Roger Smith

Nov 1950 also started with max temps in low to mid 80s and went on to produce a second memorable November event, the "Great Appalachian storm" of Nov 24-26 (I know people here are generally familiar with its legacy of strong wind gusts at coast and heavy snow inland, CLE had 30" and Toronto 13" for its Nov daily record). Another intense northward moving NOV storm was Nov 9-10, 1913. Like this year, 1913 and 1950 were close to lunar declination maxima. (occurring every 18.6 years)

I think it will be a rather variable pattern for eastern regions with some brief "good" wintry episodes and also some near-record-warm spells alternating, trending to a cold early spring. Expect heavy snowfalls inland PAC NW into CO-WY and redevelopment of those storms near OK-KS border regions tracking into Ohio valley and inland northeast. Severe cold will be frequent in western Canada, n plains states and a modified version will occasionally sweep into GL and interior NEast.

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Oct 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 754 _692 _760 __2206 __ 567 _752 _652 __1971 _4177 __597 _629 _750 _1976 ___ 6153 ___ Consensus _________ 722 _694 _756 __2172 __ 551_718 _642 __ 1911 _4083 __522 _599_704 _1825 ___ 5908 DonSutherland1 _________720 _730 _774 __2224 __ 573 _638 _554 __1765 _3989 __632 _628 _580 _1840 ___ 5829 RJay ____________________ 728 _679 _670 __2077 __ 603 _719 _610 __1932 _4009 __543 _599 _627 __1769 ___ 5778 Scotty Lightning ________ 695 _607 _693 __1995 __ 437 _779 _713 __1929 _3924 __488 _533 _759 __1780 ___ 5704 so_whats_happening ___ 694 _672 _750 __2116 __ 542 _ 682 _574 __1798 _3914 __ 535 _525 _662 __1722 ___ 5636 hudsonvalley21 _________ 648 _572 _644 __1864 __ 557 _720 _686 __1963 _3827 __ 556 _527 _684 __1767 ___ 5594 Tom _____________________676 _620 _698 __1994 __ 450 _668 _596 __1714 _3708 __ 462 _535 _748 __1745 ___ 5453 Roger Smith _____________652 _608 _536 __1796 __ 561 _719 _550 __1830 _ 3626 __ 524 _669 _618 __ 1811 ___ 5437 rainsucks (9/10) ________ 733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 __ 1584 ___5409 (6010) RodneyS ________________552 _684 _740 __1976 __ 416 _498 _618 __ 1532 _ 3508 __ 634 _439 _768 __1841 ___5349 BKViking (9/10) _________ 640 _588 _652 __1880 __ 422 _601 _539 __1562 _ 3442 __447 _ 531 _ 619 __1597 ___5039 (5599) wxdude64 ______________ 463 _517 _663 __1643 __ 442 _479 _523 __1444 _ 3087 __465 _485 _727 __1677 ___4764 --------------------- Persistence _____________ 736 _654 _724 __2114 __439 _694 _578 __ 1711 _3825 _ 260 _609 _664 __1543 ___ 5368 Normal __________________522 _484 _614 __1620 __440 _528 _464 __1432 _3052 _ 398 _388 _822 __ 1608 ___4660 Stormchaser Chuck (7/10)_424_438_472__1334 __397 _388 _352 __1137 __2471 __322 _440 _416 __ 1178 ___ 3649 (5213) Rhino16 (4/10) ___________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ___ 2154 (5385) George BM (1/10) _________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (5900) pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal and is advancing into lower portion of forecaster group. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 _____1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 ____ 0 DonSutherland1 _________ 1 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 4 *___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____2 ___ 3* ___1 ___ 2^____ 1 _____ 0 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ ____ 2 *____2 _ Mar, Sep Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 3^____ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith _____________0 ___ 2^ __ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 3^ ___1* ____3 ____ 3 _Apr,Jul,Aug rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____ 1 _ Feb RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2**__0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1* ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 1 _ Oct Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______1 _ Jun George BM ______________ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 61 qualified (45 for warmest, 16 for coldest) ... ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1, Oct 8-1 * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER ___________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ________________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 __ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning _________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 __9-0 ___ 8.0 - 0 Roger Smith ______________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0 RodneyS _________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1*__7-1 ___ 7.0 - 0.5 ___ Normal _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 _ 1-0 __7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 6-1 ___ 4.0 - 1.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4*-1 __ 6-3 ___ 5.0- 3.0 Rhino16 __________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 DonSutherland1 __________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0__ 5-0 ___ 4.5 - 0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0 wxdude64 _______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 _ 0-1 *__ 4-1 ___ 4.0 - 0.5 RJay _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-1 Tom, swh _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __ 0-0

