Powerball

Not really sure why it looks like this, but it shows the cap has weakened significantly...

Yes, that's it. Right behind it, Mineral Wells is at 92*F.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 82 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North and central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple supercells are expected to develop along the dryline, first near the Waco vicinity and eventually farther north towards the Metroplex. Large hail up to baseball size should be the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Sherman TX to 30 miles southeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79...WW 80...WW 81... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Grams

Called it, lol... Mesoscale Discussion 0346 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021 Areas affected...Parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092059Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered intense thunderstorms increasingly possible through 5-6 PM, accompanied by the risk for large, potentially damaging, hail and locally strong surface gusts. A severe weather watch may be needed within the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...The deepening moist boundary layer has become strongly unstable along/east of the dryline which is still just west of the Interstate 35 corridor, across north central through central Texas. As mid-level troughing begins to overspread this region, it appears that cooling aloft is contributing to weakening of initially strong mid-level inhibition. Initial attempts at thunderstorm development may be underway to the west of the dryline, based on recent satellite imagery, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development appears possible through 22-23Z. Strongest deep-layer shear, beneath the high-level jet of lower-latitude Pacific origin, is generally south of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, between Waco and San Antonio, where potential for supercells currently seems highest. This probably will be accompanied by a risk for large, potentially damaging hail, and locally strong surface gusts into early evening. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/09/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 32539781 32609689 30859676 29859735 29379815 29539867 29889878 30729831 32539781

The area circled below (the line of agitated CU ) is going to be the place to watch for any storms that first initiate along the dry line...

Yes. A very strong one at that.

18z sounding from FWD. They're going to do another sounding at 21z

18z 3km NAM does pop one lone cell over parts of Dallas County later today.

Dry line is already entering the western half of DFW. We'll see if it does slows down, or if it moves through and sets up shop just east of the Metroplex like the GFS has been showing.

The cloud deck has finally moved to the east, so now it's just waiting to see what happens as temps surge.

A cluster of storms (which will likely become severe for the Arklatex region later) did blow up just to the NE, on the nose of the LLJ.

I can hear the dad laugh in my head as I read that.

Between the tragic incident earlier and now this, it's just not their day.

Well technically, it still shows the tiniest bit of mixed level CINH, but I've seen storms break through that easily. So it's understandable why FWD has been so ominous in their discussion, especially with the strong surface convergence from the dry line. The 3km NAM does make a valiant attempt at breaking the cap though. I just took a look at the HRRR's forecasted sounding where this evening's supercell in Central TX originated, and it had similar CINN values to what the HRRR's advertising for tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Pretty insane sounding at 22z over the eastern half of DFW. Cap is virtually gone too.

The EURO was already an outlier when they issued the outlook this morning.

And 1 new SPC outlook later, DFW has gone from being in the enhanced risk area to barely being in the slight risk area, lol..

There was apparently quite a bit of correspondence with the NWS branches for this outlook, according to FWD.. Pretty ominous AFD from them, although I'm still not seeing it in the cards for the Metroplex due to capping... 542 FXUS64 KFWD 081058 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 ...Significant Severe Weather Episode Expected Across Most Of North Texas Into Eastern Central Texas Late Friday Afternoon Into Friday Night... As has been discussed in recent long term discussions the past 24-48 hours, it appears a fairly significant severe weather episode is taking shape for specifically areas east of US-281 in North Texas into our East Texas counties late Friday afternoon into Friday night, specifically the evening hours. Large to very large hail will be the primary concerns to go along with an additional risk for localized damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado across our far eastern counties. First the hail threat. A surface low with a trailing surface dryline to the south will move progressively southeast from NW TX and the Big Country into the Eastern Hill Country and western Central TX by 00z Saturday (or early evening Friday). This will be in response to mid level height falls out in advance of a vigorous shortwave expected to arrive Friday evening. In advance of this feature, the left-exit region of a 110-120 knot upper jet maximum will be moving from the Permian Basin and across SCentTX into SE TX. Impressive low level warm advection from 35-45 low level flow within the 925mb-850mb layer will help to transport moisture-rich air from the TX Coast and nearshore waters north-northeast across areas along and east of I-35 corridor as evidenced by surface dew point temperatures in the mid-upper 60s. Throw in warm spring temperatures well into the 80s across most areas east of the approaching dryline and we`re staring at late day SB/MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG to go along with VERY STEEP mid level lapse rates between 8-9 deg C/km aloft. Kinematically, this thermodynamic environment will correlate with westerly deep layer shear on the order of 40-45 knots. After correspondence with SPC it was agreed that the European model would be the preferred model on trends with the surface low, cold front, and dryline (not as far east and mixing out surface moisture as much as the GFS and not exhibiting too cool of a bias east of the dryline, thus keeping the area more capped with less convective initiation and/or keep storms strictly "elevated"). South of the surface low and behind the dryline late Friday afternoon, hot temperatures in the lower-mid 90s will correlate with very dry air and breezy west or northwest winds for an elevated wildfire threat south of I-20 and especially along and west of US-281. If not for the latest green up the past month, we`d be likely looking at higher ERC-G values and a more critical wildfire threat. As all these variables and parameters come together, the initially strong capping inversion in the 850mb-700mb layer should lift, moisten, and weaken across much of the area during the evening rush hour for at least isolated to scattered storms to begin developing from the DFW Metro north and east. With the impressive free lift noted in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 deg C), we are staring at the prospects of seeing intense updrafts aloft with hail similar to what was seen in both the Denton to Wylie and Dallas/Van Alstyne hail events of the past decade when it comes to hail size. Might as well throw in the early April event of 2003 as well as historical analogs from forecast point soundings of several models show events that contained golfball to even baseball or softball size hail. Considering the curved low level profile through 850mb veering and lengthening above that, and a weakening cap from mid afternoon through early evening, discrete supercell tstorms will be possible. I believe the cap should hold most areas during this time for hail to be the main threat and impact, though storms will approach becoming surface-based by early Friday evening ahead of an advancing cold front arriving from OK into North-Central TX. The best bet for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be east of the DFW Metroplex and across areas east of Hwy 75 in the north and along and east of I-45 in Central Texas. The one mitigating factor for higher tornado threat will be relatively weak and veering low level 0-1 km flow 5-15 knots, as the strong low level 40 knot+ winds migrate east of our the area by evening. This will shift the greater tornado and damaging wind threat further east toward the Piney Woods/AR-LA-TX east into the Lower MS Valley, which is the eastern half of the newly issued Enhanced Risk from SPC across this region. As we enter the nighttime hours post- sunset, the vigorous mid level shortwave will be tracking toward the LA/TX border region and help draw the strong cold front over OK southward into North Texas through midnight. Previous discrete modes will transform more into a squall line (or linear MCS if you prefer) to track south- southeast from east of US 287/I-35W in North TX through our far eastern counties from mid evening into the early pre-dawn hours. At this time, I expect primarily a damaging wind threat to go along with lower end severe hail in the range of quarter to possible half dollar size with updraft strength not being quite as intense due to interruption from other storms along the line.

It has potential. Highly conditional setup this far west though.

Haven't the past several years been a "Dixie Alley" year? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2

The only thing that seems to be guaranteed is that we're going to be dealing with a worsening Spring drought.

BTW, I guess any event that's not the end of the world is just going to be a glorified Special Weather Statement now...

I miss Snow Advisories and Heavy Snow Warnings.

Is there an inside joke that I'm missing?