jaxjagman

Long range both the Euro and GFS shows a standing tall upper level ridge in the east,have to wait and see but both the Euro and GFS are hinting at this other than timing, but the synoptics look quite similar to the past event with the possible entrance of the 300mb jet 120-140kts this would strenghten the LLShear and be quite another flood potential event.

You'd rather have a defined signal outside the COD.Right now to me id rather have the Euro to be right,JMO EDIT:Trouble typing this morning..lol

Looks more active east of the IDL.The Euro even shows it getting more into the WP and even hints at it going into the WH after it goes back into the COD

NMME'S are rolling out,they haven't updated all the way,you have to click on the image to get the right update or you'll be loooking at the old one right now https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 308 AM EST Sat Feb 08 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2020 - 12Z Tue Feb 11 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...Lower Mississippi Valley across the Lower Tennessee Valley into the Southern Appalachians... Strong short wave energy closes off as it drops across Southern CA to a position off the northern Baja Peninsula by the end of Day 3. Short wave energy ejected from the closed low rides along a slow moving front extending from the Southern Appalachians into the Lower MS Valley, providing synoptic scale ascent for heavy rainfall over areas that received flooding in the recent past. There is a good model agreement with the overall setup, increasing confidence in an enhanced flash flood threat in this area. As the closed mid level low settles just off the Southern CA coast during the second half of Day 3, the west southwest mid level flow becomes increasingly parallel to a slow moving front extending from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the western Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the boundary, a 45/55 knot low level west southwest flow sends 1.50 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three standard deviations above the mean) along the front, peaking after 11/00z. Within the moisture plume, model soundings showed 500/1000 J/KG of MUCAPE extending from eastern LA into west central GA. The combination of moisture and instability should be sufficient to support low topped convection along the front. Convection is possible at the beginning of the period across MS ahead of the initial short wave energy, extending into northern AL into the Southern Appalachians during the afternoon. The low topped storms are expected to produce heavy rainfall over areas that saw flooding with the last round of heavy rain earlier in the week. After a possible lull during the evening hours, the next area of convection develops along the front across AR into central MS. During this time, difluence increases over the front in the presence of a dual jet structure extending the Lower MS into New England, which should allow an areal coverage in heavy rain. As the front drops slowly southeast during the late evening and overnight, cells are expected to track from southwest northeast along the front, producing training along the front from central MS into northern GA and upstate SC. Hourly rainfall rates during this time could exceed an inch, especially where training occurs. There is a strong model signal for 2.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall extending along the front, with the highest amounts extending from central AL into far northern LA, closest to the best instability axis. Over the Southern Appalachians into northern AL, three hour flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.00/1.50 inches, as these areas received more than 300 percent of normal rainfall in the past week. There are still rivers in flood here, with soils still nearly saturated. Though rainfall amounts here are lower than further southwest, the impact here could be greater. After collaborating with the WFOs MRX/FFC/GSP, a Moderate Risk was placed here for Day 3. Further southwest, extending from northern Al into central MS, the antecedent conditions are not quite as wet, with the bulk of the heaviest rain with the last event occurring further northeast. However, the model signal here is stronger for 3.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall with the convection, lying closer to the best instability. Based on this, and after collaborating with WFOs BMX/JAN/MEG, the Moderate Risk was extended across northern AL into central MS for Day 3. Hayes

Don't mean to take away yalls winter talk in the East.But looking at the upcoming pattern seems like another potential robust KW might pass through just like the last one towards the middle of the month,maybe we can get another shot of winter if we don't drown.The MJO seriously looks like it's going to get stuck around East of the IDL,and should go back into COD unlike what the GEFS is showing

Some big flakes falling now,just hit 32 and its trying to stick on my deck

Lt snow here now...yeaaaaaaa

My XFINITY has been down finally back up and working..woohoo National Weather Service Nashville TN 712 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Radar se mosaic showing rainfall filling in to our west south and east. Across our area, patchy drizzle is ongoing with reports of the changeover to light snow in the Clarksville and Dover areas. Latest OHX sounding indicated a freezing level around 900 ft with a 1 to 2 thousand foot layer above that where the sounding was isothermal, perhaps a touch above 0c. Overall, this is slightly cooler than expected and could indicate that the changeover to snow may be an hour or two earlier than previously thought. Models all in agreement with a period of deep moisture overnight. So, snowfall is looking a little more likely. Ground temperatures however are quite warm and much of the potential accum will be negated due to that fact. For the update will increase pops by about 10-20 percent across the area. May need to edge accums up a bit but will hold off for now due to the warm ground uncertainty. Otw, remainder of fcst is in good shape.