+3.4 _ +3.7 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.7

I would certainly note it and discuss alternate scoring result but contest will be "settled" as of Jan 1st count report.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Nov 1st

By end of today, dry spell will rank t5 ... Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ _02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________ t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____ t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t05 ___ 2024 ___ 26 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 25 ___ t09 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t09 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________ t 11 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____ t 11 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t 11 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________ t 11 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________ Note 9 of 14 listed are in fall (Sep-Nov). Dry spells of 24+ days occur on an average every 11 years, longest span without one was 1885 to 1909 (25 years), second longest was 2002 to 2023 (22 years). Greatest frequency was 5 in 21 years (1922 to 1942) and 4 in 18 years (1963 to 1980). ________x_____________x______xx________xxx__________x__x__x____x________x___x____________x__ ..........1884.............1910........1922,24....1939,41,42......1963,68,73,80........1995..2001 ...........2024 June 1949 was also very dry, its lone .02" fall broke up an "extended" dry spell so it does not join list for 24+ days. Five different 24-day dry spells were in progress Oct 4-6.

There was a strong tropical storm on the east coast in early Nov 1861, not an election year but shows potential for one to disrupt an election I suppose. I expect final count to be 16/11/4 or 5, don't think the season is done yet. Nov-Dec 1887 had five storms. Average for Nov is barely 1.0.

I posted a list of longest NYC dry spells yesterday, now tied 10th longest: Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ _02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________ t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____ t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t08 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t08 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________ t 10 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____ t 10 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t 10 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________ t 10 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________ t_10 ___ 2024 ___ 24 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 23 ___ It will only take five additional days for Oct 2024 to reach second place behind 36-day 1924. 1973 dry spell was followed by a record rainfall on Oct 29, 1973. 1963 dry spell was part of record dry October (0.14").

