jaxjagman

Fixing to hit OHX

Just hit downtown Nashville

Headed towards downtown Nashville,if it keeps up

Finally something broke in Tn

Not much change this update,subsurface has warmed and cooled in spots

If we can get anything to pop during this time,could see some big baseballs tossed at above.PW's look mehish until any cap breaks like said above,looks more into the evening to early morning in our parts after the cap breaks,any strong updraft you might want to make sure your vehicle is covered up .. Of course this can change,plus a tornado and wind risk with any severe Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Mid-South region southwestward across parts of northeastern Texas Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... As northern-stream upper troughing expands/shifts gradually eastward across central and eastern Canada and the north-central U.S., an upper low initially off the southern California coast is progged to turn eastward with time, reaching northwestern Mexico later in the period. Meanwhile, fast/low-amplitude westerly to west-southwesterly flow will prevail over the south-central and southeastern portions of the country. At the surface, a cold front initially stretching from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to western Texas will advance eastward with time, reaching a position from New England to southeast Texas by the end of the period. This front will focus a zone of convection from parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys into northeastern Texas from this afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Mid South region southwestward across northeastern Texas... As the cold front advances gradually southeastward across Kentucky/Tennessee/Arkansas/northeastern Texas through the day, an initial area of warm-advection-induced storms will spread eastward through the Mid South region. In its wake, weak destabilization is expected ahead of the front, though capping will hinder new storm development into the afternoon hours. Substantial model differences exist with respect to the degree of cap erosion, with HRRR and NAM forecasts the most aggressive models with elimination of capping by late afternoon, resulting in an uncapped/amply unstable environment. Given favorable shear across the region, this thermodynamic evolution would support at least isolated supercell storms, and attendant severe risk -- particularly in the form of hail. Other/isolated storms are more consistently forecast by the models southwestward across Arkansas and northern Louisiana and portions of northeastern Texas. Based on the consistently more bullish output from NAM/HRRR runs, an upgrade to slight risk appears reasonable. Primary risk appears to be hail, but locally damaging winds and even a couple of tornadoes would be possible should capping erode to the degree depicted in some guidance. Primary risk appears to exist across the western Tennessee vicinity in roughly the 23 to 04Z time frame. Marginal risk is also being extended as far southwestward as northeast Texas, where a few stronger storms appear likely to initiate during the afternoon. ..Goss/Nauslar.. 03/02/2020

Seems like the next few days Kelvin waves will go through East Asia.Could see a coupe troughs going through this area in the long range.MJO signal looks weak into the long range,if the CFS is right there might even be a Kelvin or Equatorial Kelvin wave that should excite the subtropical jet.ERTAF has started up again and shows the same thing into week 2 of March

Least there is a chance of some strong storms.The heavy rains the models were advertising has shifted even further south today thanks to the cut-off H5 out west which today basically don't get kicked out until Tuesday per Euro.Should be at least of a chance for the west,this is where the best instability is showing right now

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-South from Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... Strong upper low expected to be centered over southern CA early Monday morning is forecast to gradually shift southeastward throughout the day, eventually becoming centered over northwest Mexico by early Tuesday morning. Downstream of this low, southwesterly flow aloft is expected to expand eastward through the Mid MS Valley and Southeast, increasing in speed as the upper pattern becomes more confluent. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low near the central MO/IL border southwestward to another low over central OK on Monday morning. Overall frontal position will slowly sag southeastward, impeded by the persistent moist southerly flow south of the front. Continued moisture advection is forecast to bring low 60s dewpoints through much of the Mid-South by Monday evening. Thunderstorms are anticipated along front from Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, with the highest coverage expected across northeast AR, northern MS, western/middle TN, and southwest KY. ...Mid-South... Moist return flow is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints into northeast AR/western TN ahead of the approaching cold front. This low-level moisture coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest instability amidst low convective inhibition. Strong westerly flow aloft will also be in place, contributing to strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50-60 kt). The result will be an environment supportive of rotating thunderstorms if storms can develop and persist. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be largely negligible but the surface low initial over central OK is expected to move northeastward along the front, likely providing the mesoscale ascent needed for convective initiation. Primary threat with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail but there will likely be enough low-level shear for a low probability threat of tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 02/29/2020

You are higher than most people.I looked at some spots just now east and seen the winds were blowing more from the SW,seems odd,The 925's to the south per HRRR would be tough to support snow anyways other than higher elevations per HRRR that far south