MJO and KW like you said

Over 3" for you ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z FEB04 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) TUE 12Z 04-FEB 11.8 11.1 136 10758 21007 TUE 18Z 04-FEB 14.3 9.8 136 10518 19007 WED 00Z 05-FEB 14.8 10.0 137 10805 18007 0.06 WED 06Z 05-FEB 15.1 11.4 137 10955 19008 0.11 WED 12Z 05-FEB 15.0 12.0 137 10344 19005 0.23 WED 18Z 05-FEB 16.9 11.4 137 10166 18006 0.43 THU 00Z 06-FEB 16.3 11.9 138 10356 17007 0.23 THU 06Z 06-FEB 16.7 12.7 138 11091 18011 0.35 THU 12Z 06-FEB 16.5 12.2 138 9869 19007 0.25 THU 18Z 06-FEB 13.7 9.2 136 9821 29005 0.17 FRI 00Z 07-FEB 11.0 5.6 135 7743 26005 0.20 FRI 06Z 07-FEB 6.2 -2.5 131 2167 28009 0.02 FRI 12Z 07-FEB 2.6 -6.6 130 849 27008 0.01 FRI 18Z 07-FEB 4.9 -6.8 130 1237 27010 0.00 SAT 00Z 08-FEB 3.2 -4.3 131 2091 30003 0.00 SAT 06Z 08-FEB 0.9 -1.0 131 2833 17003 0.00 SAT 12Z 08-FEB 2.3 0.3 131 3925 15005 0.00 SAT 18Z 08-FEB 2.4 -0.9 130 1937 17007 0.42 SUN 00Z 09-FEB 3.8 -2.7 131 2454 25002 0.14 SUN 06Z 09-FEB 0.5 -4.0 130 1776 30003 0.00 SUN 12Z 09-FEB -1.0 -0.7 130 7530 02003 0.00

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 PM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 04 2020 - 12Z Wed Feb 05 2020 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... 21z update... No significant changes to the previously issued Marginal Risk. Any changes were based primarily on model trends in the placement of the axis of maximum rainfall. Model soundings showed that the best instability remains south of KY/TN, with the best MUCAPE values relegated to the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast (which is not unusual for a cool season system). However, model soundings did show some elevated instability across these areas, with MUCAPE values generally less than 100 J/KG. There is some spread on how models distribute the elevated instability, which has some effect on where the heaviest rainfall axis ultimately resides. Moisture is plentiful, with precipitable water values between two and three standard deviations above the mean transported into the upper TN Valley and lower OH Valley, where three hour flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.50 inches. While there is some model spread regarding the highest rainfall amounts, each of them placed the axis west of the lowest flash flood guidance. Based on this, the Marginal Risk was left in place. If there is better agreement concerning the placement of the heaviest rainfall (especially if it impacts areas with lower flash flood guidance values), a Slight Risk could be needed in later forecasts.

Congrats Jeff

Have to wait and see but if there is a more occuled system there would be a potential of strong thunderstorms that would be along the WF lifting N,seems most of the models are showing this set-up right now

Looking like the rossby wave train is coming through NA the next several days.We already have some flood threat upcoming,long range models are hinting at a occluded system just before Valentines day.We should be dealing with a flood potential especially the storm before Valentines day.,we'll have to wait and see how the details tho work out.Even tho we have a more -EPO the -PNA looks rather strong right now

Still would like to know why San Diego St is ranked so high and they have played nothing but chump teams,they might be one of the first teams if they get a #1 bracket to get knocked off by a 16 seed..lol

Ha..it usually updates to the date stamp

Tropical hasnt updated,can you post the ENSO into the ENSO thread into summer,?It's been showing a LaNina,just curious to see if it still shows it,suspect it will,thanks

Subsurface is almost cool basin wide,no real sign of any sig WWB upcoming tho the CFS does show right now a KW passing east of the IDL which should warm up region 3 past the mid month,if its right

Your lawn looks nice

The MJO looks basically stuck into the Maritime upcoming,.i'm starting to wonder if it can't get even more crappier down the road.Region 3 of the ENSO is cool right now but by the looks there could be a KW upcoming towards the middle of the month which would/could upwell the warmer subsurface to the surface,sure looks possible if the KW is right

The next work week looks sad if you want winter in the Mid Valley,temps could exceed around 15F+ AN. by the Euro and possibly around 3" of rain,possibly more in some locations depending on instability ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-FEB 3.8 -2.1 -2 43 -9 -8 SAT 18Z 01-FEB 5.5 -4.1 -3 -13 -10 -8 SUN 00Z 02-FEB 4.5 -4.6 -3 -38 -6 -3 SUN 06Z 02-FEB 0.7 0.5 -3 8 1 3 SUN 12Z 02-FEB 0.5 5.0 -5 5 6 10 SUN 18Z 02-FEB 12.6 10.5 -7 -20 10 15 MON 00Z 03-FEB 8.7 12.7 -7 -28 12 17 MON 06Z 03-FEB 6.1 14.6 -6 -30 13 19 MON 12Z 03-FEB 5.2 12.7 -6 -31 13 18 MON 18Z 03-FEB 13.2 11.8 -7 -20 12 18 TUE 00Z 04-FEB 11.7 11.5 -9 25 12 19 TUE 06Z 04-FEB 10.1 8.1 -7 50 11 17 TUE 12Z 04-FEB 9.8 7.7 -7 56 10 15 TUE 18Z 04-FEB 11.6 8.1 -7 51 10 15 WED 00Z 05-FEB 11.9 8.1 -8 1098 50 39.54 9 15 WED 06Z 05-FEB 12.2 9.6 -10 1097 43 39.51 8 16 WED 12Z 05-FEB 12.1 9.3 -10 1098 48 39.69 8 16 WED 18Z 05-FEB 13.2 10.3 -13 1097 43 39.64 6 17 THU 00Z 06-FEB 13.9 10.8 -19 36 4 19 THU 06Z 06-FEB 13.0 10.8 -21 35 1 18 THU 12Z 06-FEB 6.1 8.8 -19 -17 -3 13 THU 18Z 06-FEB 4.1 3.8 -19 53 -9 7 FRI 00Z 07-FEB 3.7 -1.7 -21 -11 -16 0 FRI 06Z 07-FEB -0.1 -8.1 -17 12 -26 -12 FRI 12Z 07-FEB -1.6 -10.7 -14 -27 -28 -17 FRI 18Z 07-FEB 1.8 -9.0 -10 5 -25 -17 SAT 00Z 08-FEB 1.8 -2.6 -10 43 -16 -7 SAT 06Z 08-FEB 4.3 0.9 -7 44 -10 -4 SAT 12Z 08-FEB 4.2 0.2 -5 46 -7 -3