All 80F days at NYC this late in the season (included 78 and 79): Oct 21 __ 84_1920 ... 83_1947 ... 80_1949,63,79 ... 79_2024 ... 78_1915,2017 Oct 22 __ 88_1979 ... 83_1920 ... 81_2024 ... 78_1975 Oct 23 __ 85_1947 ... 78_1979, 2007 Oct 24 __ 79_2001 Oct 25 __ 79_1963 Oct 26 __ 78_1963,64 Oct 27 __ 82_1963 ... 78_1947 Oct 28 __ 83_1919 ... 80_2023 ... 79_1984 ... 78_1946 Oct 29 __ 78_1971 Oct 30 __ 82_1946,61 ... 79_1950 Oct 31 __ 81_1946 Nov 1 __ 85_1950 ... 81_1974 Nov 2 __ 83_1950 ... 79_1982 Nov 3 __ 79_2003 ... 78_1990 Nov 4 __ 78_1975 Nov 5-14 __ max values 78 (5th 1961, 7th 1938) Nov 15 __ 80_1993 (not included, 77, 76, 77, 76 Oct 26-29, 1989; 76, 77 Oct 22-23 1900; 73, 76 Nov 1-2 1929; 1994 had a long warm spell Oct 29 to Nov 9: 67, 75, 73, 66, 58, 70, 76, 73, 70, 61, 70, 70 =========================================== Also, as to length of dry spell (now at 23 days Sep 30 - Oct 22 2024) is into top twenty (t14) for NYC (no measurable precip): (second list on right has a limited total precip basis to show almost dry spells, in some cases these include members of the first list ... and Oct 2024 would need to record .15" or less by Oct 29 to start appearing on second list, and would reach first place if the total precip by Nov 15 was .23" or less ... criterion for "extended dry spell" is an average of .01" per two days or less. From the data shown, you can tell that .01" of rain on Nov 14, 1924 was the only precip in a 44-day interval. The one longer "extended dry spell" in summer 1995 had somewhat more intrusive small amounts of rain but included 24 and 12 day absolute dry spells. The third entry (Oct 3 to Nov 14 1952) had frequent very light precip amounts in a generally cold pattern turning mild near its conclusion. It was not impressive for absolute drought. Looking at the absolute dry spells, this one will reach second place if it holds up to Oct 28th (29 days), and would be first if it gets to Nov 5 (37 days). Last year there was a 13-day dry spell Nov 8-20 that completed a 21-day "extended dry spell" starting October 31st. The 2024 absolute dry spell is shown in its current location, to be edited in future days. ____ ABSOLUTE DRY SPELLS ________________ EXTENDED DRY SPELLS _______ Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ Rank _ Year ___ Days, amt ___ Duration (longest ADS) _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ 01 ___ 1995 ___ 46 (.18") __ July 29 to Sep 12 (24, 12) _02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 02 ___ 1924 ___ 44 (.01") __ Oct 9 to Nov 21 (36) t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________03 ___ 1952 ___ 43 (.21") __ Oct 3 to Nov 14 (8, 8.) t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____t04___ 1901 ___ 40 (.20") __ Oct 15 to Nov 23 (16, 11) t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t04___ 1949 ___ 40 (.12") __ May 27 to July 5 (19, 14) t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ t06 ___ 1874 ___ 38 (.14") __ Oct 11 to Nov 17 (10, 9) t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t06 ___ 1905 ___ 38 (.19") __ Oct 21 to Nov 27 (12) t08 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t06 ___ 1910 ____ 38 (.19") __ Sep 7 to Oct 14 (27) t08 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________ t06 ___ 2001 ___ 38 (.17") __ Oct 17 to Nov 23 (17, 15) t 10 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____t10 ___ 1882 ___ 34 (.08") __ July 20 to Aug 22 (13) t 10 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t10 ___ 1899 ___ 34 (.17") __ May 12 to Jun 14 (15) t 10 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________t12 ___ 1881 ___ 33 (.10") __ Aug 8 to Sep 9 (11) t 10 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________t12 ___ 1943 ___ 33 (.13") __ Nov 23 to Dec 25 (13,19) t_10 ___ 2024 ___ 24 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 23 (ranks below prior to new entry) t 14 ___ 1877 ___ 23 ___ Dec 7 to 29 _________t12 ___ 1999 ___ 33 (.16") __ July 3 to Aug 4 (9) t 14 ___ 1991 ___ 23 ___ Oct 18 to Nov 9 _____t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.13") __ Aug 8 to Sep 8 (14) t_14 ___ 2015 ___ 23 ___ Apr 23 to May 15 ___t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.06") __ Sep 24 to Oct 25 (20) _ 17 ___ 1988 ___ 22 ___ Nov 29 to Dec 20 ___t15 ___ 1947 ___ 32 (.11") __ Sep 27 to Oct 28 (12, 9) t 18 ___ 1870 ___ 21 ___ Aug 27 to Sep 16 ____t15 ___ 1963 ___ 32 (.14") __ Sep 30 to Oct 31 (24) t 18 ___ 1895 ___ 21 ___ Feb 9 to Mar 1 ______ t19 ___ 1903 ___ 31 (.11") __ May 7 to June 6 (12,15) t 18 ___ 1904 ___ 21 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 12 ____t19 ___ 1955 ___ 31 (.12") __ Nov 21 to Dec 21 (14) t 18 ___ 1908 ___ 21 ___ Sep 7 to Sep 27 _____t19 ___ 1966 ___ 31 (.09") __ June 18 to July 18 (11) t 18 ___ 1917 ____21 ___ Oct 31 to Nov 20 ____t19 ___ 1989 ___ 31 (.16") __ Nov 29 to Dec 29 (14, 14) t 18 ___ 1962 ___ 21 ___ June 27 to July 17 ___ 23 ___ 1909 ___ 30 (.14") __ Oct 24 to Nov 22 (12) t 24 ___ 1886 ___ 20 ___ Sep 24 to Oct 13 ___ t24 ___ 1877-78_29 (.04") __ Dec 6 to Jan 3 (23) t 24 ___ 1944 ___ 20 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 11 ___ t24 ___ 1880 ___ 29 (.11") __ May 1 to 29 (17) t 24 ___ 1999 ___ 20 ___ May 25 to June 13 __ t24 ___ 1884 ___ 29 (.08") __ Aug 31 to Sep 28 (27) t 27 ___ 1914 ___ 19 ___ Sep 26 to Oct 14 ____t24 ___ 1973 ___ 29 (.03") Sep 30 to Oct 28 (26) t 27 ___ 1917 ___ 19 ___ Sep 9 to 27 _________ t24 ___ 1985 ___ 29 (.14") __ Oct 6 to Nov 3 (10) t 27 ___ 1938 ___ 19 ___ Aug 12 to 30 ________t24 ___ 2001 ___ 29 (.07") Apr 22 to May 20 (26) t 27 ___ 1943 ___ 19 ___ Dec 7 to 25 _________ t30 ___ 1910 ___ 28 (.11") __ June 19 to July 16 (9) t 27 ___ 1949 ___ 19 ___ May 30 to Jun 17 ____t30 ___ 1941 ___ 28 (.00") __ Sep 5 to Oct 2 (28) t 27 ___ 1976 ___ 19 ___ Apr 3 to 21 __________t30 ___ 1964 ___ 28 (.11") __ Oct 22 to Nov 18 (14,10) t 27 ___ 1978 ___ 19 ___ Oct 28 to Nov 15 ____t30 ___ 1976 ___ 28 (.02") __ Nov 1 to 28 (9, 18) t 27 ___ 2007 ___ 19 ___ Aug 22 to Sep 9 ____ t30 ___ 2003 ___28 (.14") __ Jan 7 to Feb 3 (8) ------------------------