Long range has some interesting looks.The MJO seemingly is fixing to have destructive interference from Rossby and Kelvin waves but the MJO signal should still be moving eastward into the IOD tho it looks like it might be into the Maritime.Also you if you look into East Asia there could be a robust through coming through that part or troughs later into March

Another suck winter for us,we'll be headed towards 3-years without any event bringing a inch or more snow next winter. If the Euro is right with this system up coming you guys possibly could get a surprise in the east towards next weekend,alot would have to depend on this trough,to warm for us ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z FEB28 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 28-FEB 0.0 -5.5 129 817 21006 FRI 18Z 28-FEB 3.9 -5.8 130 1011 25010 SAT 00Z 29-FEB 2.1 -5.0 130 1542 26006 0.02 SAT 06Z 29-FEB 0.5 -5.9 129 787 25007 0.02 SAT 12Z 29-FEB -1.3 -10.5 128 0 29007 0.02 SAT 18Z 29-FEB 3.5 -8.7 129 633 29005 0.00 SUN 00Z 01-MAR 0.2 -3.8 130 1744 26004 0.00 SUN 06Z 01-MAR -2.4 0.5 131 4415 18004 0.00 SUN 12Z 01-MAR -1.6 1.6 131 6039 19003 0.00 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 12.3 3.0 134 5601 23006 0.00 MON 00Z 02-MAR 9.6 4.3 135 6287 19005 0.00 MON 06Z 02-MAR 6.2 3.6 134 6067 19004 0.00 MON 12Z 02-MAR 5.5 4.2 133 5901 16005 0.05 MON 18Z 02-MAR 9.5 4.9 134 7191 20008 0.23 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 9.7 7.1 135 7839 19005 0.09 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 9.7 9.4 136 7630 19005 0.16 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 11.6 9.9 136 7695 21006 0.29 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 14.5 9.7 137 8411 23005 0.23 WED 00Z 04-MAR 14.6 9.9 137 8328 21007 0.08 WED 06Z 04-MAR 11.6 6.9 136 7482 26007 0.06 WED 12Z 04-MAR 7.9 4.3 134 8335 34004 0.01 WED 18Z 04-MAR 15.6 5.4 135 9064 25003 0.00 THU 00Z 05-MAR 11.6 8.2 136 8216 24003 0.00 THU 06Z 05-MAR 8.5 4.8 135 6512 06001 0.01 THU 12Z 05-MAR 6.2 3.6 133 7975 05008 0.55 THU 18Z 05-MAR 8.1 2.3 133 8724 05008 0.38 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 6.1 1.5 132 5735 01004 0.23 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 4.0 -0.8 131 5378 26004 0.00 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 3.9 -2.7 131 1718 27009 0.16 FRI 18Z 06-MAR 3.8 -4.6 130 1183 29011 0.06 SAT 00Z 07-MAR 0.8 -7.6 129 423 32010 0.12 SAT 06Z 07-MAR -1.1 -10.7 128 3 35009 0.05 SAT 12Z 07-MAR -2.6 -11.8 127 0 35008 0.01 SAT 18Z 07-MAR 2.4 -10.0 128 425 35009 0.00 SUN 00Z 08-MAR -0.2 -8.1 129 873 01005 0.00 SUN 06Z 08-MAR -3.9 -4.9 128 0 04004 0.00 SUN 12Z 08-MAR -5.7 -0.6 129 601 06004 0.00 SUN 18Z 08-MAR 7.7 0.8 132 4980 04003 0.00 MON 00Z 09-MAR 3.2 2.4 133 5956 10003 0.00 MON 06Z 09-MAR 0.9 3.6 132 7084 20004 0.00 MON 12Z 09-MAR -1.7 3.8 132 7089 20004 0.00

Slow Euro or faster GFS ?Who will win? Euro dont show much of any flooding as it crashed the 300mb jet through the Valley while the GFS is into the OV.Could be the Euro doing its typical thing holding back energy to the west,who knows

