2 _ +3.5 _ +0.8 ___ +0.7 _ +6.3 _ +5.9 (7-17) __ (p anom 1-31) ______ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 (7-22) _ updates July anom__ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 (7-26) _ updates July anom__ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ -1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _ +2.5 (8-01) _ final anoms __________+2.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____-0.4 _+1.5 _ -1.0 _____+0.6 _ +5.6 _ +2.7 (17) _ Projections are based on +1 anoms for rest of July in east, central, and +3 to +4 in west. (22) _ Adjusted ORD, IAH and DEN down. (26) _ Adjusted IAH and SEA down. (01) _ Final anomalies posted. Scoring adjusted.

Thanks for all data posted about July 1936. There are stories of horrific urban death tolls in Chicago, NYC, and Toronto as well as lots of other places in those pre-A/C days and after a sizzling 105-110 day, no relief even if lows dipped a bit below 80, inside temps were likely well into 90s after a few days of it ... and stories of people sleeping on rooftops and in parks for duration of severe heat. Toronto set high min records only broken once since (78F on several of days of 105F interval). Also to give further idea of upper driving forces in July 1936, Toronto also had its sunniest and driest July on record. It basically did not rain at all and averaged 12 hrs sun per day. Drought must have been extreme in Ontario and upstate NY at least. It was quite warm also in may (a top 20 mean for Toronto and NYC) before a relatively cool June. Upper ridge probably peaking around 603-605 dm over SD-IA early in July, flattened a bit to allow heat to spread east, then retrogressed and a trof deepened over east coast later in July. Some further oscillations in August as heat was unrelenting in central plains states and showed up again briefly in eastern US and s Ontario early August (and again around Sept 18). 1854 was apparently a less extreme copy of 1936. Caswell's Providence RI journal talks about forest fire smoke clouds darkening skies around same time as 97-98 max in Toronto mid-July. As to winter 1936-37, you'll probably find in detail, very cold at times late NOV, milder last part of DEC and all JAN, still quite mild FEB, colder in march -- betting most of 20" snow occurred at bookends of a mild winter. Another summer with extreme heat in northeast US was 1911, any interesting runs of 100+ for you?

I would be interested in seeing data from July 1936 in your region. Toronto and New York City both set their all-time highs in July 1936 (Toronto 105F July 8, 9 and 10; NYC 106 July 9). A lot of other locations in eastern and central U.S. set very high records that month also. When it was reported that DCA matched a string of three hot days set in 1930, I started to wonder why 1936 wasn't in the mix (although NYC only went two days >100). The heat was generally intense from around 7th to mid-month (and also around Aug 3-5). A location in ND (Steele) was 120F and it exceeded 110 in parts of west-central Canada also, although July 1937 produced a hotter reading of 113F in SK and June 30, 2021 broke that national record in BC at 120F in Lytton BC -- it was 45C (113F) at my place so for a day I was living in a location tying our national record -- town of Lytton (pop 1200) was burned to ground by train-track-spark-induced fires on day of record warm max). There has been very little rebuilding yet because of insurance wrangles and archaeology issues (academics wanting to sift soil for cultural relics pre-settlement days). Not that there is any rush to live in this notorious hot spot anyway. On similar topic, a toasty 100F at 1230 local time as we endure day seven of our heat wave. I am by no means in a hot spot here, we live halfway upslope from Columbia River to alpine regions at around 3400' asl, it is probably around 105F in valley now.

WE JEBWALK !!! new contest leader Jebman _ scroll back two posts, scoring table updated. ... only five of 29 forecasters predicted an average 102 or over, current average is 102.5 for four locations. ... only one forecaster carries no expired forecasts (GeorgeBm) ... only four can now win contest (Jebman, George, RogerS, Rhino16) first of all, to overtake Jebman you need unexpired forecasts, of larger value than his differentials ... 1, 1, -1, 0. If your differentials are same at a given station, you have no advantage. A differential of zero at BWI is no advantage now either. This is a list of people with larger differentials than our leader, to use up and gain advantages. (Figure in brackets is your potential advantage, each degree you "receive" gives you a two-point gain vs Jebman, your max potential gain is twice number in brackets.) Same is true for you vs any forecaster in lists below. For example, at IAD, I have a +1 on Rhino16 for a potential gain of 2, but to realize it IAD has to reach 105F or above. For outcomes between current 101F at IAD and eventual 102 to 104, a smaller differential is no advantage over a larger one. You start gaining advantages over field when their forecasts are surpassed. Differentials larger than Jebman at each location DCA _ George 4 (+3) _ this effectively removes DCA from future relevance to contest unless George can hit other targets below since score differential is 26 and DCA only gives George a potential 6 point gain. Also, Jebman moves 2 points further ahead all other forecasters if DCA goes to 105F or above. IAD _ George 9 (+8), RogerS 4 (+3), Rhino16 3 (+2), NorthBaltiZen 2 (+1) __ George can recover up to 16 points vs Jebman, and bring total differential to four (before considering two stations below) if DCA worked out also. BWI _ George 6 (+6), RogerS 2 (+2) RIC _ George 10 (+10), RogerS 6 (+6), Rhino16 3 (+3), RickinBaltimore 2 (+2), yoda, katabatic, midAtlwx 1 (+1). Yoda could finish second to Jebman for a RIC 102F outcome. Last four in RIC list are too far behind Jebman now to utilize small advantages, but would move up by 2 or 4 points vs field if RIC goes to 102 or 103. NBZ is also too far behind to use a 2 point advantage at IAD but would finish second in contest if IAD hits 103F and no other changes took place. Safe zone for Jebman appears to be up to 106 103 106 103 At 106 103 106 103 scores would total Jebman 7 RogerS 9 Rhino16 10 George 21 If any station goes above 106-103-106-103 and rest hit, at that point RogerS could pass Jebman, and has further one degree (2 pt) advantage on Rhino16 at IAD after 104F, and advantages at BWI and RIC also. So Rhino16 can only win at one outcome (I think) and that is 104 104 104 104. (could be one or two successful outcomes nearby also) Going above 106-103-106-103 would mean only RogerS or George could win. Going past 106-105-106-107 is point where RogerS no longer enjoys any part of 12 point advantage as per above, so any addition of total of 6 degrees to that set (as an example 107-107-107-109) would create a tie broken by larger differentials, and any total of 7 or greater would result in a George win. Obviously if George makes targets, nobody will be left alive to discuss it anyway. (jk) So if current heat is ever surpassed in summer 2024 (many hope not) then those are possible contest results.

Large hail signature on that purple cell on radar, look out lower hudson valley. Could also go tornadic.

If you ever wondered, what's it like in Spokane, Boise or Salt Lake City in summer, this is about it, with a bit of added humidity. Around my location, we are into day six of 100+ (we ducked out to coast for days 2-5 for nice 85F relief) and as high as 105F several of recent days, we don't get really low dew points like Arizona, Nevada or southern Utah with the 115/39 sorts of readings, we get 100/60 to 65 fairly often and dew points can be into low 70s if hot air comes in over moist forests as was the case here before about July 5th (fire danger rating was low here two weeks ago, is now extreme as forests have dried out rapidly, but no large fires yet, just spot fires easily put down). If we stay in this heat another week as depicted in our region, we're going to see larger fires in PAC NW region and so you'll be seeing evidence by August or September in terms of smoke layers aloft. So far only large fires seem to be in Utah.

... incoming ... 103F at BWI already. Look for table edit by 8 pm, I need RIC to get in on this action.