1947 and 1963 were similar Octobers (probably a bit warmer) and were followed by wet spells in Nov and cold and snow in Dec (in 1963-64 into Jan). Winters ended with mild, dry Febs and variable marches. Looking at warm Octobers, 2017 was a warm October followed by (in modern terms) a decent winter. Oddly a bad result followed way back in 1879, after a warm October, it was a mild winter. 1971 was followed by a generally mild and snow-deficient winter too. 1900 was followed by a very dry winter, not particularly mild. I will bet Nov is wetter and the winter is not as terrible as the past two. Low bar, but 2024-25 can manage it.

Oscar brings count to 15/10/4, edit in progress.

Nadine boosts count to 14/9/4. Table edited.

Final Scoring for October 2024 based on end of October anomalies as posted above. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__ cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL Stormchaser Chuck ___________ 98 _ 88 _ 90 __ 276 _ 63 _ 68 _ 38 _169 _445 _ 70 _ 82 _ 68 __220 ___ 665 RodneyS _______________________ 62 _ 70 _ 96 __ 228 _ 43 _ 30 _ 60 _ 133 _ 361 _ 54 _ 35 _ 90 __179 ___ 540 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 92 _ 78 _ 98 __ 268 _ 19 _ 60 _ 40 _ 119 _ 387 _ 22 _ 25 _ 90 __ 137 ___ 524 DonSutherland1 ________________62 _ 50 _ 76 __ 188 _ 27 _ 28 _ 24 _ 079 _ 267 _ 70 _ 84 _ 74 __ 228 ___ 495 wxallannj ______________________ 76 _ 60 _ 86 __ 222 _ 23 _ 52 _ 50 _ 125 _ 347 _ 27 _ 29 _ 78 __ 134 ___ 481 Scotty Lightning _______________ 86 _ 60 _ 86 __ 232 _ 13 _ 72 _ 44 _ 129 _ 361 _ 05 _ 10 _ 94 __ 109 ___ 470 RJay ___________________________ 72 _ 56 _ 82 __ 210 _ 39 _ 56 _ 44 _ 139 _ 349 _ 25 _ 20 _ 74 __ 119 ___ 468 ___ Consensus ________________72 _ 58 _ 84 __ 214 _ 23 _ 48 _ 36 _ 107 _ 321 _ 24 _ 25 _ 80 __ 129 ___ 450 Tom ___________________________ 82 _ 68 _ 94 __ 244 _ 06 _ 46 _ 22 _ 074 _ 318 _ 14 _ 13 _ 92 __ 119 ___ 437 BKViking _______________________72 _ 56 _ 82 __ 210 __ 13 _ 44 _ 34 _ 091 _ 301 _ 25 _ 20 _ 82 __ 127 ___ 428 so_whats_happening ___________68 _ 52 _ 82 __ 202 _ 23 _ 48 _ 24 _ 095 _ 297 _ 21 _ 31 _ 76 __ 128 ___ 425 Roger Smith ____________________46 _ 26 _ 48 __ 120 _ 27 _ 36 _ 24 _ 087 _ 207 _ 20 _ 23 _ 80 __ 123 ___ 330 wxdude64 ______________________44 _ 48 _ 88 __ 180 _ 00 _ 08 _ 00 _ 008 _ 188 _ 00 _ 18 _ 90 __ 108 ___ 296 ___ Normal _____________________ 56 _ 40 _ 66 __ 162 _ 00 _ 32 _ 04 _ 036 _ 198_ 00 _ 00 _ 96 __ 096 ___ 294 _____________ ___ Persistence (Sep 2024) _____ 58 _ 32 _ 72 __ 162 _ 79 _ 60 _ 48 _ 187 _ 349 _ 72 _ 85 _ 96 __ 253 ___ 602 ==================================== Extreme Forecast Report DCA (+2.2) and NYC (+3.0) are wins for high forecasts (StormchaserChuck) (+2.3, +2.4) BOS (+1.7) is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+1.8) and a loss for StormchaserChuck (+2.3). ORD (+5.7) is a win for high forecast StormchaserChuck (+3.5). ATL (+3.4) is a win for high forecast Scotty Lightning (+2.0). IAH (+4.8) is a win for high forecast RodneyS (+2.8). DEN (+8.0) is a win for tied high forecasts StormchaserChuck (+5.0) and DonS (+5.0). PHX (+7.1) is also a win for high forecast DonS (+5.5). SEA (+0.2) ... Scotty L (+0.5) gets a win and RodneyS, wxdude64 share a loss (-0.3) (Normal also gets a win). --------------------------------------------- 2024 scoring to follow ...

Anomalies and projections ... _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____ (anom Oct 1-17) ______ +0.3 _ +0.1 _ -0.9 ___ +3.0 _ +1.6 _ +3.7 ___+9.6 _+11.8 _ +0.6 _____ (p anom Oct 1-31) ____ +2.0 _ +2.0 _+1.0 ___ +3.5 _ +2.5 _ +3.5 ___ +4.0 _+6.0 __ 0.0 _____ (anom Oct 1-31) ______ +2.2 _ +3.0 _+1.7 ___ +5.7 _ +3.4 _ +4.8 ___ +8.0 _+7.1 _ +0.2

I've noticed that bogus station several times recently, always sub-20 deg. It's probably a wrongly coded lat-long for a location in the subarctic (27 N 82 W perhaps it's really 82N 27W which would be in n.e. Greenland? or some unintended upper air report? Off topic, but seeing a massive display of aurora borealis here.

Well for me the big "takes" were (a) tornados and (b) Tampa Bay dodged the very costly 12' surge, as far as I know it will be reasonably minor even after winds turn around more westerly -- and despite getting nailed by wind and rain, I would imagine this reduces total damage (and misery) by 90%. And I don't think it came at the expense of worse outcomes to south which were going to be almost same anyway. But I do recall the brief interval when people thought "New Orleans has escaped" before the levees gave way. There is no obvious similar risk but these tremendous rainfalls will no doubt have some severe impacts on valuable property and infrastructure.

