jaxjagman

Seems possible and very well could be but the downfall to me is if there is going to be a transition into a LaNina and what and how strong it does end up to be.Last season we we started to see the surgence of a Nino,this year could be reversed,

What the Euro shows today and who know if it's going to be right,would be a band of heavy rain from frontogenesis in our parts.I wouldnt focus on one spot myself right now and plus where is the convection if any?I'm just showing what it could be look like.I still think the bigger rain maker is coming later than sooner.

You can always look into East Asia for at least some pattern,tho this depends on how teleconnections work out,But you can see a trough moving through East China and ridging building on east and west day 3.and then by day 10 you could start to see a trough coming out the west in NA with ridging east and west if you examine the 5H's.Certainly don't work out everytime but it's a good tool to use

Long range both the Euro and GFS shows a standing tall upper level ridge in the east,have to wait and see but both the Euro and GFS are hinting at this other than timing, but the synoptics look quite similar to the past event with the possible entrance of the 300mb jet 120-140kts this would strenghten the LLShear and be quite another flood potential event.

You'd rather have a defined signal outside the COD.Right now to me id rather have the Euro to be right,JMO EDIT:Trouble typing this morning..lol

Looks more active east of the IDL.The Euro even shows it getting more into the WP and even hints at it going into the WH after it goes back into the COD

NMME'S are rolling out,they haven't updated all the way,you have to click on the image to get the right update or you'll be loooking at the old one right now https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 308 AM EST Sat Feb 08 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2020 - 12Z Tue Feb 11 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...Lower Mississippi Valley across the Lower Tennessee Valley into the Southern Appalachians... Strong short wave energy closes off as it drops across Southern CA to a position off the northern Baja Peninsula by the end of Day 3. Short wave energy ejected from the closed low rides along a slow moving front extending from the Southern Appalachians into the Lower MS Valley, providing synoptic scale ascent for heavy rainfall over areas that received flooding in the recent past. There is a good model agreement with the overall setup, increasing confidence in an enhanced flash flood threat in this area. As the closed mid level low settles just off the Southern CA coast during the second half of Day 3, the west southwest mid level flow becomes increasingly parallel to a slow moving front extending from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the western Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the boundary, a 45/55 knot low level west southwest flow sends 1.50 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three standard deviations above the mean) along the front, peaking after 11/00z. Within the moisture plume, model soundings showed 500/1000 J/KG of MUCAPE extending from eastern LA into west central GA. The combination of moisture and instability should be sufficient to support low topped convection along the front. Convection is possible at the beginning of the period across MS ahead of the initial short wave energy, extending into northern AL into the Southern Appalachians during the afternoon. The low topped storms are expected to produce heavy rainfall over areas that saw flooding with the last round of heavy rain earlier in the week. After a possible lull during the evening hours, the next area of convection develops along the front across AR into central MS. During this time, difluence increases over the front in the presence of a dual jet structure extending the Lower MS into New England, which should allow an areal coverage in heavy rain. As the front drops slowly southeast during the late evening and overnight, cells are expected to track from southwest northeast along the front, producing training along the front from central MS into northern GA and upstate SC. Hourly rainfall rates during this time could exceed an inch, especially where training occurs. There is a strong model signal for 2.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall extending along the front, with the highest amounts extending from central AL into far northern LA, closest to the best instability axis. Over the Southern Appalachians into northern AL, three hour flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.00/1.50 inches, as these areas received more than 300 percent of normal rainfall in the past week. There are still rivers in flood here, with soils still nearly saturated. Though rainfall amounts here are lower than further southwest, the impact here could be greater. After collaborating with the WFOs MRX/FFC/GSP, a Moderate Risk was placed here for Day 3. Further southwest, extending from northern Al into central MS, the antecedent conditions are not quite as wet, with the bulk of the heaviest rain with the last event occurring further northeast. However, the model signal here is stronger for 3.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall with the convection, lying closer to the best instability. Based on this, and after collaborating with WFOs BMX/JAN/MEG, the Moderate Risk was extended across northern AL into central MS for Day 3. Hayes

Don't mean to take away yalls winter talk in the East.But looking at the upcoming pattern seems like another potential robust KW might pass through just like the last one towards the middle of the month,maybe we can get another shot of winter if we don't drown.The MJO seriously looks like it's going to get stuck around East of the IDL,and should go back into COD unlike what the GEFS is showing

Some big flakes falling now,just hit 32 and its trying to stick on my deck

Lt snow here now...yeaaaaaaa

My XFINITY has been down finally back up and working..woohoo National Weather Service Nashville TN 712 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Radar se mosaic showing rainfall filling in to our west south and east. Across our area, patchy drizzle is ongoing with reports of the changeover to light snow in the Clarksville and Dover areas. Latest OHX sounding indicated a freezing level around 900 ft with a 1 to 2 thousand foot layer above that where the sounding was isothermal, perhaps a touch above 0c. Overall, this is slightly cooler than expected and could indicate that the changeover to snow may be an hour or two earlier than previously thought. Models all in agreement with a period of deep moisture overnight. So, snowfall is looking a little more likely. Ground temperatures however are quite warm and much of the potential accum will be negated due to that fact. For the update will increase pops by about 10-20 percent across the area. May need to edge accums up a bit but will hold off for now due to the warm ground uncertainty. Otw, remainder of fcst is in good shape.

