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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    System going through Korea in the end of the month,PNA is going - while the NAO is up in the air and could go negative(not what we want,this would suppress the storm),if the NAO stays more neutral/positive we could see a decent system towards the end of the 1st week of June,we'll see
  2. jaxjagman
    The cone just got expanded further east,typical no belief in the NAM..lol
  3. jaxjagman
    Shift to the W on the Euro this afternoonThat's a large cone for our area, so there is alot of uncertainty for the Valley for the exact track.
  4. jaxjagman
    16/9/4 June 2/0/0 July 3/1/0 August 3/3/2 September 5/3/2 October 3/2/0 November 0/0/0
  5. jaxjagman
    IMME keeps the ENSO more neutral though summer and the Valley wet
  6. jaxjagman
    The Valley looks fairly active through out the month of June, per the Dashboard.We should see a chance of thunderstorms pop back up Friday as the Upper ridge weakens and shifts east,then we'll see what or if the system in the GOM brings someone next week.
  7. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Been hanging out at the french quarters last week for a graduation (don't think i ever want to drink again) Jamstec did a reverse from it's last update.The IODI was closer to a +0.5 now hovering around +2 into Sept-Oct..What would have been more trough in the west with "AN" temps in the Valley this winter,is reversed with with more trough in the east and "BN" temps in the Valley.Stronger more modoki Nino look close if not a moderate one.No real signs of any let go with the wet pattern through fall,no signs of any drought anyways.
  8. jaxjagman
    I took my contacts out last week because of the pollen then stuck them back in during the week-end.Wrong move,i now have an eye infection.This sucks also,nothing worse than something effecting your eyes,your whole body feels it.
  9. jaxjagman
    Nashville is in danger of breaking the record high of 90 today set back in 2016
  10. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

  11. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The NMME latest update this month starts to develop a Nino Modoki in August.Then a full basinwide weak Nino by Dec
  12. jaxjagman
    Some signs of a wet June in the Valley.NMME and RRWT is showing it
  13. jaxjagman
    SOI recently has taken some big swings.Wednesday looks questionable but both the GFS and Euro has a shortwave coming through Middle TN in the afternoon,so if something does pop it could get severe.GFS also shows some better bulk sheer tonight.Soundings just west of Nashville Edit:Euro still looks pathetic on the OZ Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 8 May 2018 1014.56 1011.85 9.06 -2.94 3.12 7 May 2018 1013.35 1013.75 -14.77 -2.93 2.71 6 May 2018 1013.17 1014.85 -24.57 -1.88 2.57 5 May 2018 1013.09 1013.65 -15.99 -0.39 2.62 4 May 2018 1014.37 1012.50 2.62 0.85 2.55
  14. jaxjagman
    Yeah, the MJO is taking it's time seemingly getting out of Africa into the IO,than what's been modeled. Wednesday,the GFS recently the last couple runs have backed off the sheer in the west, CPC has nothing but a marginal risk .Euro don't still show a whole heck of alot of anything like you mentioned.Should be a better chance starting around mid month and beyond.Certainly with the MJO and the recent SOI crash it would seem that way anyways with a system into the 3rd week of May.If the BSR maps are close to anything right there would be a CF coming towards the Valley then stalling out.We'll see
  15. jaxjagman
    We had a little hail this afternoon in the Middle Valley, some big cumulus clouds,this was from Fairview.The cells started to weaken by the time they got to us ,we saw some but nothing like this
  16. jaxjagman
    Agreed.But still need to watch next Wed and maybe Thursday especially during diurnal heating.GFS last run shows some better Super cell composites with better bulk sheer Wednesday in the Western Valley.Difference to me between the Euro and GFS is the GFS shows a shortwave in the western Valley,the Euro don't show this.So who knows which will cave.Also going to Thursday if the GFS is right,shows MUCapes of around 3.7K in portions of the eastern Vallley
  17. jaxjagman
    Keep a eye on this time frame.The MJO has been showing signs of being LESS progressive as it was being shown getting into the IO into week 2 now more mid month,either way
  18. jaxjagman
    The Pollen is bad right now.Predicted to get into the high range here in Mid-Tn tomorrow and Friday.I wear contacts and had to take them out because my eyes were totally blood shot,plus the sinus headaches are not much fun either.Certainly pulling for some rain sooner than later.
  19. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    JMA
  20. jaxjagman
    The MJO also would be favorable during this time on the maps above.But where it goes after it gets into the IO is in question and how amped it will be when it does get there
  21. jaxjagman
    Maybe towards the Mid month we'll see a better system.The boundary isn't up towards the lakes but a warm front potentially could be lifting through the Valley
  22. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

  23. jaxjagman
    Nice work,this is awesome,this must have taken some time to figure out?Good to see though Mid Tn posters with contributions to our board and our area.Don't stop now..lol
  24. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    If some of the seasonals are right by the POAMA looking at the IOD,more neutral(negative) will possibly be into summer.Nothing + looking right now to be more or less inductive to a Nino,right now anyways
  25. jaxjagman
    If the weeklies are anywhere right not only there would be a severe threat but a big flooding threat into wk 1 and week 2 of May.This system around the first of May is looking better also recently,so we'll have to see what happens with this
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