28' waves at 42097 (at obs time, est 30 nm e.s.e. current center, reports are every 30 min -- this buoy does not report winds).

I can't see this going truly extratropical before Friday s of SC, but it could be hybrid by 36h. Wasn't there a debate about a possibly too-early call on Sandy being e.t. before NJ landfall? It would only confuse the public who would not get the spreading out wind field concept, personally I think they should retire the whole concept, if it's a hybrid or e.t. storm doing damage then keep issuing advisories until it's not doing damage. Now Kirk is definitely e.t. and has been for 24 ... and it's almost below damage creating criteria (wind gusts in nw Spain were 65-70 on very exposed rocky cliffs and look to be around 60-65 in western France).

Weakening like Tom Brady after 40?

I recall with Katrina there was a 15-20 ft surge (not all of it went into L Pontchartrain but enough did so, to stress the levees). But also I recall a 46' wave report about 30 miles east of the track -- so I would urge people to consider that south of landfall, if the hurricane is still at least cat-3, similar results are possible and 10-15 feet of surge could prove to be conservative, with battering waves on top of a (let's say) 15 to 18 ft surge. I am still leaning towards a relatively northward landfall (Clearwater area) but there's no plausible "good" landfall option at this point.

Japan has taken over tracking Super Typhoon Milton.

I would say track will start to edge slightly north of due east to avoid a landfall on Yucatan but with some of the core scraping along the coast briefly. At some point probably 18-24 hrs from now, possible cat-5 intensity and 910 mb central pressure. Gradually reduces to cat-3 by landfall at a point 25-50 nw of Tampa Bay.

Table of forecasts for October 2024 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stormchaser Chuck ___________ +2.3 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 __ +3.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 ___ +5.0 _ +5.3 _ +1.8 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.8 ___ +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.2 _ +2.3 _ +0.7 Scotty Lightning ________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 Tom ____________________________ +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 ___ +0.6 _ +0.7 _+0.9 __ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.6 wxallannj _______________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.3 __ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.3 RJay ____________________________+0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +2.3 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ Consensus _________________+0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 __+1.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 __+2.4 _ +2.3 _ +1.2 BKViking ________________________+0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +1.0 _ +0.6 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.1 so_whats_happening ___________ +0.6 _ +0.6 _+0.8 ___ +1.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +2.1 _ +2.6 _ +1.4 RodneyS ________________________+0.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.5 _ -0.1 _ +2.8 ___ +4.2 _ +2.8 _ -0.3 DonSutherland1 _________________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +1.8 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 ___ +5.0 _ +5.5 _ +1.5 ___ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ____________________ -0.5 _ -0.7 _ -0.9 ___ +1.7 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.2 wxdude64 ______________________ -0.6 _ +0.4 _ +1.1 ___ -0.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.2 ____ -0.6 _ +1.8 _ -0.3 _____________ ___ Persistence (Sep 2024) _____ +0.1 _ -0.4 _ +0.3 ___ +4.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.2 ___ +5.2 _ +5.4 __ 0.0 =================================== warmest and coldest forecasts color coded. Normal is also coldest for PHX

Milton brings count to 13/8/3 and I edited table above for 13/9/3 as per guidance. (Oct 6 _ count is now 13/9/3 and table is now based on 13/9/4 as guidance strongly suggests further intensification). If season ended 13/9/3 scores would be Retrobuc 98.0 and wkd, tae laidir 97.5. Currently next in scoring is Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan at 90.5; KWx is 86.5 and dww is 88.5. If season ended 13/9/4 scores would be wkd, tae laidir 98.5, and Retrobuc 96.0 13/9/4 _ (Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan at 91.5; KWx is 87.5 and dww is 87.5) Top half of table need more storms to start scoring ... 24 (error 11) storms gives an error deduction of 66 (net score 34) so basically if your forecast was 25 or less and you have a reasonable forecast of H and M, your score is positive. (storm errors count 50% relative to H and M errors) Will get into scoring details later in OCT ... looks like 16/10/4 could be a target, if so, contest winner would be Ed.