jaxjagman

Amy Butler mentioned 1999 and 2009 on her twitter for the SSWE.The ONI is somewhat similar,right now anyways to 2009.Plus Jeff,is calling for an active season made me go search some,this is no forecast In 1999 this long lasting strong Nina event that lasted well over a year and i couldn't find much of anything on severe weather events on Wiki Now, 2009 was quite different.This shows Nina falling off in FMA.Then a strong Nino started to form in JJA 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 The drought monitor pictured on( pic.1) shows similarities to 2009 and what could POSSIBLY be,insert from 2009 is THROUGH Feb,now if you see the the CPC 3-4 outlook(PIC2). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/200902#NatOverview Much of the country received below-average precipitation during the month, resulting in the eighth driest February for the contiguous United States. The areas with the driest anomaliesincluded the coastal Northeast to mid-Atlantic states, parts of the Southeast and southern Plains, and parts of the Rockies to Pacific Northwest. February was drier than normal across the southern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico, with the year-to-date drier than normal across thesoutheast. Most of the stations in Hawaii reported below-normal precipitation in February, resulting in little change to the drought areas. Beneficial rains in December improved the 3-month precipitation totals, but the last 12 months were generally dry. February was wet across much of Alaska, but dry along parts of the southern coast. The precipitation pattern for the last three months and last 12 months was mixed. Only a few areas in Alaska had below-average snowpack as of the end of February.By the end of February, the core drought areas included: south central Texas, where extreme to exceptional drought was entrenched; parts of the southeastern U.S., with moderate to extreme drought; portions of the northwestern Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley, where moderate to severe drought lingered; parts of Nevada and California, with moderate to extreme drought; and Hawaii, where severe to extreme drought continued across the central and eastern islands. For the last week in February, according to USDM statistics, moderate to severe drought affected 10 percent of the Midwest; moderate to extreme drought affected 41 percent of the Southeast, 27 percent of the West, and 47 percent of Hawaii; and moderate to exceptional drought affected 43 percent of the South. In 2009, this was an active severe season(pic3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2009 We also during this year the had the tornado outbreak of April 9-11 where parts of the Valley was under a High Risk Area(Pic4) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_9–11,_2009

Passing of the KW was causing up-welling recently east of the IDL in the thermocline showing colder waters mixing in and further east shows down-welling where warmer waters are mixing in the thermocline on the Pentad.Today's ENSO shows Nina holding rather strong with all regions with the exception of region 4 in a moderate Nina state,per Tropical Tidbits

SOI is back into Nino state 2018 14 1013.64 1007.75 6.04 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 2018 28 1008.51 1001.35 12.02 2018 29 1008.88 1001.10 14.94 2018 30 1009.65 1003.00 9.62 2018 31 1009.46 1004.90 -0.23 2018 32 1009.08 1006.65 -11.10

The SOI finally hit the negative mark,still neutral 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 2018 28 1008.51 1001.35 12.02 2018 29 1008.88 1001.10 14.94 2018 30 1009.65 1003.00 9.62 2018 31 1009.46 1004.90 -0.23

La Niña likely past its peak as Pacific sea surface temperatures warm A weak La Niña continues in the Pacific Ocean, but may have peaked in recent weeks. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have warmed slightly since late December, with most models now forecasting that La Niña will end in the southern autumn. Indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue to reflect La Niña. Sea surface temperatures show a weak La Niña pattern, with the coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness show clear La Niña characteristics. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also at La Niña levels, though has fluctuated during the summer season due to the passage of tropical weather systems. In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Five of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018. With indicators hovering near thresholds since December, it remains to be seen if 2017–18 will be classed as an official La Niña year.

Today's,the 29th

DS 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 2018 28 1008.51 1001.35 12.02 2018 29 1008.88 1001.10 14.94

SOI 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 2018 28 1008.51 1001.35 12.02

2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 Daily SOI

Downwelling KW somewhere around 140W is putting a hurting on Nina.You can see it well on the Pentad.KW and the MJO passing through won't play nice with Nina.

SOI 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47

SOI today 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 Kelvin Wave coming up east of the IDL,looks better than yesterday.

CFS shows Nina hanging,no sign yet of Nino.We'll see SOI now the last couple of weeks has been the best Nina state since the on set 2018 11 1013.53 1007.10 8.58 2018 12 1013.34 1006.85 8.86 2018 13 1013.79 1008.15 4.86 2018 14 1013.64 1007.75 6.04 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68

Daily SOI 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83

Our severe season in the Valley early season seems to slipping away each day,you thinking the same ?March is looking like a dud right now to me anyways.Don't mean no severe.but..

The SOI is holding firm right now.It's kinda similar of what we seen late into Nov where the MJO went through west of the IDL but the MJO is much stronger by the looks right now this go around 2018 2017 318 1012.76 1007.95 12.28 2017 319 1013.52 1008.80 11.70 2017 320 1013.25 1007.90 15.71 2017 321 1012.80 1007.95 12.53 2017 322 1012.94 1007.90 13.74 2017 323 1012.50 1007.60 12.85 2017 324 1012.41 1007.95 10.05 2017 325 1012.00 1007.70 9.03 2017 326 1011.02 1006.00 13.61 2017 327 1010.68 1005.50 14.63 2019 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 The strong wind burst around the IDL is fixing to leave and bring a Kelvin Wave east of the IDL in time by the looks

Region 4 has taking a dip recently,more the result of the MJO coming through

Maybe a strong Nino next year, but i don't see it right now this year.You want to see those ocean anomalies pillow up west of the IDL then let go like gang busters .There is no real signs of that now,some warming is showing on the Pentad but it's still not earth shattering ,but who knows you might be right,

Jamstec ensemble mean shows Nina not lasting much longer but still Nina like conditions until late spring and going neutral through 2020,though some disagreement with it's members.(MAM) looks BN (cooler) in the Valley

Think it's to early to tell.That would be something else if Nina came back again.There never have been trips,just a couple back to back Ninas,since 1950 anyways http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

NMME/IMME is showing Nina lasting into late spring/early summer Nina has probably just about peaked or has by the looks with warmer waters trying to build up in the depths on the ETA.The last several days there has been some warming in region 1+2.CPC/IRI shows a 50% chance of the ENSO being neutral next fall and possibly into next winter. The BOM thinks Nina will hang on a bit later, Weak La Niña continues over the Pacific A weak La Niña pattern continues in the tropical Pacific. This event is likely to be at or near its peak, with most models suggesting this La Niña will end during the southern autumn. Sea surface temperatures currently show a clear La Niña pattern, with coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, some atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness also show a clear La Niña signal. However, a continuing build-up of warmer water beneath the surface of the western Pacific is a likely precursor to the end of this event. In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018, so these thresholds are likely to be met. La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, a weak La Niña will have less influence on Australian rainfall than a strong event. La Niña events can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April.

I like severe season also.The only set back to me looks like if there is a SSW event that would throw a wrench in it,but i dont see it right now.Some signs of downwelling into Feb,not sure it will work out,even if if did it could even go on the wrong side and benefit severe season.The Equatorial temp anomaly is already showing some warm areas trying to upwell even east of the IDL,So we basically have seen Nina peak,if it holds on a few more weeks.Severe season looks good to me,especially early season.We should have one more cold snap first of Feb.,then games on ,what it looks to me right now

Meant to post back sooner.When i get back from Chicago i will do this.But you need to help out this time as well with other posters here,this is really time consuming,and i know others can chime in which would benefit the thread as well.We have some good posters here now and it's growing.So everyone should chime in from time to time with thoughts