SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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2 weeks go out to Feb 10. There's a rain event this weekend and not much else afterwards. So I'm not wrong
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The definition of a blah, boring pattern next 2 weeks. Temps a bit above normal, a lot of cloudy, murky days, very early March like which sucks.
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2nd half of Feb is definitely workable.
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Yes we get it lol
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Not surprised to see models back off the torch for the northeast to start Feb. MJO 6/7 is not warm for us in a Nino for Feb. 7 is actually a colder signal. Still think we average slightly above normal but no 60s & 70s like some thought. Even 50s may be difficult
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Airmass is very poor. You'd need a strong dynamic system to pull in colder air. Maybe a rain/snow mix towards the end, no accumulation
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Oh wow a few barely below normal months against the warmest 30 year averages vs an infinite number of top 5-10 warmest months over past decade You really got us with that one.
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We're just slowly roasting in that pot until it's too late
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Euro is overdoing it. I don't see a strong cutter that will generate this kind of warmth. GFS will win out imo
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What a dreary week coming up.
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Works for me. If it's not going to snow I prefer mild weather. Unfortunately it looks like we'll have some rain/clouds with it though. GFS does keep us on the colder side of the gradient though
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We'll get opportunities for sure. I still think we could get at least one KU style storm a la 82/83 this winter. Watching end of Jan with that PNA spike and then mid Feb with Nino climo + potential blocking setting up. +PNA should be transient but ensembles have been trending more amplified with it which should cause more cold air in the east. March is a wild card but could be active.
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Significant PNA spike to end January prior to a warmer pattern. I could see a storm there.
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I'm not sure. I actually think models could waffle quite rapidly over next few days. MJO wreaking havoc at the moment.
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Winter '23-'24 Will Be A Lesson In Relativity
SnoSki14 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
This is not a typical Nino response. We might get skunked again -
So everything is closed for an inch of snow lol. How embarrassing Models trending south and drier.
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Ratios would have to be like 1:20 or greater based on what models show. It's bizarre and I'm seeing schools shutting down left & right already.
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Where are they getting these forecasts from. Models don't show more than 3" across the entire area. I would go with 1-3" area wide with local spots further south at 2-4"
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Phase 6/7 +ENSO is not that warm for us. It's no surprise how muted the warmup looks on the GFS. A lot of eastern Canada highs scooting east, even leaves open ice threats around here.
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MJO is concerning regarding February. Hopefully they're being too slow with it again. MJO 7 is better than 6 which is why EPS looks a lot better than GEFS right now. I do think February will still be good but the best could hold off until week 2-3. March could also be unusually snowy & active too. A lot of central/east strong Ninos has snows late. And in the -PDO era March looks better as wavelengths change.
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We used to get teens for highs
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It would be nice to score another 2-4" event
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So how's that Mid-Atlantic snowstorm coming along? And we don't live high up. Surface temps will be a lot colder than you think.
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This storm is definitely happening because we're torching not long afterwards.