Mem CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB27 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 12Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 7.7 548 135 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 15.8 548 135 MON 00Z 02-MAR 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.08 15.3 552 136 MON 06Z 02-MAR 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.32 12.6 552 135 MON 12Z 02-MAR 0.26 0.25 0.00 0.58 11.7 554 136 MON 18Z 02-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.59 18.2 556 137 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.60 17.9 559 138 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.71 17.0 561 138 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 0.56 0.38 0.00 1.27 16.3 560 137 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 0.60 0.26 0.00 1.88 17.6 562 138 WED 00Z 04-MAR 0.95 0.58 0.00 2.82 17.2 566 138 WED 06Z 04-MAR 2.21 1.13 0.00 5.03 13.9 564 137 WED 12Z 04-MAR 0.48 0.12 0.00 5.50 12.9 560 136 WED 18Z 04-MAR 0.44 0.11 0.00 5.94 9.3 549 133 THU 00Z 05-MAR 0.09 0.01 0.00 6.03 7.6 537 133 THU 06Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 7.1 539 132 THU 12Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 2.4 544 133 THU 18Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 15.7 548 134 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 13.2 551 135 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 10.1 552 136 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.03 6.9 553 135

No doubt the boundary stalls out over the Valley somewhere,wouldnt pin point any area this far out BNA ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB27 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 12Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 1.2 545 133 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 15.3 546 135 MON 00Z 02-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 12.9 548 135 MON 06Z 02-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 10.2 549 134 MON 12Z 02-MAR 0.29 0.24 0.00 0.38 8.4 550 134 MON 18Z 02-MAR 0.08 0.07 0.00 0.46 13.3 552 135 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.47 13.7 554 136 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.53 13.6 557 137 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 0.30 0.09 0.00 0.83 15.0 559 137 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 0.44 0.12 0.00 1.27 16.1 560 137 WED 00Z 04-MAR 0.60 0.16 0.00 1.88 16.3 564 138 WED 06Z 04-MAR 0.75 0.24 0.00 2.63 17.3 566 138 WED 12Z 04-MAR 1.62 0.35 0.00 4.25 12.7 563 137 WED 18Z 04-MAR 2.49 0.33 0.00 6.74 11.2 563 135 THU 00Z 05-MAR 0.39 0.05 0.00 7.13 5.8 541 131 THU 06Z 05-MAR 0.01 0.00 0.00 7.14 3.4 530 131 THU 12Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 1.2 536 131 THU 18Z 05-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 13.5 543 133 FRI 00Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 11.1 547 135 FRI 06Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 8.0 547 135 FRI 12Z 06-MAR 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 4.5 548 134

Its about the same date the EF4 hit Alabama last year Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to come into better agreement regarding the eastward ejection of an upper trough/low from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern/central Plains from Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley in this time frame. The past several runs of the deterministic ECMWF have been relatively consistent in the timing and amplitude of the eastward ejection of the upper trough/low. The potential for substantial low-level moisture return across parts of east TX into the ArkLaMiss by Day 6/Tuesday has increased. Low and mid-level flow are also forecast to markedly strengthen across these areas, particularly Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. With strong forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough/low, a surface low should deepen as it develops northeastward from portions of east TX into the vicinity of the Mid-South. A trailing cold front should also shift eastward across TX into parts of the lower MS Valley by the end of the Day 6/Tuesday period (early Wednesday morning). A thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space favorable for the formation and maintenance of organized severe thunderstorms will probably exist over these areas from Tuesday evening though early Wednesday morning. Storms could form both along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, with all severe hazards possible. Therefore, a 15% severe delineation has been introduced for Day 6/Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with how far east the threat will extend into MS late Tuesday night, and adjustments to this 15% area are likely. Uncertainty in the placement of both the upper trough/low and related surface low increases into Day 7/Wednesday. At least some severe threat may continue across parts of the Southeast (mainly AL/GA vicinity), but low-level moisture should gradually decrease with eastward extent. 15% severe probabilities may be needed in a later outlook issuance over parts of the Southeast on Day 7/Wednesday once the synoptic-scale evolution becomes a bit clearer. ..Gleason.. 02/27/2020

Subsurface still looks warm.CFS shows close to a strong Nina by August

Getting some snow now,least we got a band coming through producing

Nothing but a virga storm here

Looks better than yesterday,Euro showed some better theta .GFS shows the DP'S almost in the mid 60;s around Memphis on this afternoons run.But 8-9-days out you should know the drill by now with the models

Yeah i was just looking,convection down south would choke off the capesLow cape/high shear.Sure we'll see changes upcoming

That is one wicked CF,look how it strengtens into a 978MB.if its right.This is mentioned up above with this sytem

Oh La La