Looks like a pretty crappie look through the Feb,but the details they decribe look about accurate as there looks to be a more stationary Equatorial Rossby Wave around the IDL with Kelvin moving through the IO the next couple days that gets into or around the IDL mid month,past that the MJO signal gets murky Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 15 2020-Fri Feb 28 2020 A complicated perspective emerges when considering possible tropical drivers of the midlatitude circulation as of late January. Over the past week the RMM index tracks the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) inside the unit circle with an accompanying uncharacteristic westward shift driven by equatorial Rossby wave activity, with a recent re-emergence over the West Pacific (Phase 6). Decomposition of canonical equatorial waves suggests this signal is tied to a Kelvin wave near the antimeridian, while dynamical model forecasts of the RMM show the MJO re-emerging over the Indian Ocean or Maritime Continent by the second week of February. At the lower frequencies, the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient remains robust across the Pacific in an east-west sense, with the latest Nino 4 SST anomalies of +0.9 degrees C and Nino 1+2 checking in at -0.2 degrees C. Persistent negative outgoing longwave radiation anomalies have been observed near and just west of the Date Line since late November. Given this complex perspective, any possible MJO influence is downplayed as the envelope appears to be in flux at present with the Phase 6 signal being tied to Kelvin wave activity that typically fails to couple with the extratropics. The convective pattern over the Pacific does project weakly onto a subseasonal El Nino-like response, despite SSTs increasing from east to west. As a result, the resultant Week 3 and 4 outlook primarily leverages dynamical model guidance with some deference to long-term trends and a slight adjustment toward canonical El Nino conditions. Dynamical model circulation guidance generally features a robust negative Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), both of which are consistent with the Week-2 forecast. These patterns translate into an amplified 500-hPa pattern featuring anomalous ridging south of the Aleutians, positively-tilted troughing over the West, and ridging extending from Mexico through New England. The outliers lacking this pattern come from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) model suite, in the way of the CCSM4, GEFS, and FIM models. These three models feature more ridging over the west and weakness or troughing in the East, in line with the typical MJO response to a Phase 6 event. Given the apparent Phase 6 signal being Kelvin-wave oriented, these models are discounted in the construction of the final outlook. Much to the chagrin of any snow lovers in the East, the continued NAO+ outlook and enhanced subtropical ridge over the Southeast favors a tilt toward above-normal temperatures, while the MJO re-emerging over the Maritime Continent would likely further lock in east coast warmth. Troughing across the West results in below-normal temperatures being favored, although there is some uncertainty regarding how far south and east any cold air mass would extend. A west-east dipole favoring above- and below-normal temperatures respectively is forecast across Alaska tied to the forecast ridge-trough pattern across the Pacific and western North America. El Nino influence across the Northern Tier tends to wash out long-term trends which are slightly below-normal, while decadal trends further support the increased chances for above-normal temperatures in the east, resulting in these probabilities being enhanced relative to the dynamical model guidance. The PNA- pattern supports a suppressed Pacific jet resulting in below-normal precipitation chances for areas adjacent to the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast. Dynamical models extend below-normal precipitation chances across the Southwest, further supported by decadal precipitation trends being negative for the region. There is some uncertainty with how far north and east this dry pattern would extend, further confounded by upslope precipitation potential along the High Plains tied to below-normal temperatures behind the anomalous trough. A mean frontal zone can be inferred at the trough-ridge interface, resulting in above-normal precipitation chances being elevated from the Lower Mississippi Valley through Ohio Valley. SST anomalies in the vicinity of Hawaii continue to range from +1 to +2 degrees C, supporting above-normal temperatures being favored across the islands. Model guidance supports a weak gradient in precipitation with wetter (drier) conditions favored across eastern (western) portions of the state, in line with observed conditions across the state in early 2020.

Middle Tennessee Weather History On January 31, 1951... Five inches of snow and ice fall, much of it during the evening, producing a water equivalent of 3.83". This is the greatest one-day precipitation event for January in Nashville's history. This was a heck of a storm in 1951 this time frame https://www.weather.gov/ohx/1951icestorm