MJO and KW like you said

Over 3" for you ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z FEB04 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) TUE 12Z 04-FEB 11.8 11.1 136 10758 21007 TUE 18Z 04-FEB 14.3 9.8 136 10518 19007 WED 00Z 05-FEB 14.8 10.0 137 10805 18007 0.06 WED 06Z 05-FEB 15.1 11.4 137 10955 19008 0.11 WED 12Z 05-FEB 15.0 12.0 137 10344 19005 0.23 WED 18Z 05-FEB 16.9 11.4 137 10166 18006 0.43 THU 00Z 06-FEB 16.3 11.9 138 10356 17007 0.23 THU 06Z 06-FEB 16.7 12.7 138 11091 18011 0.35 THU 12Z 06-FEB 16.5 12.2 138 9869 19007 0.25 THU 18Z 06-FEB 13.7 9.2 136 9821 29005 0.17 FRI 00Z 07-FEB 11.0 5.6 135 7743 26005 0.20 FRI 06Z 07-FEB 6.2 -2.5 131 2167 28009 0.02 FRI 12Z 07-FEB 2.6 -6.6 130 849 27008 0.01 FRI 18Z 07-FEB 4.9 -6.8 130 1237 27010 0.00 SAT 00Z 08-FEB 3.2 -4.3 131 2091 30003 0.00 SAT 06Z 08-FEB 0.9 -1.0 131 2833 17003 0.00 SAT 12Z 08-FEB 2.3 0.3 131 3925 15005 0.00 SAT 18Z 08-FEB 2.4 -0.9 130 1937 17007 0.42 SUN 00Z 09-FEB 3.8 -2.7 131 2454 25002 0.14 SUN 06Z 09-FEB 0.5 -4.0 130 1776 30003 0.00 SUN 12Z 09-FEB -1.0 -0.7 130 7530 02003 0.00

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 PM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 04 2020 - 12Z Wed Feb 05 2020 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... 21z update... No significant changes to the previously issued Marginal Risk. Any changes were based primarily on model trends in the placement of the axis of maximum rainfall. Model soundings showed that the best instability remains south of KY/TN, with the best MUCAPE values relegated to the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast (which is not unusual for a cool season system). However, model soundings did show some elevated instability across these areas, with MUCAPE values generally less than 100 J/KG. There is some spread on how models distribute the elevated instability, which has some effect on where the heaviest rainfall axis ultimately resides. Moisture is plentiful, with precipitable water values between two and three standard deviations above the mean transported into the upper TN Valley and lower OH Valley, where three hour flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.50 inches. While there is some model spread regarding the highest rainfall amounts, each of them placed the axis west of the lowest flash flood guidance. Based on this, the Marginal Risk was left in place. If there is better agreement concerning the placement of the heaviest rainfall (especially if it impacts areas with lower flash flood guidance values), a Slight Risk could be needed in later forecasts.

Congrats Jeff

Have to wait and see but if there is a more occuled system there would be a potential of strong thunderstorms that would be along the WF lifting N,seems most of the models are showing this set-up right now

Looking like the rossby wave train is coming through NA the next several days.We already have some flood threat upcoming,long range models are hinting at a occluded system just before Valentines day.We should be dealing with a flood potential especially the storm before Valentines day.,we'll have to wait and see how the details tho work out.Even tho we have a more -EPO the -PNA looks rather strong right now

Still would like to know why San Diego St is ranked so high and they have played nothing but chump teams,they might be one of the first teams if they get a #1 bracket to get knocked off by a 16 seed..lol

Ha..it usually updates to the date stamp

Tropical hasnt updated,can you post the ENSO into the ENSO thread into summer,?It's been showing a LaNina,just curious to see if it still shows it,suspect it will,thanks

Subsurface is almost cool basin wide,no real sign of any sig WWB upcoming tho the CFS does show right now a KW passing east of the IDL which should warm up region 3 past the mid month,if its right

Your lawn looks nice

The MJO looks basically stuck into the Maritime upcoming,.i'm starting to wonder if it can't get even more crappier down the road.Region 3 of the ENSO is cool right now but by the looks there could be a KW upcoming towards the middle of the month which would/could upwell the warmer subsurface to the surface,sure looks possible if the KW is right